Cyfrowe euro
Eurosystem przygotowuje się do ewentualnej emisji cyfrowego euro jako uzupełnienia gotówki.
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BLOG EBC
9 grudnia 2025
Cyfrowe euro na cyfrowe czasy
Członek Zarządu EBC Piero Cipollone i komisarz europejski Valdis Dombrovskis wyjaśniają, dlaczego Europa potrzebuje cyfrowego euro: odpowiada ono kolejnemu etapowi ewolucji naszego pieniądza oraz służy naszej autonomii strategicznej w epoce cyfrowej.
Blog EBC
ROZLICZALNOŚĆ
3 grudnia 2025
Wysłuchanie w Parlamencie Europejskim
Prezes EBC Christine Lagarde wystąpiła przed Komisją Gospodarczą i Monetarną i odpowiedziała na pytania posłów.
Oświadczenie wstępne
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Więcej informacji- 9 December 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 9 December 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 3 December 2025
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 2 December 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 2 December 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 28 November 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 27 November 2025
- MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNTRelated
- 30 October 2025
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 8 December 2025
- Guest lecture by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management
- 3 December 2025
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European ParliamentAnnexes
- 3 December 2025
- 3 December 2025
- Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 15th workshop on exchange rates, co-organised by Banka Slovenije with the Banca d’Italia, the Bank for International Settlements, the European Central Bank and the Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique
- 26 November 2025
- Presentation slides by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Financial Stability Review press briefing
- 25 November 2025
- Slides by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Central Bank of Ireland's Financial System Conference 2025
- 8 December 2025
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jana Randow and Mark Schrörs on 3 December 2025
- 4 December 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Takerou Minami on 26 November 2025
- 1 December 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Pablo Allendesalazar
- 11 November 2025
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf on 4 November 2025
- 10 November 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Luís Reis Ribeiro
- 9 December 2025
- The ECB plans to prepare for the potential issuance of the digital euro by 2029, assuming the European co-legislators adopt the necessary regulation by 2026. Preparatory steps, including pilot exercises and initial transactions, could begin as early as mid-2027.EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Details
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
- 28 November 2025
- Geopolitical tensions such as the war in Ukraine have shaken Europe’s economies. Understanding the economic impact of such shocks is crucial for monetary policy. This ECB Blog post presents a news-based indicator that tracks country-level geopolitical risk.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
- 20 November 2025
- To bridge Europe’s investment gap, we need both public and private funding. Well-designed EU investment programmes can act as a major catalyst for private capital. As this blog post shows, every euro invested by the EU is matched by private finance, thereby doubling its impact.Details
- JEL Code
- E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
- 19 November 2025
- Our 2025 macroprudential stress test report shows that banks are resilient. But when we look at risks not included in the EU-wide stress test, we see some pockets of vulnerability. These findings support a cautious approach to capital buffers.Details
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 10 November 2025
- Banks consider the climate performance of firms and buildings in their lending policies. The euro area bank lending survey shows that lower climate risks tend to improve credit conditions. Meanwhile, green investments increase loan demand from firms and households.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
- 9 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3164Details
- Abstract
- This study examines how euro area banks factor pollution-induced biodiversity risks into lending decisions, using data from 832 banks and 5,000 major polluters. Our results show that banks are increasingly pricing these risks by adjusting loan-to-value ratios and interest rates. Banks adjust lending conditions in line with EU pollution and biodiversity protection legislation, particularly for companies with large pollution footprints near biodiversity-protected areas or those contributing to Environmental Quality Standards failures of downstream surface waters. The former is driven primarily by banks’ adoption of biodiversity policies and public commitments to the Equator Principles, while the latter is a result of regulatory risks. Our findings inform financial supervisors on how banks manage risks associated with the EU’s zero pollution ambition, shed light on the interplay between biodiversity protection legislation and banks’ lending decisions, and offer actionable guidance on leveraging existing regulatory frameworks to address the climate-biodiversity-pollution nexus.
