Digitaalinen euro
Eurojärjestelmä valmistautuu mahdollisuuteen laskea liikkeeseen digitaalinen euro, joka täydentää käteisrahaa.
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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more
KONFERENSSI
18.5.2026
Kansainvälinen rahapolitiikan tutkimusfoorumi
Tänään alkaa 14. kansainvälinen rahapolitiikan tutkimusfoorumi, jossa tutkijat, asiantuntijat ja päättäjät keskustelevat uusimmista tiedoista ja vaihtavat mielipiteitään. Ensimmäinen foorumipäivä alkaa klo 9.00 Keski-Euroopan aikaa.
Katso suora lähetys
TALOUSKATSAUS
15.5.2026
EKP:n tuorein Talouskatsaus
Talouskatsauksessa tarkastellaan EKP:n neuvoston rahapoliittisten päätösten perustana olevaa talouden ja rahatalouden kehitystä. Katsaus ilmestyy kahdeksan kertaa vuodessa – aina kaksi viikkoa rahapolitiikkakokouksen jälkeen.
Lue Talouskatsaus
EKP:N BLOGI
15.5.2026
Muiden rahoituslaitosten kuin pankkien vaikutus euroalueen yrityksiin
Pankkisektorin ulkopuolisten rahoituslaitosten merkitys kasvaa. Blogikirjoituksen mukaan muutokset niiden laina- ja sijoitussalkuissa rajoittavat euroalueen yritysten rahoitusta ja vaikuttavat rahapolitiikan välittymiseen.
Lue blogikirjoitus- 12 May 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 12 May 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 10 May 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 7 May 2026
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 7 May 2026
- FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURE IN THE EURO AREA
- 6 May 2026
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 6 May 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 13 May 2026
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the dinner preceding the Charlemagne Prize ceremony in Aachen, Germany
- 13 May 2026
- Dinner remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Centre for European Reform
- 12 May 2026
- Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the conference “Financing Europe: a new era of strategic investment”
- 8 May 2026
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Banco de España LatAm Economic Forum in Roda de Bará, Spain
- 7 May 2026
- Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Fifth Annual Charles Goodhart Lecture
- 11 May 2026
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Olaf Storbeck on 7 May 2026
- 3 May 2026
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Amanda Mars on 30 April 2026
- 22 April 2026
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Eva Smal on 15 April 2026
- 23 March 2026
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Carlos Segovia on 20 March 2026
- 8 March 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Benedetta Poletti on 12 February 2026
- 15 May 2026
- Non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) are on the rise. This blog shows how shifts in their borrowing and investment portfolios constrain financing for euro area firms and affect the transmission of monetary policy.Details
- JEL Code
- E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 6 May 2026
- Digitalisation is reshaping how banks pass on monetary policy. Compared with their branch‑based peers, digital banks are faster at adjusting deposit pricing for policy changes, but slower at updating their loan pricing.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
- 21 April 2026
- Artificial intelligence (AI) can help track inflation risks in real time. A new ECB model based on machine learning informs experts how likely it is that inflation will be much higher or much lower than they expect.Details
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 13 April 2026
- During the latest tightening episode, interest rate hikes were especially effective. This ECB Blog finds a strong policy transmission to inflation during 2022 and 2023, a forceful response to supply-driven shocks and a low “sacrifice ratio”.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 9 April 2026
- Many Bulgarians feared large price increases when the euro replaced the lev. However, preliminary evidence shows that the changeover in Bulgaria has so far had a limited impact on consumer prices and on perceptions of inflation.Details
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
Related
- 18 May 2026
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 388Details
- Abstract
- The European energy market remains heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels and fragmented across Member States. This leaves the EU exposed to high and volatile energy prices, posing risks to its growth outlook and its international competitiveness. As the EU advances its energy security and climate neutrality objectives, the role of electricity and renewable energy is set to increase at the expense of fossil fuels. This paper argues that achieving a genuine European Energy Union would help to reach these goals and identifies five key policy priorities to support this process: strengthening cross-border infrastructure; mobilising innovative green finance; investing in tools to support flexibility and matching of supply and demand; improving the efficiency and harmonisation of energy taxation; and establishing a coherent industrial policy for clean tech.
- JEL Code
- Q40 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→General
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
Q48 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Government Policy
O25 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Development Planning and Policy→Industrial Policy
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
- 15 May 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN
- 15 May 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Tariffs have re-emerged as a key policy tool amid rising protectionism, renewed industrial policy activism and growing geopolitical fragmentation. This article analyses the conditions under which tariffs can encourage new greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) projects, with a focus on the manufacturing sector. The results indicate that tariffs can encourage “tariff-jumping” greenfield FDI projects aimed at serving local markets. However, high-intensity tariff increases tend to deter new greenfield manufacturing FDI in sectors that are deeply integrated into global value chains and that rely heavily on imported intermediate inputs, such as manufacturing. A case study of US inward greenfield FDI following the 2025 US tariff announcements finds little evidence of a tariff-driven surge in US inward investment or of a decline in US outward investment. From a euro area perspective, the risk that increased outward FDI could have a dampening effect on domestic investment in the euro area is therefore limited. However, increased outward FDI may further weaken exports to the United States in addition to the negative impact of the US tariffs.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
F68 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Policy
- 15 May 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2026Details
- Abstract
- The European Central Bank (ECB) defines its price stability target in terms of the HICP, the official measure of consumer price inflation in the euro area. Several changes have been implemented in the compilation of the HICP as of the January 2026 data release. Most importantly, the European Classification of Individual Consumption according to Purpose (ECOICOP) version 2 has been introduced for consumer goods and services. This box describes the main features of the new classification and outlines its impact on the HICP. While the overall HICP inflation rate is not affected by the changes, the reclassification of products becomes visible at a more disaggregate level when historical data are recompiled using ECOICOP version 2. The update also has implications for the compilation of commonly used measures of underlying inflation. In addition to the reclassification, the HICP has been expanded to cover services related to games of chance, and the euro area HICP aggregate now includes Bulgaria following its entry into the euro area on 1 January 2026.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 15 May 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box examines developments and drivers of dispersion in real GDP growth across euro area countries, it documents cross-country patterns and explores the role of sectoral, demographic and labour market trends. Dispersion in euro area real GDP growth has declined recently and is relatively low by historical standards. This has coincided with convergence in real GDP per capita. Cross-country growth dispersion has previously spiked in times of crisis, typically emerging in specific sectors. However, recent cross-country growth dispersion has been less concentrated in specific sectors and is more closely related to demographic and labour market trends than to differences in productivity growth.
