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Plamen Iossifov

28 January 2014
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1628
Cross-border production chains and business cycle co-movement between Central and Eastern European countries and euro area member states
English
Details
Abstract
In this paper, we highlight the role of global value chains in the synchronization of economic activity between countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the euro area. We start off by demonstrating that the degree of synchronization of the business cycles of CEE countries and their main trade partners from the euro area has increased in recent years. We next show that the cyclical fluctuations of GDP in CEE countries are strongly influenced by pro-cyclical movements of changes in inventories. We then present evidence of the importance of cross border production chains for the economies of CEE countries. We build on these findings to show that the propagation of changes in demand for imports along global supply chains
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe