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Expectations for other variables

This report contains the results for expectations for other variables from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). These results help us to understand how the expectations are formed for the main variables of interest.

In the quantitative questionnaire, respondents are asked to provide their point forecasts for the ECB’s deposit facility rate, the EUR/USD exchange rate and US dollar-denominated oil prices for the current quarter, the following three quarters, the next calendar year and the year after that. As a fourth variable of interest, respondents are asked to provide their point forecasts for the calendar year average annual growth rates for compensation per employee. These growth rates are required for the same calendar years as for expectations for HICP inflation. Since the Q1 2025 round, the SPF also asks respondents for their point forecasts for all other variables for the target periods two calendar years in the future and the longer term.

For more detailed information on the data contact the SPF team at ECB-SPF@ecb.europa.eu.

Chart 1

Expectations for other variables

(interest rate: percentages; exchange rate: USD/EUR; oil prices: USD/barrel; compensation: annual percentage changes)

the ECB interest rate
the USD/EUR exchange rate
USD-denominated oil prices
annual growth in compensation per employee

Source: SPF.

Notes: Please note that values in the chart for years not surveyed were calculated using linear interpolation.