- JEL Code
- G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Q53 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Air Pollution, Water Pollution, Noise, Hazardous Waste, Solid Waste, Recycling
Q57 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity Conservation, Bioeconomics, Industrial Ecology
- 9 December 2025
- EURO AREA QUARTERLY FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS - QUALITY REPORT
- 8 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3163Details
- Abstract
- This study examines the effect of systematic household misestimation of home prices on financial decisions, including stockholdings, consumption, and asset allocation. Using exogenous variation in house values, mortgage debt, and homeowner misestimation identified through differences in local housing market characteristics, we find that a $60,000 increase in house overvaluation (approximately one standard deviation) results in a 1.1 to 1.9 percent decrease in risky stockholdings, a 1.5 to 4.3 percent increase in consumption, and a 1.3 to 2.5 percent increase in the share of risk-free assets over liquid wealth. The results highlight the need to better understand how housing wealth and beliefs about house values affect portfolio choice, spending, and overall household finance.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
D11 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Theory
D91 : Microeconomics→Intertemporal Choice→Intertemporal Household Choice, Life Cycle Models and Saving
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
C61 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Optimization Techniques, Programming Models, Dynamic Analysis
- 8 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3162Details
- Abstract
- Can rising asset prices reduce wealth inequality? This paper builds a continuous-time heterogeneous-agent general equilibrium in which entrepreneurs hold risky private capital and traditional savers hold safe assets. Safe-asset expansions—via financial innovation, public debt, or a stable equity bubble—operate through a single pass-through: they lower entrepreneurs’ undiversified risk exposure, compress risk premia, and raise the interest rate. This slows entrepreneurial wealth accumulation and redistributes wealth toward traditional savers, so inequality falls even as risky asset valuations rise. Savers gain unambiguously. Entrepreneurs’ welfare is state-dependent: when their wealth share is low, they prefer a higher risk premium and lose from safe-asset expansions; once sufficiently wealthy, they prefer a higher interest rate that protects a larger wealth base and gain.
- JEL Code
- D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy - Network
- ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
- 5 December 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 4 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3161Details
- Abstract
- We employ 68 quarters of data – including from non-public supervisory sources – to study how 17 US and 17 euro-area banks balance the risk of breaching regulatory requirements against the cost of maintaining and speedily restoring “management” buffers. We find that steady-state management buffer targets systematically declined and regulatory risk tolerance (RRT) rose following the Great Financial Crisis, especially at banks experiencing a stronger increase in capital requirements. As a sign that RRT is a conscious choice, banks facing more volatile management buffer shocks set higher management buffer targets. High-RRT banks tend to respond to a depletion of their management buffers by cutting lending, whereas low-RRT banks reduce the riskiness but not the volume of their assets — thus highlighting real-economy effects of capital management strategies.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G31 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Capital Budgeting, Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies, Capacity
- 3 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3160Details
- Abstract
- Using a novel macro-finance model we infer jointly the equilibrium real interest rate r*, trend inflation, interest rate expectations, and bond risk premia for the United States. In the model r* plays a dual macro-finance role: as the benchmark real interest rate that closes the output gap and as the time-varying long-run real interest rate that determines the level of the yield curve. Our estimated r* declines over the last decade, with estimation uncertainty being relatively contained. We show that both macro and financial information is important to infer r*. Accounting for the secular decline in interest rates renders term premia more stable than those based on stationary yield curve models. A previous version of this paper by the same authors entitled “Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality” has been published as ECB Working Paper No 2612.
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
- 3 December 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 381Details
- Abstract
- This report provides a comprehensive overview of the models and tools used for macroeconomic projections within the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). These include semi-structural models, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, time series models and specialised satellite models tailored to particular questions or country-specific aspects. Each type of model has its own strengths and weaknesses and can help answer different questions. The models should therefore be seen as complementary rather than mutually exclusive. Semi-structural models are commonly used to produce baseline projection exercises, since they offer the flexibility to combine expert judgement with empirical data and have enough complexity and structure to provide a good representation of the economy. DSGE models, valued for their internal consistency and strong theoretical foundations, are another core forecasting tool used by some central banks, particularly to analyse counterfactuals. Time series models tend to be better suited to forecasting the short term, while scenario analysis and special events may require satellite models, extensions of existing models or even the development of new models tailored to the question at hand. The report also addresses the challenges to macroeconomic projections posed by data quality, including revisions and missing data, and describes the methods implemented to mitigate their effects. The report identifies “quick wins” to improve the projection process by enhancing the transparency and comparability of results through standardised reporting frameworks and better measurement of the judgement integrated in forecasts. The findings highlight the fundamental role of macroeconomic models in underpinning the ESCB’s projection exercises and ensuring that the Governing Council’s assessments and deliberations rest on coherent, granular and credible analysis of both demand-side and supply-side dynamics.
