Beatrice Pierluigi
- 12 January 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box reviews how the ECB’s communication on the economic outlook has evolved over time and how it compares with that of two other major central banks. Standard metrics reveal that over time the communication on the economic outlook has gradually become clearer, making monetary policy more transparent and effective. The ECB’s communication differs from that of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve Board, reflecting the differences in their monetary policy strategies. The ECB uses the term “money” more often, while the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve Board communicate the terms “unemployment” and “slack” more frequently. Textual analysis underscores the importance of narratives in communicating quantitative economic forecasts. To build informative narratives, the ECB relies on a wide range of economic models, tools and surveys.
- JEL Code
- E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 18 December 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2344Details
- Abstract
- We review the determinants of the discretionary fiscal policy action of governments in the euro area and in other advanced economies during the past 20 years. This is done by estimating fiscal reaction functions using dynamic panel techniques and country-by-country estimates. The results suggest that, on average, discretionary fiscal policy did not deliver economic stabilisation: during good economic times (positive output gaps) it has been on average pro-cyclical both in the euro area and in the other regions. However, the loosening bias during good times has been countered by the presence of efficient public institutions, higher long term interest rates and higher debt-to-GDP ratios. Overall, as a result of various counterbalancing forces, fiscal activism has not been a major feature of policy making in the euro area, nor in other advanced economies during the past 20 years.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
- 29 October 2018
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2189Details
- Abstract
- This paper presents new evidence on the importance of insolvency frameworks for private sector debt deleveraging and for the resolution of non-performing loans (NPL). We construct an aggregate insolvency framework index (IFI), which is used as explanatory variable in the empirical analysis. By means of panel estimates over 2003-2016, we show that OECD countries with better IFI deleverage faster and adjust their NPL levels more rapidly than countries with worse IFI. We also show that there is a strong correlation between the level of NPL and IFI, which appears to be state-dependent, i.e. in a situation of high unemployment relative to its historical average the NPL ratio is generally lower for a higher IFI. Finally, our results indicate that better insolvency frameworks lead to faster NPL reductions and to lower NPL increases during economic bad times.
- JEL Code
- C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E02 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Institutions and the Macroeconomy
E05 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
- 25 June 2018
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 211Details
- Abstract
- This occasional paper reviews the macroeconomic developments in the euro area countries over the past 20 years. It analyses the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in the first decade of the EMU and their unwinding during the second decade. It shows that while flow imbalances have been corrected to a large extent, stock imbalances persist. The presence of large stock imbalances implies that the adjustment process needs to continue in the years to come. Accordingly, this paper reviews the national responses so far and the importance of well-functioning national economic structures for facilitating the adjustment process within the EMU. It shows that national structural policies are able to stimulate the supply side of the economy, increase adjustment capacity and mitigate the adverse growth effects of high debt and deleveraging. Finally, it gives an overview of the European response to address macroeconomic imbalances, i.e. the establishment of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP). The MIP has contributed to increasing the general attention given to macroeconomic imbalances in the euro area and to the critical role that structural reforms play in facilitating their adjustment. Looking forward, further steps would appear to be warranted in order to move from greater awareness towards stronger ownership and implementation of reforms.
- JEL Code
- E02 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Institutions and the Macroeconomy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
- 22 March 2018
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018Details
- Abstract
- The box looks at the fiscal policy stance in the euro area during past expansionary periods and the extent to which good economic times have been used to build fiscal buffers. It argues that the midly countercyclical or broadly netrual stance that prevailed during the expansionary phase before the financial crisis was not sufficient to built adequate buffers fo the following recession.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H60 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→General
- 2 February 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2011Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the link between sovereign ratings and macroeconomic fundamentals for a group of euro area countries which recorded rating downgrades amid the euro area sovereign debt crisis. We apply an elaborated econometric estimation technique, based on a Bayesian ordered probit model, to understand how the decisions of rating agencies can be explained by economic developments. The estimated model re-produces historical ratings by using a small number of economic and institutional variables, which seem to effectively summarize the large number of criteria used by Moody
- JEL Code
- C25 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, Discrete Regressors, Proportions
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
H68 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
- 14 September 2016
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1963Details
- Abstract
- This paper shows that initial cross-country institutional differences can explain to a substantial extent the relative GDP performance of European countries since 1995, after controlling for the initial level of GDP per capita and government debt. It shows that improving the quality of institutions could lead to significantly higher per capita GDP. It also shows that an initial government debt level above a threshold (e.g. 60-70%) coupled with institutional quality below the EU average tends to be associated with particularly poor subsequent real growth performance during this period. Interestingly, the detrimental effect of high debt levels seems cushioned by the presence of very sound institutions. This might be because good institutions help to alleviate the debt problem in various ways, e.g. by ensuring sufficient fiscal consolidation in the longer-run, allowing for better use of government expenditures and promoting sustainable growth, social fairness and more efficient tax administration. The results are confirmed across a large sample of countries, also including OECD countries outside Europe. The empirical findings on the importance of institutions are robust to various measures of output growth, different measures of institutional indicators, different sample sizes, different country groupings and to the inclusion of additional control variables. Overall, the results tend to support the call for structural reforms in general and reforms enhancing the efficiency of public administration and regulation, the rule of law and the fight against rent-seeking and corruption in particular.
