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2019 Q4

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2019 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2019 2020 2021 Sep. 2020 Sep. 2021 2024
Mean point estimate 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 51 50 44 44 37 42
Probability distributions 2019 2020 2021 Sep. 2020 Sep. 2021 2024
<-1.0% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.20.4
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.60.7
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.6 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.91.9
0.0 to 0.4% 2.2 6.6 4.9 6.2 5.54.4
0.5 to 0.9% 13.4 21.8 14.7 20.2 16.210.1
1.0 to 1.4% 67.8 40.5 33.9 37.0 31.622.5
1.5 to 1.9% 12.6 20.0 27.1 24.1 26.531.7
2.0 to 2.4% 2.0 6.5 11.1 7.2 10.816.3
2.5 to 2.9% 0.7 2.3 4.4 2.6 4.67.1
3.0 to 3.4% 0.3 0.5 1.4 0.6 1.53.2
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.41.4
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2019 Q4 core inflation forecasts
  2019 2020 2021 Sep. 2020 Sep. 2021 2024
Mean point estimate 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.6
Standard deviation 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 35 35 31 33 28 28
Probability distributions 2019 2020 2021 Sep. 2020 Sep. 2021 2024
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.10.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.30.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.3 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.10.9
0.0 to 0.4% 1.2 5.8 3.4 5.0 4.23.5
0.5 to 0.9% 27.5 26.0 16.8 24.7 18.411.6
1.0 to 1.4% 64.6 46.0 41.1 43.2 39.429.4
1.5 to 1.9% 5.2 16.6 24.6 19.4 24.332.9
2.0 to 2.4% 0.6 3.6 9.1 4.6 8.513.8
2.5 to 2.9% 0.2 0.8 2.8 1.1 2.54.6
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.71.9
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.30.7
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.10.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2019 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2019 2020 2021 2020 Q2 2021 Q2 2024
Mean point estimate 1.1 1.0 1.3 0.9 1.3 1.4
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 51 50 43 45 37 38
Probability distributions 2019 2020 2021 2020 Q2 2021 Q2 2024
<-1.0% 0.2 0.9 0.6 1.3 0.91.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.5 1.5 1.1 1.7 1.41.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 1.1 4.2 3.1 5.3 3.33.0
0.0 to 0.4% 4.3 10.4 7.8 14.0 8.57.1
0.5 to 0.9% 25.2 28.3 19.2 29.3 18.915.9
1.0 to 1.4% 57.6 34.1 32.0 29.2 32.529.8
1.5 to 1.9% 7.7 13.0 21.3 11.6 19.922.7
2.0 to 2.4% 2.0 4.6 8.4 3.8 7.810.1
2.5 to 2.9% 0.9 2.0 3.9 2.1 3.94.9
3.0 to 3.4% 0.3 0.7 1.6 0.8 1.52.4
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.81.0
>4.0% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.70.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2019 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2019 2020 2021 Aug. 2020 Aug. 2021 2024
Mean point estimate 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5
Number of replies 47 46 41 42 36 36
Probability distributions 2019 2020 2021 Aug. 2020 Aug. 2021 2024
<5.5% 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.4 1.01.7
5.5 to 5.9% 0.5 0.9 2.2 0.8 2.03.4
6.0 to 6.4% 1.3 2.6 5.6 2.9 5.37.6
6.5 to 6.9% 3.2 10.7 13.0 10.8 12.916.2
7.0 to 7.4% 22.5 30.2 28.3 29.4 25.622.7
7.5 to 7.9% 56.7 32.2 25.8 31.6 25.618.6
8.0 to 8.4% 10.6 14.1 12.9 15.1 14.012.6
8.5 to 8.9% 3.2 5.2 6.3 5.2 7.36.9
9.0 to 9.4% 1.1 2.1 2.6 2.2 3.24.1
9.5 to 9.9% 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.8 1.72.5
10.0 to 10.4% 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.81.5
10.5 to 10.9% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.40.9
11.0 to 11.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.20.6
11.5 to 11.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.3
12.0 to 12.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.2
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.2
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0