- JEL Code
- C30 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→General
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 2 December 2025
- DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 28Details
- Abstract
- Euro area insurers manage several trillion euro in assets and take a long-term investment perspective. They hold more alternative and less liquid assets than in the past, partly resulting from the long period of low interest rates until 2022. As a result, their balance sheets have become less liquid and more sensitive to market conditions overall. Meanwhile their holdings of sovereign bonds show significant home bias, which may have even increased with quantitative easing policies. Sovereign bonds also serve as key liquidity source for insurers, who sell sovereign bonds to meet the liquidity needs in response to large claims after natural disasters. Thus, liquidity shocks can spill over from insurance to the sovereign debt markets, increasing market volatility. Capital markets union would likely help insurers diversify their bond portfolios and promote cross-country risk sharing.
- JEL Code
- G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 2 December 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 380Details
- Abstract
- Degraded ecosystems undermine productivity, disrupt supply chains and heighten vulnerability to shocks, creating risks for the real economy and the financial sector. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation also pose a growing risk to price stability, with increasing evidence that ecosystem shocks contribute to inflationary pressures in the euro area. This paper moves from dependency mapping to a risk-based assessment of the euro area economy and banks, applying the nature value-at-risk (NVaR) framework, which links biophysical shocks to ecosystem services with sectoral-production functions1. Water-related risks, including flood protection, surface water and groundwater scarcity, and water quality, emerge as the most material for the euro area economy. Surface-water scarcity alone could expose up to 24% of euro area output to risk under a drought event with a 100-year return period. A complementary endogenous-risk analysis that was conducted, quantified the extent to which euro area firms and banks may contribute to the very ecosystem degradation on which their activities depend, creating feedback loops that could amplify financial risks over time. The results showed material feedback loops between ecosystem degradation and banks’ own portfolios, with water-related risks being the dominant transmission channel. Overall, this study takes a first step towards the identification of risk hotspots and provides a more robust assessment of nature-related risks than prior studies. It also discusses the remaining data gaps and methodological constraints, and outlines the next steps to be taken, as a priority, to address this.
- JEL Code
- Q51 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Valuation of Environmental Effects
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 1 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3159Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides novel empirical evidence on portfolio rebalancing in international bond markets through the prism of investors’ demand for bonds. Using a granular dataset of global government and corporate bond holdings by mutual funds domiciled in the world’s two largest currency areas, I estimate heterogeneous and time varying demand elasticities for bonds. Safe assets such as US Treasuries or German Bunds face especially inelastic demand from investment funds compared to riskier bonds. But spillovers from these safe assets to global bond markets are strikingly different. Funds substitute US Treasuries with global bonds, including risky corporate and emerging market bonds, whereas German Bunds are primarily substitutable within a narrow set of euro area safe government bonds. Substitutability deteriorates in times of stress, impairing the transmission of monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets - Network
- ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
- 1 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3158Details
- Abstract
- I study how demand-supply narrative disagreement between general and specialized newspapers can explain households’ absolute gap in inflation expectations with experts. I measure inflation narratives via a Causality Extraction algorithm that can identify causal relationships between events in a text and, hence, extract the perceived triggers of inflation. Causal relations can explain why narratives affect people’s beliefs and cannot be captured by dictionary methods, topic models, and word embeddings. I then classify inflation narratives into demand and supply narratives based on their focus on demand and supply triggers. I measure narrative disagreement between general and specialized newspapers from their attention difference on demand and supply narratives. The absolute expectation gap widens when narrative disagreement increases, especially for non-college-educated and older households. Unlike the narratives of specialized newspapers, the narratives of general newspapers incorrectly align with experts’ demand-supply views.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
D1 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics
D8 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- 1 December 2025
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
- 27 November 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3157Details
- Abstract
- We empirically examine the role of both official monetary policy announcements and policymakers’ speeches in the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets and the real economy in the euro area. Using intraday data covering a broad cross-section of financial assets, we construct the Euro Area Extended Monetary Policy Event-Study Database (EA-EMPD). We refine the identification of monetary policy surprises by exploiting granular, quote-level data on individual participants’ bid and ask submissions. This novel dataset expands the set of identifiable policy events by an order of magnitude relative to databases based solely on scheduled rate-setting meetings. Our analysis yields three main findings. First, speeches by euro area policymakers exert statistically and economically significant effects on asset prices across maturities, with magnitudes comparable to those observed following official policy announcements. Second, the transmission of speech-induced short-rate changes to the real economy closely mirrors that of policy decisions and combining both types of surprises significantly enhances the precision of statistical inference. Finally, when speeches are included in the measurement of policy surprises, the share of real-economy variance attributable to monetary policy increases fivefold, although its absolute magnitude remains relatively modest.
