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Unemployment rate forecasts
The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.
Mean point estimates (all survey rounds)
| Survey round | Current calendar year |
Next calendar year |
Calendar year after next |
One year ahead | Two years ahead | Longer term (five years ahead) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 Q2 | 12.3 | 12.2 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 11.9 | 9.6 |
| 2013 Q3 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 11.8 | 12.4 | 12.0 | 9.7 |
| 2013 Q4 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 11.6 | 9.5 |
| 2014 Q1 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 11.5 | 9.6 |
| 2014 Q2 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 11.7 | 11.2 | 9.5 |
| 2014 Q3 | 11.6 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 11.4 | 10.9 | 9.4 |
| 2014 Q4 | 11.6 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 9.5 |
| 2015 Q1 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 10.3 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 9.4 |
| 2015 Q2 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 10.4 | 9.2 |
| 2015 Q3 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 10.7 | 10.1 | 9.0 |
| 2015 Q4 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 9.2 |
| 2016 Q1 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 9.0 |
| 2016 Q2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 8.8 |
| 2016 Q3 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 8.8 |
| 2016 Q4 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 8.7 |
| 2017 Q1 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 8.5 |
| 2017 Q2 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 8.4 |
| 2017 Q3 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 8.1 |
| 2017 Q4 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 7.9 |
| 2018 Q1 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 7.5 |
| 2018 Q2 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 7.4 |
| 2018 Q3 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.5 |
| 2018 Q4 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 7.5 |
| 2019 Q1 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| 2019 Q2 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
| 2019 Q3 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.3 |
| 2019 Q4 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 |
| 2020 Q1 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.3 |
| 2020 Q2 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 7.7 |
| 2020 Q3 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 7.7 |
| 2020 Q4 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 7.6 |
| 2021 Q1 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 7.4 |
| 2021 Q2 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 7.4 |
| 2021 Q3 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.2 |
| 2021 Q4 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 7.0 |
| 2022 Q1 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.7 |
| 2022 Q2 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.6 |
| 2022 Q3 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.4 |
| 2022 Q4 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 6.6 |
| 2023 Q1 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.4 |
| 2023 Q2 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.5 |
| 2023 Q3 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.5 |
| 2023 Q4 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.5 |
| 2024 Q1 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.5 |
| 2024 Q2 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.4 |
| 2024 Q3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| 2024 Q4 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.4 |