2025 Q2
HICP Inflation forecasts
Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat.
2025 Q2 inflation forecasts
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | Mar. 2026 | Mar. 2027 | 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean point estimate | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Standard deviation | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Number of replies | 54 | 54 | 43 | 43 | 34 | 43 |
Probability distributions | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | Mar. 2026 | Mar. 2027 | 2029 |
<-0.8% | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
-0.7 to -0.3% | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
-0.2 to 0.2% | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
0.3 to 0.7% | 1.2 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 |
0.8 to 1.2% | 3.4 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 8.5 |
1.3 to 1.7% | 13.2 | 20.0 | 17.9 | 19.6 | 17.7 | 17.6 |
1.8 to 2.2% | 36.1 | 31.8 | 32.6 | 28.5 | 25.7 | 31.3 |
2.3 to 2.7% | 30.7 | 19.4 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 22.0 | 20.0 |
2.8 to 3.2% | 8.9 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 8.5 |
3.3 to 3.7% | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.2 |
3.8 to 4.2% | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
4.3 to 4.7% | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
>4.8% | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |