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2018 Q2

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2018 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2018 2019 2020 Mar. 2019 Mar. 2020 2022
Mean point estimate 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 57 54 44 48 37 45
Probability distributions 2018 2019 2020 Mar. 2019 Mar. 2020 2022
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.40.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.71.1
0.0 to 0.4% 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.42.4
0.5 to 0.9% 7.7 6.9 6.6 8.5 6.56.8
1.0 to 1.4% 33.1 24.0 20.9 27.5 20.416.4
1.5 to 1.9% 44.6 43.1 39.6 40.2 36.335.8
2.0 to 2.4% 9.5 16.6 20.3 14.5 22.022.3
2.5 to 2.9% 2.0 4.8 6.7 4.2 8.09.4
3.0 to 3.4% 0.5 1.2 2.0 0.9 2.33.4
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.51.4
>4.0% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.20.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2018 Q2 core inflation forecasts
  2018 2019 2020 Mar. 2019 Mar. 2020 2022
Mean point estimate 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.8
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 39 38 30 34 28 30
Probability distributions 2018 2019 2020 Mar. 2019 Mar. 2020 2022
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.30.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.80.7
0.0 to 0.4% 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.32.7
0.5 to 0.9% 18.8 11.2 8.3 13.7 8.86.8
1.0 to 1.4% 53.2 33.6 25.2 40.2 28.919.5
1.5 to 1.9% 20.9 36.9 40.5 33.9 39.936.1
2.0 to 2.4% 3.0 12.6 17.6 7.9 14.623.0
2.5 to 2.9% 0.6 2.4 4.0 1.2 3.37.1
3.0 to 3.4% 0.3 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.82.5
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.20.9
>4.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.00.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2018 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2018 2019 2020 2018 Q4 2019 Q4 2022
Mean point estimate 2.4 2.0 1.6 2.2 1.8 1.6
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 58 55 44 50 48 43
Probability distributions 2018 2019 2020 2018 Q4 2019 Q4 2022
<-1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.20.5
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.40.8
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.5 1.11.6
0.0 to 0.4% 0.3 1.6 3.3 1.7 3.14.3
0.5 to 0.9% 0.8 4.5 9.5 4.2 7.29.5
1.0 to 1.4% 3.8 12.7 20.0 7.0 13.920.5
1.5 to 1.9% 16.0 30.4 32.3 22.0 30.331.0
2.0 to 2.4% 42.9 32.0 22.1 39.4 27.916.7
2.5 to 2.9% 28.1 12.2 7.5 18.7 10.710.1
3.0 to 3.4% 6.0 3.6 2.4 4.2 3.13.4
3.5 to 3.9% 1.5 1.3 0.8 1.2 1.31.0
>4.0% 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.9 0.80.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2018 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2018 2019 2020 Feb. 2019 Feb. 2020 2022
Mean point estimate 8.3 7.9 7.5 8.0 7.6 7.4
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6
Number of replies 53 50 39 43 36 37
Probability distributions 2018 2019 2020 Feb. 2019 Feb. 2020 2022
<5.5% 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.51.4
5.5 to 5.9% 0.1 0.3 1.4 0.3 0.92.9
6.0 to 6.4% 0.2 1.0 3.2 0.8 2.47.5
6.5 to 6.9% 0.8 3.5 10.0 2.1 7.612.4
7.0 to 7.4% 2.4 15.6 26.4 9.2 23.318.2
7.5 to 7.9% 16.6 33.1 28.0 32.4 27.523.9
8.0 to 8.4% 48.5 28.0 18.6 33.2 22.617.4
8.5 to 8.9% 24.0 11.9 7.7 14.8 9.98.3
9.0 to 9.4% 5.2 4.3 2.7 5.0 3.34.0
9.5 to 9.9% 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.22.1
10.0 to 10.4% 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.50.9
10.5 to 10.9% 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.20.5
11.0 to 11.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.3
11.5 to 11.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
12.0 to 12.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0