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Økonomiske udsigter og udfordringer
Alle aktuelle data peger på, at inflationen i 2025 nærmer sig vores mål på 2 pct., siger medlem af ECB's direktion Piero Cipollone til Reuters. Trods usikre økonomiske udsigter bør vores pengepolitik ikke være for restriktiv, så økonomien kan vokse mest muligt.
Læs Piero Cipollones interview
Databaseret styring af inflationen
Inflationen nærmer sig vores mål på 2 procent, og vi har justeret vores pengepolitik derefter, siger næstformand Luis de Guindos til Hospodárske Noviny. Han fremhæver vores dataafhængige tilgang og tillid til vedvarende dæmpning af inflationen trods økonomisk usikkerhed.
Læs interviewet
Hvad sker der, når Fed og ECB er uenige?
ECB og Fed bevæger sig ikke altid i takt. Men hvordan påvirker Fed's pengepolitik euroområdets økonomi? I denne blog ser vi på, hvordan USA's pengepolitik bevæger sig over Atlanten, og hvad det betyder for ECB.
ECB's blogindlæg- 4 February 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 4 February 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 4 February 2025
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 31 January 2025
- GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 31 January 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 31 January 2025
- PRESS RELEASEEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (17) +Related
- 5 February 2025
- Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- 30 January 2025
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 30 January 2025EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Related
- 30 January 2025
- 30 January 2025
- EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 27 January 2025
- Lamfalussy Lecture by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Lamfalussy Lectures Conference organised by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank, pre-recorded in Frankfurt am Main on 15 January 2025
- 17 January 2025
- Slides by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Crypto Asset Lab conference organised by the University of Milano-Bicocca
- 15 January 2025
- Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 15th edition of Spain Investors Day
- 6 February 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, conducted by Balazs Koranyi and Francesco Canepa
- 5 February 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Mário Blaščák
- 17 January 2025
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Arend Clahsen and Han Dirk Hekking
- 13 January 2025
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by András Szigetvari
- 9 January 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, conducted by Federico Fubini
- 5 February 2025
- The monetary policies of the ECB and the US Federal Reserve are not always in sync. But how does the Fed’s policy affect the euro area economy? This ECB Blog looks at how monetary policy in the United States travels across the Atlantic and what this means for the ECB.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 1 February 2025
- Remaining competitive is fundamental for Europe’s future. We need faster economic growth and higher productivity to protect the quality of life for Europeans – from their jobs and incomes to their security and welfare.
- 20 January 2025
- Stress tests are of crucial importance to assess banks’ resilience under adverse economic conditions. In previous stress tests, however, some banks submitted overly optimistic projections. Despite thorough quality assurance by supervisors, this behaviour makes it more likely that the risks some banks face are underestimated. To address this, we are now taking a closer look at insufficiently prudent projection submissions. In line with our supervisory focus on banks’ risk data aggregation and reporting capabilities, we are also looking more closely at poor data quality issues in stress tests.Details
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
- 15 January 2025
- Central banks project future developments based on past data patterns and a set of assumptions. Crises can change economic structures, complicating this forecasting. The ECB Blog explains how scenario, risk and sensitivity analyses address the new uncertainty.Details
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C15 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- 10 January 2025
- Investments in R&D typically foster productivity growth. But the funding source matters. The ECB Blog shows that publicly funded R&D complements private investments and has greater effects on productivity growth because of its larger spillovers.Details
- JEL Code
- O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
O30 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→General
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
- 6 February 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3019Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the role of banking networks in the transmission of shocks across borders. Combining banking deregulation in the US with state-level idiosyncratic demand shocks, we show that geographically diversified banks reallocate funds from economies experiencing negative shocks to unaffected regions. Our findings indicate that in the presence of idiosyncratic shocks, financial integration reduces business cycle comovement and synchronizes consumption patterns. Our findings contribute to explaining the Great Moderation and provide empirical support for theories that predict that banking integration facilitates the insurance of region-specific risk and the efficient allocation of resources as markets become more complete.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 6 February 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3018Details
- Abstract
- Housing expenditure shares decline with income. A household’s income determines its sensitivity to housing costs and drives its location decision. Has spatial skill sorting increased because low income individuals are avoiding increasingly expensive regions? I augment a standard quantitative spatial model with flexible non-homothetic preferences to estimate the effect of the national increase in the relative supply of high skilled workers that has put upward pressure on housing costs in skill-intensive cities. My model explains 10% of the increase in average house prices in Germany from 2007 to 2017 and 11% of the regional differences in house price increases. One third of the effects is due to an increase in spatial skill sorting driven by differences in housing expenditure shares. The observed degree of skill sorting was not significantly different from the optimal allocation in 2007 while skill sorting was larger than optimal in 2017.
- JEL Code
- H21 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Efficiency, Optimal Taxation
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
R12 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→General Regional Economics→Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
- 5 February 2025
- LEGAL ACT
- 3 February 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3017Details
- Abstract
- We study the implications of deviations from covered interest rate parity for international capital flows using novel data covering euro-area derivatives and securities holdings. Consistent with a dynamic model of currency risk hedging, we document that investors’ holdings of USD bonds decrease following a widening in the USD-EUR cross-currency basis (CCB). This effect is driven by investors with larger FX rollover risk and hedging mandates, and it is robust to instrumenting the CCB. These shifts in bond demand significantly affect bond prices. Our findings shed light on a new determinant of international capital flows with important consequences for financial stability.