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
Annexes- 27 November 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 27 November 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES
- 26 November 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box assesses the liquidity risks of UCITS hedge funds during periods of market stress. The UCITS segment combines the elevated synthetic leverage typical of hedge funds with the frequent redemption terms that are typical of UCITS funds. This combination can cause UCITS hedge funds to act as amplifiers of market stress, as they may face simultaneous liquidity pressures from investor redemptions and margin calls on derivatives exposures.
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 26 November 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box presents the business rationale for euro area banks’ US dollar activities and assesses the associated financial stability risks. It finds that euro area banks’ US dollar assets and liabilities are mainly linked to capital market activities and are concentrated in a few global systemically important banks. Banks’ activities represent a diverse set of financial services as they intermediate US dollars to other European parties, in the form of unsecured and secured lending and borrowing, FX swaps and currency hedges. Euro area banks’ US credit exposures are largely limited to holding high-quality debt securities and lending to the non-financial corporate sector. While asset-liability mismatches appear to be limited in extent, banks are exposed to liquidity risks due to mismatches between the specific counterparties providing and receiving funding. These liquidity risks may not materialise in banks’ own balance sheets, as they may deleverage in times of stress, but rather affect their counterparties. Therefore, maintaining adequate balance sheet capacity is necessary to enable banks to act as shock absorbers, given the lack of regulatory requirements for matching asset and liability positions within a given currency.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
- 26 November 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the stabilising role of household investors for investment funds during market stress, with a focus on the April 2025 market turmoil. Households’ long-term investment strategies make them less sensitive to market volatility, which can enhance fund resilience. An analysis of the April 2025 market turmoil and other past market downturns reveals that funds held by households experienced smaller outflows than those dominated by institutional or foreign investors. Following the April 2025 market sell-off, households also reinvested more quickly, further stabilising fund liquidity.
- JEL Code
- D14, G11, G23, G40, G50 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
- 26 November 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Rolling corporate recessions, defined as sequential downturns across specific sectors rather than broad-based economic contractions, offer a potential explanation for the apparent disconnect between heightened corporate vulnerabilities and still-benign bank credit metrics in the euro area. In fact, descriptive evidence suggests that vulnerabilities are increasingly emerging in staggered waves across sectors, rather than uniformly across the economy. When these sectoral vulnerability waves align, rolling recessions can become systemic. As downturns synchronise, sectoral growth correlations spike and NPL dynamics become more clustered, especially in cases where banks have concentrated exposures to specific sectors. This amplifies the risk of correlated credit losses and abrupt tightening in credit supply. Therefore, macroprudential surveillance and policy tools need to move beyond aggregate indicators towards more granular sector, region and borrower-type analysis. This should be underpinned by better data in order to identify pockets of fragility at an early stage and mitigate the non-linear systemic risks arising from rolling recessions.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 26 November 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Trade turmoil in April 2025 saw a marked change in cross-asset behaviour compared with typical patterns. Notably, the US dollar depreciated strongly while US Treasury yields rose – the opposite of what usually happens in a risk-off environment. This prompted discussions as to whether the safe-haven properties of US dollar-denominated assets might be changing. This is particularly important for euro area financial stability since euro area investors hold US dollar-denominated securities in an amount equivalent to €6 trillion, which represents a significant share of their portfolios. As policy uncertainty remains high and alternative safe assets are scarce, investors’ risk management practices may be evolving. Immediate and decisive implementation of policies associated with the savings and investments union and the capital markets union would help foster an alternative market of safe assets for euro area and global investors.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
- 26 November 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEWAnnexes
- 26 November 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
Related- 26 November 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
Stopy procentowe
| Depozyt w banku centralnym | 2,00 % |
| Podstawowe operacje refinansujące (stała stopa) | 2,15 % |
| Kredyt w banku centralnym | 2,40 % |
Stopa inflacji
Więcej o inflacjiKursy walutowe
| USD | US dollar | 1.1634 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 182.32 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.87410 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9356 |
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