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2025 Q2

HICP Inflation forecastsCore HICP inflation forecastsReal GDP growth forecastsUnemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat.

2025 Q2 inflation forecasts

2025

2026

2027

Mar. 2026

Mar. 2027

2029

Mean point estimate

2.2

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

Standard deviation

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.2

Number of replies

54

54

43

43

34

43

Probability distributions

2025

2026

2027

Mar. 2026

Mar. 2027

2029

<-0.8%

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.5

-0.7 to -0.3%

0.2

0.5

0.7

0.6

0.8

0.7

-0.2 to 0.2%

0.5

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.6

0.3 to 0.7%

1.2

3.6

3.3

3.4

3.9

3.2

0.8 to 1.2%

3.4

8.5

7.2

8.9

8.2

8.5

1.3 to 1.7%

13.2

20.0

17.9

19.6

17.7

17.6

1.8 to 2.2%

36.1

31.8

32.6

28.5

25.7

31.3

2.3 to 2.7%

30.7

19.4

20.1

20.1

22.0

20.0

2.8 to 3.2%

8.9

7.8

8.5

9.6

9.9

8.5

3.3 to 3.7%

3.2

3.8

4.1

4.2

4.7

4.2

3.8 to 4.2%

1.2

1.8

2.2

1.8

2.4

2.0

4.3 to 4.7%

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.9

1.4

1.0

>4.8%

0.5

0.6

0.8

0.6

1.1

0.9

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0