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2017 Q4

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2017 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2017 2018 2019 Sep. 2018 Sep. 2019 2022
Mean point estimate 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 55 54 51 50 45 43
Probability distributions 2017 2018 2019 Sep. 2018 Sep. 2019 2022
<-1.0% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.30.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.91.4
0.0 to 0.4% 0.9 2.4 3.0 3.1 3.23.2
0.5 to 0.9% 3.7 11.5 8.1 12.3 8.87.6
1.0 to 1.4% 28.6 36.2 24.9 33.4 23.216.7
1.5 to 1.9% 59.8 34.2 39.9 32.5 37.133.8
2.0 to 2.4% 4.4 10.8 15.7 12.9 18.121.9
2.5 to 2.9% 1.3 3.4 5.1 3.9 5.58.9
3.0 to 3.4% 0.5 0.7 1.6 1.0 2.13.5
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.51.5
>4.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.11.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2017 Q4 core inflation forecasts
  2017 2018 2019 Sep. 2018 Sep. 2019 2022
Mean point estimate 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.8
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 38 37 35 34 31 27
Probability distributions 2017 2018 2019 Sep. 2018 Sep. 2019 2022
<-1.0% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.10.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.10.1
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.50.7
0.0 to 0.4% 1.8 2.7 3.4 3.0 3.32.6
0.5 to 0.9% 18.9 15.2 9.0 15.2 9.56.6
1.0 to 1.4% 68.1 42.2 31.1 39.6 28.518.7
1.5 to 1.9% 8.9 29.1 35.4 30.3 37.438.8
2.0 to 2.4% 0.8 8.7 14.1 9.3 15.519.1
2.5 to 2.9% 0.3 1.4 4.6 1.5 4.07.8
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 0.2 1.3 0.2 0.94.3
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.21.2
>4.0% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.00.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2017 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2017 2018 2019 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 2022
Mean point estimate 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.6
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3
Number of replies 58 57 52 49 45 39
Probability distributions 2017 2018 2019 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 2022
<-1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.20.6
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.61.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.2 0.3 1.2 0.4 1.32.4
0.0 to 0.4% 0.4 1.6 3.7 1.7 3.75.2
0.5 to 0.9% 1.1 4.9 9.2 4.6 8.610.9
1.0 to 1.4% 3.5 13.2 19.6 12.9 18.723.2
1.5 to 1.9% 22.9 33.9 32.6 34.0 32.327.6
2.0 to 2.4% 60.2 31.0 21.5 30.0 20.715.5
2.5 to 2.9% 9.8 10.6 8.0 11.7 9.27.9
3.0 to 3.4% 1.3 2.6 2.5 2.8 3.13.4
3.5 to 3.9% 0.4 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.91.3
>4.0% 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.50.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2017 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2017 2018 2019 Aug. 2018 Aug. 2019 2022
Mean point estimate 9.1 8.6 8.2 8.5 8.2 7.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5
Number of replies 53 53 47 47 41 37
Probability distributions 2017 2018 2019 Aug. 2018 Aug. 2019 2022
<6.5% 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.2 1.23.4
6.5 to 6.9% 0.2 0.5 1.8 0.7 2.97.1
7.0 to 7.4% 0.3 1.5 5.7 2.2 7.912.7
7.5 to 7.9% 0.8 6.1 16.8 7.4 18.617.4
8.0 to 8.4% 2.3 25.0 34.1 25.4 28.723.2
8.5 to 8.9% 14.8 41.0 24.3 39.2 23.217.6
9.0 to 9.4% 66.2 17.5 9.8 15.9 10.09.4
9.5 to 9.9% 11.4 5.1 3.8 5.5 3.84.7
10.0 to 10.4% 2.5 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.92.1
10.5 to 10.9% 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.91.0
11.0 to 11.4% 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.60.6
11.5 to 11.9% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.20.4
12.0 to 12.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.3
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0