Massimo Ferrari Minesso
International & European Relations
- Division
International Policy Analysis
- Current Position
-
Team Lead - Economist
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,International Economics,Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
- Education
- 2013-2017
PhD in Economics, Catholic University of Milan
- Awards
- 2017
Best PhD thesis award, Società Italiana degli Economisti (SIE)
- Teaching experience
- 2015-
Macroeconomics, Catholic University of Milan
- 7 October 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2987Details
- Abstract
- Using a new series of crypto shocks, we document that money market funds’ (MMF) assets under management, and traditional financial market variables more broadly, do not react to crypto shocks, whereas stablecoin market capitalization does. U.S. monetary policy shocks, in contrast, drive developments in both crypto and traditional markets. Crucially, the reaction of MMF assets and stablecoin market capitalization to monetary policy shocks is different: while prime-MMF assets rise after a monetary policy tightening, stablecoin market capitalization declines. In assessing the state of the stablecoin market, the risk-taking environment as dictated by monetary policy is much more consequential than flight-to-quality dynamics observed within stablecoins and MMFs.
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
- 21 March 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Recent volatility in oil and gas prices has rekindled interest in understanding how much fundamental factors – global supply and demand – and non-fundamental factors contribute to price movements. This box constructs indices of speculation based on futures positions. Overall, speculation has only a limited role in both oil and gas price dynamics, although the degree of speculation is somewhat higher in European gas markets than in US gas markets. Empirical estimates also suggest that the role of speculation in amplifying the transmission of fundamental shocks to oil prices is limited, including in times of heightened geopolitical risk.
- JEL Code
- Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
F01 : International Economics→General→Global Outlook
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
- 13 February 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2907Details
- Abstract
- We develop a two-country DSGE model with financial frictions to study the transition from a steady-state without CBDC to one in which the home country issues a CBDC. The CBDC provides households with a liquid, convenient and storage-cost free means of payments which reduces the market power of banks on deposits. In the steady-state CBDC unambiguously improves welfare without disintermediating the banking sector. But macroeconomic volatility in the transition period to the new steady-state increases for plausible values of the latter. Demand for CBDC and money overshoot, thereby crowding out bank deposits and leading to initial declines in investment, consumption and output. We use non-linear solution methods with occasionally binding constraints to explore how alternative policies reduce volatility in the transition, contrasting the effects of restrictions on non-residents, binding caps, tiered remuneration and central bank asset purchases. Binding caps reduce disintermediation and output losses in the transition most effectively, with an optimal level of around 40% of steady-state CBDC demand.
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 12 February 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2905Details
- Abstract
- This paper develops a Bayesian VAR model to identify three structural shocks driving the European gas market: demand, supply and inventory shocks. We document how gas price fluctuations have a heterogeneous pass-through to euro area prices depending on the underlying shock driving them. The pass-through is stronger and more persistent when gas prices are driven by aggregate demand or supply pressures, while inventory shocks have a weaker impact. Supply shocks, moreover, are found to pass through to all components of euro area inflation – producer prices, wages and core inflation, which has implications for monetary policy. We finally document how the response of gas prices to shocks is non-linear and is significantly magnified in periods of low unemployment.
- JEL Code
- C50 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→General
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 9 January 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2023Details
- Abstract
- The reaction of oil prices to geopolitical shocks depends on the country of origin. Empirical analysis suggests that instances of rising geopolitical tensions generally put downward pressure on oil prices, reflecting weaker global demand on the back of lower economic activity. However, geopolitical events in some major oil-producing countries may lead to increases in oil prices amid expectations by market participants of disruptions to future oil supply. Oil price pressures arising from these adverse shocks are typically short-lived and disappear after one quarter. However, recent heightened geopolitical uncertainty stresses the need to identify the nature of these shocks to disentangle their effects on oil prices and inflation.
