Expectations Surveys, Central Banks and the Economy

Registration and coffee

Welcome speech

Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB

Session 1 – Information frictions and central bank communication

Session chair: Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank

Show and Tell: The Effects of Seeing, Hearing and Perceiving Central Bank Messages

• Michelle Alexopoulos, University of Toronto
• Xinfen Han, Bank of Canada
• Xu Zhang*, Bank of Canada

What Can Measured Beliefs Tell Us about Monetary Non-Neutrality?

• Hassan Afrouzi, Columbia University
• Joel Flynn, Yale University
• Choongryul Yang*, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

Do Firm Expectations Respond to Monetary Policy Announcements?

• Federico Di Pace, Bank of England
• Giacomo Mangiante*, Banca d’Italia
• Riccardo Maria Masolo, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore 

Coffee break

Session 2 – Beliefs, trading and financial markets

Session chair: Patrick Sabourin, Bank of Canada

Mental Models of the Stock Market

• Peter Andre, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research
• Philipp Schirmer*, University of Bonn
• Johannes Wohlfart, University of Cologne

The Impact of Beliefs on Credit Markets: Evidence from Rating Agencies

• Gregory Weitzner, McGill University
• Chen Wang*, University of Notre Dame

Inflation and Trading

• Philip Schnorpfeil, Goethe University Frankfurt
• Michael Weber*, University of Chicago
• Andreas Hackethal, Goethe University Frankfurt

Buffet lunch

Session 3 – Firms, investment decisions and climate

Session chair: Ursel Baumann, European Central Bank

The Speed of Firm Response to Inflation

• Ivan Yotzov*, Bank of England
• Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University
• Philip Bunn, Bank of England
• Paul Mizen, King's College
• Gregory Thwaites, University of Nottingham

The Impact of Interest: Firms’ Investment Sensitivity to Interest Rates

• Lea Best, ifo Institute Munich
• Benjamin Born*, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management
• Manuel Menkhoff, ifo Institute and LMU Munich

Climate Transition Beliefs

• Marco Ceccarelli, VU Amsterdam
• Stefano Ramelli*, University of St Gallen

Coffee break

Session 4 – Monetary policy, heterogeneity and inflation expectations

Session chair: Ioannis Ganoulis, European Central Bank

Bad Luck or Bad Decisions? Macroeconomic Implications of Persistent Heterogeneity in Optimism

• Oliver Pfäuti, The University of Texas at Austin
• Fabian Seyrich*, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management
• Jonathan Zinman, Dartmouth College

Households' Preferences Over Inflation and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs

How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues

• Nicola Gennaioli, Bocconi University
• Marta Leva, Stanford University
• Raphael Schoenle*, Brandeis University
• Andrei Shleifer, Harvard University

Coffee break

Keynote – Financial Literacy: Why Should Central Banks Care

Annamaria Lusardi, Stanford University

Keynote chair: Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB

Poster Session

Tracking Euro Area Wage Growth with the CES

Katarzyna Bankowska, Pedro Baptista*, Colm Bates, Maarten Dossche, Omiros Kouvavas and Athanasios Tsiortas, all European Central Bank

House Price Perceptions and the Housing Wealth Effect

Louiza Bartzoka*, Copenhagen Business School

Why Greek Consumers Are Pessimistic about Their Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the CES

Evangelos Charalambakis*, Bank of Greece

Inflation Expectations and Economic Preferences

Maximilian Floto*, Leibniz University Hannover

Identifying Macroeconomic Shocks Using Firm-Level Data: Material Shortages in the German Manufacturing Sector

Friederike Fourné* and Lara Zarges, both ifo Institute

The Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Household Spending

• Johannes Fischer, Deutsche Bundesbank
• Christoph Herler*, Bank of England
• Philip Schnattinger, Bank of England

Beyond Groceries: Financial Confidence and the Gender Gap in Inflation Expectations

Lovisa Reiche*, University of Oxford

Spillovers in Macroeconomic Expectations and Labor Supply: Implications for Wage-Price Spirals

Vitaliia Yaremko*, Trinity College Dublin

End of first conference day

Dinner – by invitation only

Registration and coffee

Session 5 – Geopolitical shocks, uncertainty and expectations

Session chair: Oscar Arce, European Central Bank

Do Election Shocks Affect Economic Expectations?

Olivier Armantier, Gizem Kosar, Giorgio Topa* and Wilbert van der Klaauw, all Federal Reserve Bank of New York

The Causal Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Households’ Beliefs and Actions

• Olivier Coibion, University of Texas at Austin
• Dimitris Georgarakos*, European Central Bank
• Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley
• Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank

Households' Subjective Expectations: Disagreement, Common Drivers and Reaction to Monetary Policy

• Stefano Pica, Banca d’Italia
• Clodomiro Ferreira*, Banco de España

Coffee break

Policy panel

Chair: Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB

Panellists:

• Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley
• Kim Huynh, Bank of Canada
• Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Buffet lunch

Session 6 – Trade, firms and expectations measurement

Session chair: Maarten Dossche, European Central Bank

The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations

• Martha Elena Delgado, Inter American Development Bank
• Juan Herreno, University of California, San Diego
• Marc Hofstetter, Universidad de los Andes and CEDE
• Mathieu Pedemonte*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

The Coherence Side of Rationality: Theory and evidence from firm plans

A Choice-Based Approach to the Measurement of Inflation Expectations

• Olga Goldfayn-Frank*, Deutsche Bundesbank
• Pascal Kieren, Heidelberg University
• Stefan Trautmann, Alfred-Weber-Institute

Coffee break

Keynote – Reference Dependence in the Housing Market: Preferences and Beliefs

Tarun Ramadorai, Imperial College London

Keynote chair: Luc Laeven, European Central Bank

End of conference