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Real GDP growth forecasts
Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.
Mean point estimates (all survey rounds)
| Survey round | Current calendar year |
Next calendar year |
Calendar year after next |
One year ahead | Two years ahead | Longer term (five years ahead) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 Q2 | -0.4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 2013 Q3 | -0.6 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| 2013 Q4 | -0.4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| 2014 Q1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| 2014 Q2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| 2014 Q3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 2014 Q4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| 2015 Q1 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| 2015 Q2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| 2015 Q3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| 2015 Q4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| 2016 Q1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| 2016 Q2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| 2016 Q3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| 2016 Q4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 2017 Q1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2017 Q2 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 2017 Q3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2017 Q4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| 2018 Q1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| 2018 Q2 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 2018 Q3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| 2018 Q4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2019 Q1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| 2019 Q2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 2019 Q3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 2019 Q4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 2020 Q1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 2020 Q2 | -5.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | -2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 2020 Q3 | -8.3 | 5.7 | 2.4 | -0.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2020 Q4 | -7.8 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 12.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 2021 Q1 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 2021 Q2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 2021 Q3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 2021 Q4 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 2022 Q1 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| 2022 Q2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| 2022 Q3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| 2022 Q4 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | -0.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 2023 Q1 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -0.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 2023 Q2 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 2023 Q3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 2023 Q4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 2024 Q1 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 2024 Q2 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 2024 Q3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| 2024 Q4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 |