Eighth ECB Annual Research Conference 2023

Welcoming remarks

Luc Laeven, European Central Bank

Welcoming remarks and Session I

Session I

Chair: Luc Laeven, European Central Bank

A monetary policy asset pricing model

Alp Simsek, Yale School of Management (together with Ricardo J. Caballero, Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Inflation and GDP dynamics in production networks: A sufficient statistics approach

Hassan Afrouzi, Columbia University (together with Saroj Bhattarai, University of Texas at Austin)

Discussant: Klaus Adam, University of Mannheim

Coffee break

Session II

Chair: Oscar Arce, European Central Bank

Lending and monitoring: Big tech vs banks

Catherine Casamatta, Toulouse School of Economics (together with Matthieu Bouvard, Toulouse School of Economics, and Rui Xiong, Toulouse School of Management)

Discussant: David Martinez-Miera, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

Invisible primes: Fintech lending with alternative data

Marco Di Maggio, Harvard Business School (together with Dimuthu Ratnadiwakara, Louisiana State University, and Don Carmichael, Upstart Operations)

Discussant: Tobias Berg, Goethe University Frankfurt

Lunch

Session III

Chair: Isabel Vansteenkiste, European Central Bank

Adjustment dynamics during a strategic estimation task

Luminita Stevens, University of Maryland (together with Mel Win Khaw, Microsoft, and Michael Woodford, Columbia University)

Discussant: Martin Ellison, University of Oxford

Predictable forecast errors in full-information rational expectations models with regime shifts

Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (together with André Kurmann, Drexel University)

Discussant: Alexandre N. Kohlhas, University of Oxford

Coffee break

Session IV

Chair: Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank

Jean Monnet Lecture

Postwar reconstruction assistance and local governments in Ukraine

Roger B. Myerson, University of Chicago (together with Oleksandra Keudel, Kyiv School of Economics)

Roger B. Myerson – concluding thoughts

End of day one

Session V

Chair: Simone Manganelli, European Central Bank

Innovation, industry equilibrium, and discount rates

Francesca Zucchi, European Central Bank (together with Maria Cecilia Bustamante, University of Maryland)

Discussant: Nicolas Serrano-Velarde, Bocconi University

Churn and stability: The remarkable heterogeneity of flows among employment, job search, and non-market activities in the U.S. population

Marianna Kudlyak, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (together with Robert E. Hall, Stanford University)

Discussant: Jane Olmstead-Rumsey, London School of Economics

Coffee break

Session VI

Chair: Michael Ehrmann, European Central Bank

Why does the yield curve predict GDP growth? The role of banks

Camelia Minoiu, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (together with Andres Schneider, and Min Wei, both Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

Discussant: Glenn Schepens, European Central Bank

The safety net: Central bank balance sheets and financial crises, 1587-2020

Moritz Schularick, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (together with Niall Ferguson, Hoover Institution, Martin Kornejew, University of Bonn, and Paul Schmelzing, Boston College)

Discussant: Giorgio Primiceri, Northwestern University

Lunch

End of conference