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SPEECH
2 October 2026
Integration boosts EU banks’ competitiveness
A true Single Market is key to boosting European banks’ competitiveness, says Vice-President Boris Vujčić. Resilience is a strength, not a constraint. Deeper financial integration and simpler rules will help banks scale up, innovate and support growth.
Read the Vice-President’s speech
SPEECH
30 September 2026
Monetary policy amid overlapping shocks
Overlapping shocks are posing risks to medium-term price stability in the euro area, says Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. The ECB has acted in a timely manner and will continue to calibrate policy with a focus on underlying inflation.
Read Ms Schnabel's speech
THE ECB BLOG
2 October 2026
How firms plan to finance AI adoption
AI has the potential to reshape our economies. The ECB Blog explores the financing of AI investment in two posts. In this one we show that firms expect to rely overwhelmingly on their own resources to finance the transition.
Read The ECB Blog- 2 October 2026
- GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 2 October 2026
- EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (EARLY)
- 2 October 2026
- BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (QUARTERLY)
- 1 October 2026
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 29 September 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 29 September 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 5 October 2026
- Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy 2026: bridging science and practice
- 2 October 2026
- Keynote speech by Boris Vujčić, Vice-President of the ECB, at the tenth annual conference of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB)Annexes
- 2 October 2026
- Slides by Boris Vujčić, ECB Vice-President, at the Tenth annual conference of the European Systemic Risk Board in Frankfurt am Main, Germany
- 1 October 2026
- Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Bank of England and Financial Markets Group’s "The Future of Money" conference in celebration of Charles Goodhart in London, United Kingdom
- 1 October 2026
- Welcome address by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB and Chair of the European Systemic Risk Board, at the tenth annual conference of the ESRB
- 30 September 2026
- Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 8th Annual EC-EIB-ESM Capital Markets Seminar
- 30 September 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Jean-Claude Bourbon and Marie Dancer on 16 and 28 September 2026
- 22 September 2026
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Sébastien Ruche on 15 September 2026
- 18 September 2026
- Interview with Boris Vujčić, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Francesco Canepa on 16 September 2026
- 12 September 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Jean-Christophe Lalay and Maxime Mainguet on 12 September 2026
- 24 August 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Lorenzo Torrisi on 10 August 2026
- 2 October 2026
- AI can reshape our economies. The ECB Blog explores the financing of AI investment in two posts. In this one we show that firms expect to rely overwhelmingly on their own resources to finance the transition.Details
- JEL Code
- D20 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→General
- 24 September 2026
- Speeches and interviews given by policymakers between ECB Governing Council meetings can move financial markets just as much as the monetary policy decisions themselves. This blog shows how they can also help measure the effects of monetary policy on euro area inflation and unemployment.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 15 September 2026
- Around 80% of euro area households do not own stocks or any other market-based financial instruments, unlike their counterparts in the United States. This blog post examines the barriers that keep many Europeans from investing and explores ways to broaden capital market participation.Details
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G51 : Financial Economics
- 2 September 2026
- Synthetic securitisation can free up bank capital. But does that mean banks lend more to firms? This ECB Blog post explores the effects of loan securitisation. We find that banks that issue synthetic securitisations lend marginally more, but also tend to pay more dividends.Details
- JEL Code
- G00 : Financial Economics→General→General
- 1 September 2026
- The drivers of the recent rise in inflation are different from those of the pandemic-era surge. This time the energy supply shock dominates, while demand and public policy stimulus have minor roles. These differences are key to explaining why monetary policy responses differ.Details
- JEL Code
- E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
- 5 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3294Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the information content of the term structure of inflation risks and its usefulness for understanding inflation dynamics. Using prices of traded zero-coupon inflation caps and floors, we develop a robust non-parametric methodology, combined with a Student’s t-copula, to estimate spot and forward risk-neutral densities at short-, medium-, and long-term horizons, i.e., long-horizon risks are identified from liquid instruments alone, at daily frequency, without forward-starting contracts. Focusing on the euro area over 2009-2026, we show that the term structure of inflation risks provides valuable information about the persistence of inflation shocks and the degree to which changes in the inflation outlook become embedded at longer horizons. We also show that there is marked heterogeneity in the macroeconomic and financial conditions associated to inflation risks across horizons: short- and medium-term risks are mainly associated with current inflation, confidence indicators, commodity prices, and near-term macroeconomic risks, whereas long-term risks are more strongly related to monetary and financial conditions. These findings highlight the importance of analysing the entire term structure of inflation risks rather than relying on a single maturity.