- JEL Code
- O43 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Institutions and Growth
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E02 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Institutions and the Macroeconomy
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
- 13 February 2013
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1512Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we show that higher flexibility, measured by lower wage and price mark-ups leads to reduced inflationary pressures, increase in competitiveness, and higher output. A rational expectation and a learning version of the ECB
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
- 5 January 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1284Details
- Abstract
- A small labour market model for the six largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium) is estimated in a state -space framework. The model entails, in the long run, four driving forces: a trend labour force component, a trend labour productivity component, a long-run inflation rate and a trend hours worked component. The short run dynamics is governed by a VAR model including six shocks. The state-space framework is convenient for the decomposition of endogenous variables in trends and cycles, for shock decomposition, for incorporating external judgement, and for running conditional projections. The forecast performance of the model is rather satisfactory. The model is used to carry out a policy experiment with the objective of investigating whether euro area countries differ in the labour market adjustment to a reduction in labour costs. Results suggest that, following the 2008-09 recession, moderate wage growth would significantly help delivering a more job-intense recovery.
- JEL Code
- C51 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- 4 July 2008
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 90Details
- Abstract
- This study presents some stylised facts on wage growth differentials across the euro area countries in the years before and in the first eight years after the introduction of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in 1999. The study shows that wage growth dispersion, i.e. the degree of difference in wage growth at a given point in time, has been on a clear downward trend since the early 1980s. However, wage growth dispersion across the euro area countries still appears to be higher than the degree of wage growth dispersion within West Germany, the United States, Italy and Spain. Differences in wage growth rates between individual euro area countries and the euro area in the years before and in the first eight years after the introduction of EMU appear to be positively related to the respective differences between their Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) infl ation and average HICP inflation in the euro area. Conversely, relative wage growth differentials across euro area countries have been somewhat unrelated to relative productivity growth differentials. Some countries combine positive wage growth differentials and negative productivity growth differentials vis-
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
C10 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→General
- 30 June 2008
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 912Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the role of wage moderation and labour and product market regulation for employment creation. To this end, labour demand estimates are presented for the five largest euro area countries at the aggregate level and for three macro sectors: manufacturing, construction and services. Estimates are carried out for individual countries as well as for the pooled group of countries. This paper shows that labour cost moderation generally helps employment creation, notwithstanding the fact that elasticities of employment to labour costs vary across the countries and sectors analysed. It also shows that some key institutional/structural variables add to the explanation of labour demand developments. In particular, in some countries and sectors, our results point to a negative link between employment growth, the unemployment benefit replacement rate and product market regulation.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J23 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Demand
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
- 22 May 2006
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 45Details
- Abstract
- The aim of this study is to investigate the extent to which the dispersion of real GDP growth rates has changed over the past few years and whether the synchronisation of business cycles has increased among the euro area countries. The study is divided into two main parts. The first focuses on the dispersion of real GDP growth rates across the euro area countries, while the second studies the synchronisation of business cycles within the euro area. The study shows first that dispersion of real GDP growth rates across the euro area countries in both unweighted and weighted terms has no apparent upward or downward trend during the period 1970-2004 as a whole. Second, since the beginning of the 1990s, the dispersion of real GDP growth rates across the euro area countries has largely reflected lasting trend growth differences, and less so cyclical differences, with some countries persistently exhibiting output growth either above or below the euro area average. Among other things, this might be due to different trends in demographics, as well as to differences in structural reforms undertaken in the past. Thirdly, the degree of synchronisation of business cycles across the euro area countries seems to have increased since the beginning of the 1990s. This finding holds for various measures of synchronisation applied to overall activity and to the cyclical component, for annual and quarterly data, as well as for various country groupings. In particular, the degree of correlation currently appears to be at a historical high. In addition to these main findings, certain other stylised facts on dispersion and synchronisation are presented.
- JEL Code
- C10 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General