Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2022
Joint ECB and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Conference
Thursday, 29 and Friday, 30 September 2022
Cleveland, Ohio - hybrid event
The Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the European Central Bank (ECB) will host the conference. It will be held in person in Cleveland, Ohio, and virtually in a hybrid format. The conference will bring together top researchers from academia, central banks, and other policy institutions to present research findings related to inflation.
Loretta J. Mester, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and Philip R. Lane, Member of the ECB’s Executive Board, will provide remarks.
Registration
Registration for virtual attendance will be open through the conference.
The deadline for in-person registration was Friday, 16 September 2022.
In-person attendance is very limited and requires pre-approval. If you are interested in attending in person, please register here and someone will contact you to let you know the status of your request.
Conference event pageAny questions related to this event may be addressed to inflation.conference@clev.frb.org.
Programme
Times are Eastern Daylight Time (CET-6)
* indicates the presenter
- 8:00
- Registration
- 8:40
-
Welcome and opening remarks
Chair: Edward S. Knotek II, Senior Vice President and Associate Research Director, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Ellis W. Tallman, Executive Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Session 1: Inflation and COVID-19
Chair: Christiane Nickel, European Central Bank
- 8:55
-
Understanding Post-Covid Inflation Dynamics
- Jesper Lindé*, Sveriges Riksbank
- Martin Harding, Bank of Canada
- Mathias Trabandt, Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main
Discussant: Pablo Cuba-Borda, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- 9:50
-
The Scars of Supply Shocks
- Martin Wolf*, University of St. Gallen
- Luca Fornaro, Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Discussant: Albert Queralto, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- 10:45
- Break
- 11:05
-
The Inflationary Effects of Sectoral Reallocation
- Sebastian Graves*, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Francesco Ferrante, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Matteo Iacoviello, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Discussant: Michael Weber, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
- 12:00
- Lunch break
- 13:00
-
Policy panel
Chair: Jean-Paul L’Huillier, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Moderator: Steve Liesman, Senior Economics Reporter, CNBC
Panellists:
- Loretta J. Mester, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
-
Session 2: Inflation Expectations
Chair: Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- 14:00
-
Monetary Policy and Anchored Expectations – An Endogenous Gain Learning Model
Laura V. Gáti*, European Central Bank
Discussant: Leonardo Melosi, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
- 14:55
Break
- 15:15
-
Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation
- Ina Hajdini*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- Edward S. Knotek II, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- John Leer, Morning Consult
- Mathieu Pedemonte, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University
Discussant: Maarten van Rooij, De Nederlandsche Bank
- 16:10
-
Unit Cost Expectations and Uncertainty: Firms' Perspectives on Inflation
- Xuguang Simon Sheng*, American University
- Brent Meyer, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Discussant: Olivier Coibion, University of Texas at Austin
- 17:05
-
Networking and Transition to Historic Lobby
- 17:30
-
Reception and Poster Session
In person only, no virtual option
Business Cycles when Consumers Learn by Shopping
Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza*, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Average Inflation Targeting: Time Inconsistency and Intentional Ambiguity
- Chengcheng Jia*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- Jing Cynthia Wu, University of Notre Dame and the National Bureau of Economic Research
Cost-Price Relationships in a Concentrated Economy
- Gustavo Joaquim*, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
- Falk Bräeuning, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
- José Fillat, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
How Do People View Price and Wage Inflation
- Olena Kostyshyna*, Bank of Canada
- Monica Jain, Bank of Canada
- Xu Zhang, Bank of Canada
Imperfect Information, Heterogeneous Demand Shocks, and Inflation Dynamics
- Tatsushi Okuda*, International Monetary Fund
- Francesco Zanetti, University of Oxford
- Tomohiro Tsuruga, International Monetary Fund
What Can We Learn from 60 Years of PCE Inflation Data
- Raphael Schoenle*, Brandeis University
- Dominic Smith, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cross-Country Price and Inflation Dispersion: Retail Network or National Border?
- Georg Strasser*, European Central Bank
- Teresa Messner, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
- Fabio Rumler, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
- 19:30
-
End of day 1
- 8:00
Breakfast
Session 3: Micro Pricing
Chair: Mathieu Pedemonte, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- 8:30
-
The Granular Origins of Inflation and Its International Comovement
- Santiago Ernesto Alvarez-Blaser*, University of Basel
- Raphael Auer, Bank for International Settlements and the Center for Economic and Policy Research
- Sarah Lein, University of Basel
- Andrei Levchenko, University of Michigan
Discussant: Saroj Bhattarai, University of Texas at Austin
- 9:25
-
Supermarket Price Setting on the Two Sides of the Atlantic – Evidence from Scanner Data
- Peter Karadi*, European Central Bank
- Juergen Amann, University of Nottingham
- Javier Sánchez Bachiller, European Central Bank
- Pascal Seiler, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich
- Jesse Wursten, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven
Discussant: Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Bank of Canada
- 10:20
- Break
- 10:40
Pricing under Distress
- Borağan Aruoba*, University of Maryland
- Andrés Fernández, Banco Central de Chile
- Daniel Guzman, UBC
- Ernesto Pastén, Banco Central de Chile
- Felipe Saffie, University of Virginia Darden School of Business
Discussant: Cosmin Ilut, Duke University
- 11:35
Lunch
-
Session 4: Empirical Applications
Chair: Peter Karadi, European Central Bank
- 12:35
-
Endogenous Uncertainty as Transmission Channel of Shocks to Inflation Expectations
- Guido Ascari*, Università di Pavia and De Nederlandsche Bank
- Stefano Fasani, Lancaster University
- Jakob Grazzini, Università di Pavia
- Lorenza Rossi, Lancaster University
Discussant: Pablo Guerron-Quintana, Boston College
- 13:30
Has the Phillips Curve Flattened and Why?
- Yiru Wang*, University of Pittsburgh
- Atsushi Inoue, Vanderbilt University
- Barbara Rossi, Barcelona School of Economics
Discussant: Juan Herreño, University of California-San Diego
- 14:25
-
Undisclosed Material Inflation Risk
- Yaniv Konchitchki*, University of California, Berkeley
- Jin Xie, Peking Universit
Discussant: Francesco D’Acunto, Georgetown University
- 15:20
-
Closing remarks
This programme may be subject to change without notice.