- JEL Code
- G13 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Contingent Pricing, Futures Pricing
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 5 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3293Details
- Abstract
- Leveraging the unique setting of unilateral euroisation, this paper examines the spillover effects of euro area monetary policy on Montenegro and Kosovo. Through the lens of a structural VAR model with block exogeneity, it shows that euro area monetary policy shocks can significantly influence output and inflation in these economies, albeit with a delayed response, while contributing only modestly to their overall business cycle fluctuations.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 1 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3292Details
- Abstract
- High-frequency interest rate surprises around Fed announcements do not identify monetary policy (MP) shocks if markets are imperfectly informed. Instead, they can also reflect central bank information (CBI) shocks, when the Fed assesses the economy differently, and Fed-response-to-news (FRN) shocks, when markets misperceive the policy rule. The literature treats these as competing explanations; we show they are distinct, and jointly identify all three from the co-movement of interest rate and equity surprises, their predictability from public news, and heteroskedasticity between FOMC and non-FOMC communication. CBI effects are robust at daily and monthly frequencies; FRN matters only daily. Purging both strengthens monetary policy estimates.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 1 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3291Details
- Abstract
- This study applies a Local Linear Forest (LLF) for wage forecasting in France. The LLF outperforms benchmarks such as Random Walk (RW), Ridge Regressions (RR) and Random Forests (RF). We also show that adding foreign predictors (i.e. measures of real activity, price and wage pressures from Germany and Italy) to French economic variables significantly improves wage predictions in France. The implications of our results are that wage dynamics in France exhibit non-linearity, to a certain extent, and that the better ability of LLFs relative to RFs to fit smooth signals is a valuable feature, especially at times in which wage growth reaches unprecedented levels from an historical perspective.
- JEL Code
- C45 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Neural Networks and Related Topics
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
- 29 September 2026
- LEGAL ACT
- 29 September 2026
- LEGAL ACT
- 25 September 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3290Details
- Abstract
- Macroeconomic policy increasingly requires assessments of risk rather than point forecasts alone. This paper develops a framework to compute impulse responses for scenario probabilities and the full predictive distribution of macroeconomic outcomes. The approach combines a regime-dependent mixture VAR with endogenous state probabilities and heteroskedastic shock identification, complemented by sparse sign and narrative restrictions. Applied to the euro area and U.S., the framework addresses a central policy question following the outbreak of the 2026 Iran war: do geopolitical shocks imply a return to the risk profile observed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, or is this time different? Results show that shocks differ not only in their effects on expected outcomes, but also in how they reshape scenario probabilities, tail risks, and transitions into high-volatility states.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C34 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Truncated and Censored Models, Switching Regression Models
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 24 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETINEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 24 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- EU Member States have committed to substantially increasing defence spending in the coming years. According to Eurosystem staff baseline projections, defence spending – particularly on investment – is a notable factor supporting euro area growth over the short and medium term. Inflation effects are projected to be limited, though price pressures may increase over time. This is especially likely if supply cannot catch up with increased demand or personnel spending continues to dominate in line with past trends, as shown in an empirical analysis for the 27 EU Member States over 1999-2025. The composition of defence spending matters for both short and longer-term growth, with an increase in defence research and development (R&D) key to delivering long-run productivity gains. Illustrative simulations show that catching up to US levels of defence R&D could lift output and, additionally, encourage private sector defence R&D that could raise productivity growth.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H56 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→National Security and War
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
- 24 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box describes the Eurosystem liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations in the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods of 2026, from 6 May to 28 July.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 24 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box extends the Macro-Finance Financial Conditions Index (FCI) framework, originally developed for the euro area, to the United States. The analysis finds close linkages between US and euro area financial conditions, with risk assets playing a dominant role in the transmission of US shocks to euro area financial markets. In particular, changes in market expectations for the stance of US monetary policy affect euro area financial conditions through global risk-asset repricing, even when the ECB’s own policy stance remains unchanged. The findings highlight the importance of spillovers from the United States in shaping euro area financial conditions.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 24 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box presents the latest EUROPOP 2025 population projections for the euro area, documents the revisions compared with the EUROPOP 2023 projections and discusses the economic implications. The latest population outlook is more positive in the medium-run (until 2050) because of stronger net inward migration, which tempers the increase in age-related fiscal expenditure while boosting long-term economic growth. However, in the second half of the century the population is projected to decrease more strongly than previously projected as a result of lower fertility. This will have the opposite effect on public finances and long-term growth.