- JEL Code
- Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
F01 : International Economics→General→Global Outlook
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
- 21 June 2023
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - BOXThe international role of the euro 2023Details
- JEL Code
- :
- 28 September 2022
- THE ECB BLOGDetails
- JEL Code
- D53 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Financial Markets
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 25 July 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2684Details
- Abstract
- This paper quantifies the pass-through of a US dollar appreciation on trade variables and domestic financial conditions in a panel of 34 countries. Pass-through coefficients are highly shock-dependent: if the appreciation is driven by a US expansionary shock, the positive effects of stronger global demand - the “real” channel dominate the negative effects of a stronger dollar - the “exchange rate” channel. As a result, a positive US demand (supply)-drive appreciation expands global trade and stock valuations up to 2.2 (2.5) and 8% (15%) respectively, while if the appreciation is driven by a monetary policy shock the sign is opposite, leading to a contraction in the order of 2.5% (3%) depending on the country. The coefficients also exhibit a large degree of cross-country heterogeneity, we find that financial and trade exposure to the US, trade openness and USD invoicing shares explain up to 60% of the USD pass-through after demand and supply shocks. Cross-country differences, instead, are not explained by dollar invoicing if monetary policy or risk shocks determine USD movements. We explain this finding with the endogenous policy reaction of monetary authorities in emerging markets that stabilizes the exchange rate against the dollar and weakens the invoicing channel of dollar shocks.
- JEL Code
- F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 12 July 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2678Details
- Abstract
- This paper presents DSGE Nash, a toolkit to solve for pure strategy Nash equilibria of global games in macro models. Although primarily designed to solve for Nash equilibria in DSGE models, the toolkit encompasses a broad range of options including solutions up to the third order, multiple players/strategies, the use of user-de_ned objective functions and the possibility of matching empirical moments and IRFs. When only one player is selected, the problem is re-framed as a standard optimal policy problem. We apply the algorithm to an open-economy model where a commodity importing country and a monopolistic commodity producer compete on the commodities market with limits to entrance. If the commodity price becomes relevant in production, the central bank in the commodity importing economy deviates from the _rst best policy to act strategically. In particular, the monetary authority tolerates relatively higher commodity price volatility to ease barriers to entry in commodity production and to limit the market power of the dominant exporter.
- JEL Code
- C63 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computational Techniques, Simulation Modeling
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
- 14 June 2022
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - BOXThe international role of the euro 2022
- 18 June 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2568Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we explore the cross-country implications of climate-related mitigation policies. Specifically, we set up a two-country, two-sector (brown vs green) DSGE model with negative production externalities stemming from carbon-dioxide emissions. We estimate the model using US and euro area data and we characterize welfare-enhancing equilibria under alternative containment policies. Three main policy implications emerge: i) fiscal policy should focus on reducing emissions by levying taxes on polluting production activities; ii) monetary policy should look through environmental objectives while standing ready to support the economy when the costs of the environmental transition materialize; iii) international cooperation is crucial to obtain a Pareto improvement under the proposed policies. We finally find that the objective of reducing emissions by 50%, which is compatible with the Paris agreement's goal of limiting global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius with respect to pre-industrial levels, would not be attainable in absence of international cooperation even with the support of monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
- 2 June 2021
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - SPECIAL FEATUREThe international role of the euro 2021
- 2 June 2021
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - BOXThe international role of the euro 2021
- 2 June 2021
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - BOXThe international role of the euro 2021
- 27 January 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2516Details
- Abstract
- This paper proposes a new methodology based on textual analysis to forecast U.S. recessions. Specifically, the paper develops an index in the spirit of Baker et al. (2016) and Caldara and Iacoviello (2018) which tracks developments in U.S. real activity. When used in a standard recession probability model, the index outperforms the yield curve based forecast, a standard method to forecast recessions, at medium horizons, up to 8 months. Moreover, the index contains information not included in yield data that are useful to understand recession episodes. When included as an additional control to the slope of the yield curve, it improves the forecast accuracy by 5% to 30% depending on the horizon. These results are stable to a number of different robustness checks, including changes to the estimation method, the definition of recessions and controlling for asset purchases by major central banks. Yield and textual analysis data also outperform other popular leading indicators for the U.S. business cycle such as PMIs, consumers' surveys or employment data.
