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2013 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2013 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2013 2014 2015 Dec. 2013 Dec. 2014 2017
Mean point estimate 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.0
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 55 53 48 47 45 47
Probability distributions 2013 2014 2015 Dec. 2013 Dec. 2014 2017
<-1.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.30.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.80.5
0.0 to 0.4% 1.3 2.8 2.2 2.8 3.22.0
0.5 to 0.9% 5.1 7.8 6.6 7.7 8.05.8
1.0 to 1.4% 16.6 17.8 15.6 19.6 17.513.8
1.5 to 1.9% 39.2 34.0 30.1 33.4 29.527.6
2.0 to 2.4% 25.9 22.7 26.1 23.1 23.927.6
2.5 to 2.9% 8.4 10.2 12.9 8.9 12.013.9
3.0 to 3.4% 2.2 3.0 3.9 2.7 3.76.1
3.5 to 3.9% 0.7 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.81.7
>4.0% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.20.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2013 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2013 2014 2015 2013 Q3 2014 Q3 2017
Mean point estimate -0.0 1.1 1.6 0.1 1.1 1.8
Standard deviation 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3
Number of replies 55 53 45 48 43 46
Probability distributions 2013 2014 2015 2013 Q3 2014 Q3 2017
<-1.0% 4.2 1.1 0.4 5.4 1.50.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 14.9 2.2 0.7 13.6 2.60.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 31.1 6.4 2.4 22.7 5.51.7
0.0 to 0.4% 29.7 12.5 6.3 28.7 10.63.7
0.5 to 0.9% 12.6 22.5 13.8 17.7 19.710.2
1.0 to 1.4% 5.2 28.7 26.9 7.5 28.019.5
1.5 to 1.9% 1.8 15.9 26.0 3.0 19.227.9
2.0 to 2.4% 0.4 7.0 12.9 1.1 8.220.1
2.5 to 2.9% 0.1 2.6 5.8 0.2 3.29.4
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 0.8 3.2 0.1 1.04.5
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.0 0.41.6
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.10.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2013 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2013 2014 2015 Nov. 2013 Nov. 2014 2017
Mean point estimate 12.1 11.9 11.2 12.1 11.7 9.5
Standard deviation 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 1.1
Number of replies 53 51 42 44 42 43
Probability distributions 2013 2014 2015 Nov. 2013 Nov. 2014 2017
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.2
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.1
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04.1
7.5 to 7.9% 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.05.1
8.0 to 8.4% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.19.4
8.5 to 8.9% 0.1 0.1 1.3 0.1 0.517.0
9.0 to 9.4% 0.2 0.7 3.0 0.1 1.818.1
9.5 to 9.9% 0.4 2.4 5.3 0.7 3.816.5
10.0 to 10.4% 1.6 5.0 9.7 2.6 6.312.4
10.5 to 10.9% 4.2 6.8 17.0 6.4 9.87.2
11.0 to 11.4% 10.6 15.2 19.3 12.7 16.14.1
11.5 to 11.9% 23.2 23.0 18.5 22.2 22.12.3
12.0 to 12.4% 34.6 22.8 13.8 26.6 20.01.5
12.5 to 12.9% 18.1 14.3 7.0 17.4 11.60.8
13.0 to 13.4% 5.2 7.1 3.0 8.0 5.30.2
13.5 to 13.9% 1.4 2.2 1.0 2.6 2.10.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.40.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.10.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0