- JEL Code
- J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
- 24 September 2026
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 146Details
- Abstract
- Cross-border payments are often slow and costly with many regions underserved by current arrangements. In line with the G20 Roadmap for Enhancing Cross-border Payments, several countries and regions, including the euro area, are working to interlink their domestic fast payment systems as a way to improve speed, cost and transparency. Econometric evidence suggests that countries with interlinked systems trade about 4% more with each other – around half of the effect of a trade agreement and a quarter of the effect of a common currency. The trade gains from interlinking fast payment systems are larger in regions with high cross-border payment costs and for systems that allow the settlement of wholesale transactions.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
- 23 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Europe’s competitiveness challenge is increasingly recognised as a scale-up challenge. Firms expanding across the Single Market continue to face regulatory burdens and legal fragmentation throughout their life cycle, increasing the cost and complexity of cross-border operations. This article examines how these barriers affect the ability of firms to scale up and assesses the extent to which the European Commission’s proposal for an optional European corporate form (EU Inc.) could help firms. By introducing a harmonised company law framework, its proposal has the potential to reduce transaction costs, improve legal certainty and facilitate cross-border investment, complementing the objectives of the Single Market and the savings and investments union. Still, EU Inc. is not a silver bullet. Its effectiveness will depend on its final design, take-up by firms, consistent implementation across Member States and complementary progress in capital market integration and reducing broader regulatory fragmentation.
- JEL Code
- K22 : Law and Economics→Regulation and Business Law→Business and Securities Law
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
L51 : Industrial Organization→Regulation and Industrial Policy→Economics of Regulation
L25 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope
- 22 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box discusses the heterogeneous impact on EU countries of China’s rapid industrial transformation, which is reshaping global trade patterns. The similarity between the export structures of China and several EU countries has increased substantially since 2019, particularly in machinery and transport equipment, and is most pronounced in manufacturing-intensive economies, such as Germany. At the same time, China’s goods imports have become less aligned with EU export structures, illustrating China’s decreased reliance on European industrial goods. These developments have coincided with losses in EU export market shares in sectors and destinations where Chinese competition has intensified, although EU exports have remained more resilient in higher-value-added sectors, especially in the US market. These findings illustrate that there are differences across EU countries and sectors in terms of their exposure to China’s industrial rise, reflecting differences in specialisation and integration into global value chains, with implications for policy priorities at the EU and national levels.
- JEL Code
- F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
- 22 September 2026
- CONSULTATION RESPONSE
- 22 September 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3289Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies whether securitisation affects monetary policy transmission via banks. Using granular loan-level data from the euro area, we show that banks actively engaged in securitisation adjust credit supply more strongly in response to monetary policy shocks than a matched sample of non-securitising banks. This is because securitisation expands banks’ lending capacity, but by increasing reliance on investors whose required returns and risk appetite are more sensitive to monetary policy conditions. Following a monetary tightening, these investors demand higher compensation and reduce their exposure to securitised assets, leading securitising banks to contract lending more than other banks. Effects are stronger for loans more likely to be securitised — i.e., to safer borrowers with longer maturities — and are primarily driven by synthetic securitisations, which provide additional capital relief through Significant Risk Transfers. Firms exposed to securitising banks cannot fully substitute tighter loan supply through existing or new bank relationships.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 22 September 2026
- DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 32Details
- Abstract
- Artificial intelligence is transforming financial markets by enabling investors and intermediaries to extract more information from increasingly abundant data through advances in algorithms and computing power. We discuss how AI changes information production and decision-making, labor demand, and financial intermediation, with a particular emphasis on securities markets. We then survey the implications of this transformation for market efficiency, competition, informational frictions, and financial stability.
- JEL Code
- G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- 22 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box analyses developments in US equity markets during the recent AI boom and highlights recent signs of heightened price differentiation within the broader equity market rally. It shows that, over the past years, US equity valuations have been bolstered by strong realised and expected earnings tied to the AI boom. Risk appetite in US equity markets has been strong, with compensation for equity risk falling to relatively low levels during this period. These factors have supported resilience in US stock markets despite pressures from higher longer-term interest rates and geopolitical headwinds. However, a note of caution is warranted, as market sentiment can be subject to sudden shifts and there is heightened risk price differentiation among the tails of higher-risk technology firms within the AI-driven rally.
- JEL Code
- G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
- 21 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- In the Survey on the Access to Financing of Enterprises (SAFE) for the second quarter of 2026, firms were asked about their exposure to the conflict in the Middle East, how the conflict has influenced their expectations, and what coping strategies they have adopted. It found that exposure to the conflict is higher for small and medium-sized enterprises, for exporters and in the trade sector. The conflict has primarily affected firms’ expectations for nominal variables and demand, while the impact on expectations for other real variables is small. The main coping strategies reported by firms include seeking alternative suppliers of energy, raw materials and components, as well as accelerating investment in energy efficiency.
- JEL Code
- C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
Stopy procentowe
| Depozyt w banku centralnym | 2,50 % |
| Podstawowe operacje refinansujące (stała stopa) | 2,65 % |
| Kredyt w banku centralnym | 2,90 % |
Stopa inflacji
Więcej o inflacjiKursy walutowe
| USD | US dollar | 1.1204 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 177.28 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.84720 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9311 |
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