- JEL Code
- E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C25 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, Discrete Regressors, Proportions
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
- 23 November 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2490Details
- Abstract
- In this paper, we apply textual analysis and machine learning algorithms to construct an index capturing trade tensions between US and China. Our indicator matches well-known events in the US-China trade dispute and is exogenous to the developments on global financial markets. By means of local projection methods, we show that US markets are largely unaffected by rising trade tensions, with the exception of those firms that are more exposed to China, while the same shock negatively affects stock market indices in EMEs and China. Higher trade tensions also entail: i) an appreciation of the US dollar; ii) a depreciation of EMEs currencies; iii) muted changes in safe haven currencies; iv) portfolio re-balancing between stocks and bonds in the EMEs. We also show that trade tensions account for around 15% of the variance of Chinese stocks while their contribution is muted for US markets. These findings suggest that the US-China trade tensions are interpreted as a negative demand shock for the Chinese economy rather than as a global risk shock.
- JEL Code
- D53 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Financial Markets
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
- 19 November 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2488Details
- Abstract
- We examine the open-economy implications of the introduction of a central bank digital currency (CBDC).We add a CBDC to the menu of monetary assets available in a standard two-country DSGE model with financial frictions and consider a broad set of alternative technical features in CBDC design. We analyse the international transmission of standard monetary policy and technology shocks in the presence and absence of a CDBC and the implications for optimal monetary policy and welfare. The presence of a CBDC amplifies the international spillovers of shocks to a significant extent, thereby increasing international linkages. But the magnitude of these effects depends crucially on CBDC design and can be significantly dampened if the CBDC possesses specific technical features. We also show that domestic issuance of a CBDC increases asymmetries in the international monetary system by reducing monetary policy autonomy in foreign economies.
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
- 30 June 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2432Details
- Abstract
- In this paper, I incorporate a complex network model into a state of the art stochastic general equilibrium framework with an active interbank market. Banks exchange funds one another generating a complex web of interbanking relations. With the tools of network analysis it is possible to study how contagion spreads between banks and what is the probability and size of a cascade (a sequence of defaults) generated by a single initial episode. Those variables are a key component to understand systemic risk and to assess the stability of the banking system. In extreme scenarios, the system may experience a phase transition when the consequences of one single initial shock affect the entire population. I show that the size and probability of a cascade evolve along the business cycle and how they respond to exogenous shocks. Financial shocks have a larger impact on contagion probability than real shocks that, however, are long lasting. Additionally I find that monetary policy faces a trade off between financial stability and macroeconomic stabilization. Government spending shocks, on the contrary, have smaller effects on both.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
D85 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Network Formation and Analysis: Theory
- 23 March 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This box presents a simple indicator for US real economic activity based on the textual analysis of newspaper articles. The indicator correlates well with US contractions and NBER recession dates. In order to formally assess the predictive information content of the index, it is included in a regression framework in which US recessions are forecast. Results suggest that the index has good forecasting properties, outperforming a standard yield curve model at short horizons (up to eight months ahead). The text analysis index also improves the forecasting performance of standard yield curve models at longer horizons. Taken together, these results suggest that the index is useful for monitoring and predicting economic developments, particularly over short horizons. This approach also has the advantage of being easily updatable (on a daily basis) and applicable to different countries.
- JEL Code
- C1 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
C25 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, Discrete Regressors, Proportions
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 13 June 2019
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - BOXThe international role of the euro 2019
- 13 June 2019
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - BOXThe international role of the euro 2019
- 25 April 2019
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2019Details
- Abstract
- This box presents a methodology to disentangle four main drivers of EMEs currencies swings: spillovers from US shocks, global risk appetite, interest rate effects and idiosyncratic domestic shocks. The main finding is that while the sell-off - between January and August 2018 - was mainly related to US and global risk factors, the recovery since then is driven by improved domestic conditions.
- JEL Code
- F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
- 2024
- Journal of International Money and Finance
- 2024
- CEPR Discussion Papers
- 2024
- VoxEU
- 2023
- Journal of International Economics
- 2023
- Journal of International Money and Finance
- 2023
- Economic Policy
- 2023
- VoxEu
- 2022
- SUERF Policy Brief
- 2022
- Journal of Applied Econometrics
- 2022
- IMF Economic Review
- 2022
- Journal of Monetary Economics
- 2021
- Journal of Banking & Finance
- 2021
- VoxEu
- 2021
- SUERF Policy Brief
- 2020
- International Journal of Central Banking
- 2020
- VoxEu
- 2020
- Italian Economic Journal
- 2017
- Statistical implications of the new financial landscapeThe benefits of using large high frequency financial datasets for empirical analyses: Two applied cases