- JEL Code
- F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 3 February 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3016Details
- Abstract
- This paper explores the impact of the regulatory leverage ratio (LR) on banks’ demand for reserves and thus the pricing of overnight liquidity in the euro area money markets. We use daily transaction-level money market data during the period between January 2017 - February 2023 and examine the two major overnight money market segments – the unsecured and the secured one, distinguishing between over-the-counter (OTC) and CCP-cleared trades for the latter. We find a significant positive link between a bank’s LR and the spread between its money market borrowing rate and the DFR. Banks with a higher LR offer deposits at higher interest rates, thereby reducing the markdown vis-à-vis the DFR. The impact of the LR dampens during the period in which central bank reserves did not count towards the LR exposure measure (or the denominator of the ratio). It is stronger for G-SIBs, who need to comply with a G-SIB LR add-on on top of the minimum requirement applicable to all euro area banks. Moreover, the impact is weaker for CCP-cleared transactions compared to OTC trades, likely reflecting the possibility to net bilateral exposures if cleared via CCPs, which effectively allows banks to finance the respective gross money market exposures with a smaller share of Tier 1 capital.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 3 February 2025
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 31 January 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 31 January 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 31 January 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3015Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the great supply shock following the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, using a novel suite of supply indices. The suite has indices for the euro area total economy, euro area industries, sectors and countries. The suite also computes the contributions to the indices from supply drivers at origin, in transport, or at destination. The results from the suite show that the supply shock has had wide-spread effects, and that their dynamics have been industry-, sector- and country-specific. Supply conditions have been tighter for longer in the euro area than other areas, in automobile than digital and food industries, in services relative to other sectors, and in some countries than others. The drivers at home appear to account for an increasing share of the specificity at the end of the sample, and a broader data set helps to better capture these drivers. The results also confirm that the supply indices in the suite lag supply shocks and lead variables susceptible to the effects of supply shocks.
- JEL Code
- C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
R32 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis
R41 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Transportation Economics→Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion, Safety and Accidents, Transportation Noise
- 31 January 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3014Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the growth impact of the EU’s Structural, Cohesion and Pre-accession Funds. We look at a large sample of 27 EU countries and the UK, over a period of 1989 and 2020, essentially covering the full history of these funds. We show that the growth effect of the funds is conditional on institutional quality: the funds contribute to economic growth only in countries with strong institutions: low corruption, strong rule of law, effective governments, and strong regulatory quality.Our research have important messages for the expected economic impact of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) and the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). On the one hand, our findings highlight the risk that countries with weaker institutions – that also receive more funds - may use such funds less efficiently or wisely. On the other hand, countries that receive more RRF funds are also expected to introduce more structural reforms, some of which have the potential to improve institutional quality and thereby improve the effectiveness of the RRF and EU funds in general.
- JEL Code
- O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O43 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Institutions and Growth
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
- 31 January 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (17) +EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (17) +Related
- 31 January 2025
- PRESS RELEASEEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (17) +
- 31 January 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1,Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 82 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 6 and 14 January 2025, business momentum remained subdued at the turn of the year as confidence in the manufacturing sector remained low, while services activity was more resilient. Price growth was moderate but had picked up slightly, mainly on account of rising energy and transport prices. Wage growth was expected to slow further both this year and next.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 31 January 2025
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERSAnnexes
- 31 January 2025
- ANNEX
- 28 January 2025
- LEGAL ACT
- 28 January 2025
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEYAnnexes
- 28 January 2025
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY - ANNEX
Related- 28 January 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 27 January 2025
- SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 27 January 2025
- SAFE QUESTIONNAIRE
- 20 January 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATIONAnnexes
- 20 January 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 20 January 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATION
Related- 20 January 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 16 January 2025
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 127Details
- Abstract
- Housing affordability is at the centre of the political debate in many euro area countries. With steadily increasing rents and house prices still high relative to historical standards, many young households, particularly in large cities, are devoting an ever larger share of their income to housing expenses, and are finding it increasingly hard to access their desired size and quality of housing. At the same time, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, many authorities tightened credit conditions by introducing limits to mortgage debt for banks or for borrowers themselves (borrower-based measures). These interventions were successful in improving financial stability, which was their key objective. In this article we point to an overlooked potential downside of these policies and other restrictive shocks to credit: limiting access to mortgage credit and, therefore, to homeownership, can spill over into the rental market, pushing up rents and having a negative welfare impact on some households – particularly the young and those on low incomes.
- JEL Code
- D15 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G51 : Financial Economics
- 15 January 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3013Details
- Abstract
- Flexibility has progressively become a distinctive feature of the implementation of the Eurosystem’s asset purchases. In its many manifestations, flexibility has also been used by asset managers in the daily selection of sovereign bonds to limit the impact of asset purchases on repo market specialness. This study shows that, since the inception of the Public Sector Purchase Programme, flexible purchases of bonds greatly mitigated the Eurosystem’s footprint on the repo market.
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
- 15 January 2025
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - FOCUS - No. 26Details
- Abstract
- This box studies how euro area investment funds use repurchase agreements and margin lending to build up leverage. Hedge funds are more likely to be leveraged in non-euro currencies sourced from foreign banks. On average, financial leverage is relatively low and diversified, though pockets of risk and strong connections with the banking sector warrant continued monitoring.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
Renter
Marginal udlånsfacilitet | 3,15 % |
Primære markedsoperationer (fast rente) | 2,90 % |
Indlånsfacilitet | 2,75 % |
Inflationsrate
Mere om inflationValutakurser
USD | US dollar | 1.0360 | |
JPY | Japanese yen | 157.95 | |
GBP | Pound sterling | 0.83688 | |
CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9385 |