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2017 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2017 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2017 2018 2019 June 2018 June 2019 2022
Mean point estimate 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 56 54 44 48 38 42
Probability distributions 2017 2018 2019 June 2018 June 2019 2022
<-1.0% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.10.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.40.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.81.3
0.0 to 0.4% 1.9 3.2 3.8 3.6 4.13.2
0.5 to 0.9% 6.5 12.3 9.3 13.9 10.77.4
1.0 to 1.4% 29.4 32.8 23.1 31.7 24.719.2
1.5 to 1.9% 49.2 34.2 35.9 33.1 35.032.7
2.0 to 2.4% 9.4 11.4 17.4 11.4 15.921.2
2.5 to 2.9% 1.8 3.7 5.7 3.5 5.78.9
3.0 to 3.4% 0.6 0.9 2.1 0.9 1.83.4
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.61.4
>4.0% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.30.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2017 Q3 core inflation forecasts
  2017 2018 2019 June 2018 June 2019 2022
Mean point estimate 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 35 35 31 33 27 28
Probability distributions 2017 2018 2019 June 2018 June 2019 2022
<-1.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.00.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.10.1
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.30.8
0.0 to 0.4% 4.2 2.9 2.8 3.7 3.22.9
0.5 to 0.9% 27.5 16.5 10.8 18.9 11.87.8
1.0 to 1.4% 50.6 42.0 28.6 42.8 31.721.6
1.5 to 1.9% 13.1 28.7 37.5 25.4 37.937.9
2.0 to 2.4% 2.5 7.1 13.9 6.2 11.519.6
2.5 to 2.9% 0.7 1.8 4.0 1.6 2.66.0
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 0.2 1.2 0.3 0.72.3
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.30.7
>4.0% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.00.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2017 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2017 2018 2019 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2022
Mean point estimate 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.6
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 56 54 45 50 39 42
Probability distributions 2017 2018 2019 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2022
<-1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.30.6
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.60.9
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.3 0.6 1.7 0.8 1.32.3
0.0 to 0.4% 1.0 2.4 4.8 2.6 4.15.1
0.5 to 0.9% 3.7 7.3 11.6 6.6 9.611.6
1.0 to 1.4% 11.2 18.1 20.8 17.3 21.422.8
1.5 to 1.9% 40.5 36.5 31.5 35.5 32.127.1
2.0 to 2.4% 34.1 24.5 19.6 25.3 20.317.3
2.5 to 2.9% 7.2 7.0 6.0 7.7 6.87.2
3.0 to 3.4% 1.3 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.43.2
3.5 to 3.9% 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.81.2
>4.0% 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.50.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2017 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2017 2018 2019 May 2018 May 2019 2022
Mean point estimate 9.2 8.8 8.4 8.8 8.5 8.1
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6
Number of replies 53 51 41 45 36 37
Probability distributions 2017 2018 2019 May 2018 May 2019 2022
<6.5% 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.72.5
6.5 to 6.9% 0.2 0.6 1.5 0.4 1.74.9
7.0 to 7.4% 0.4 1.4 4.2 1.2 4.611.2
7.5 to 7.9% 0.9 4.4 13.0 3.7 12.117.4
8.0 to 8.4% 2.2 17.0 27.6 14.7 27.221.1
8.5 to 8.9% 13.7 36.8 26.8 37.6 27.019.8
9.0 to 9.4% 57.2 25.2 14.4 26.3 14.811.5
9.5 to 9.9% 19.3 8.9 6.2 9.9 6.76.3
10.0 to 10.4% 3.7 3.2 3.2 3.9 2.83.0
10.5 to 10.9% 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.11.3
11.0 to 11.4% 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.60.5
11.5 to 11.9% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.20.3
12.0 to 12.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.20.1
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.10.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0