- JEL Code
- E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 15 May 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXAssessing cross-border integration of equity markets in the euro area: evidence from a gravity modelEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Euro area financial markets hold significant untapped potential: deeper cross-border integration would improve the allocation of savings, lower the cost of capital and strengthen capacity to finance investment and innovation. To assess how the integration of euro area equity markets has evolved over time, this box applies a structural gravity model, the workhorse of international trade analysis, to bilateral euro area equity holdings. The results show that intra-euro area frictions have declined only marginally since 2014, while barriers vis-à-vis the United States have fallen more than twice as fast – a gap that defines the gains that targeted reforms under the savings and investments union could help unlock.
- JEL Code
- C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
O16 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Financial Markets, Saving and Capital Investment, Corporate Finance and Governance
- 13 May 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This article examines the drivers and macroeconomic implications of the recent significant expansion of the euro area labour force, which reached a record high of 173 million people in 2025. The increase reflects rising labour force participation across demographic groups and sustained net migration, with older, more educated and foreign workers accounting for much of the growth. These compositional shifts, particularly the larger share of older workers, have exerted downward pressure on the aggregate unemployment rate, while reducing labour market dynamism and contributing to a declining trend in average hours worked. Labour market policies aimed at mitigating the longer-term drag on potential output and productivity from population ageing are essential.
- JEL Code
- J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J61 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Geographic Labor Mobility, Immigrant Workers
- 13 May 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box shows that older workers have contributed significantly to euro area employment growth in recent years, largely because they are retiring later. The share of retired individuals in the total population shows little sensitivity to the economic cycle, but has decreased steadily over the past two decades, with this decline having shifted more towards older age groups. The share of retirees is still falling among individuals in their early to mid-60s and appears likely to also do so among older age groups. At the same time, statutory retirement ages do not seem to have been the main contributing factor to the observed increases in average retirement ages. Looking ahead, the evidence suggests that overall retirement ages will continue to increase, in line with the projections presented in the European Commission’s 2024 Ageing Report.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J26 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Retirement, Retirement Policies
- 13 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3233Details
- Abstract
- We empirically analyse the role of judgement in assigning overall scores by the euro area supervisors as part of the yearly Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP), which evaluates banks’ risks and sets supervisory actions. We also analyse its role in shaping the drivers of the Pillar 2 capital requirement (P2R) that banks must fulfil. We find that supervisors actively adjust the weight of the components of the overall score to reflect qualitative information, thereby smoothing fluctuations in the final assessment. The analysis reveals a common supervisory judgement channel, which could reflect shared priorities and concerns, such as systemic vulnerabilities or macroeconomic conditions. We also show that certain risks, such as credit risk, can play a decisive role in the overall assessment of a bank’s viability. These findings underpin the critical role of judgement in adapting supervisory frameworks to evolving risks and systemic conditions, providing flexibility at both the individual and system-wide levels.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 13 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3232Details
- Abstract
- We examine whether banks incorporate firm-level biodiversity risk into their lending decisions. Using a large sample of syndicated loans matched to firm-level biodiversity risk measures, we document that borrowers with higher biodiversity risk face significantly higher loan spreads. Evidence on loan volumes is weaker, suggesting that banks primarily adjust along the pricing margin rather than restricting credit supply. To capture biodiversity risk exposure, we develop a novel text-based indicator derived from corporate disclosures that incorporates the contextual content of environmental risk. To strengthen identification, we exploit firm-level environmental violations as shocks to environmental credibility. In a stacked difference-in-differences framework, we show that such violations increase the sensitivity of loan pricing to biodiversity risk. Overall, our findings provide evidence that biodiversity risk is a financially material dimension of environmental risk in credit markets.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Q51 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Valuation of Environmental Effects
Q57 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity Conservation, Bioeconomics, Industrial Ecology - Network
- ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
- 12 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3231Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the impact on cashflows and financial decisions of firms affected by wildfires, focusing on the wildfires that occurred in Portugal in 2017. Using establishment-level data from the hotel industry combined with geospatial information on wildfire proximity and land use, we employ a difference-in-differences approach to study both directly and indirectly affected firms. Our findings reveal that firms with direct damages from the wildfires recorded, on average, a 43% drop in revenues in 2018, while indirectly affected firms with a high share of burned area within a 1 km radius suffered a 24% drop. These cashflow shocks triggered distinct financial responses: directly affected hotels increased their reliance on long-term debt and coupled tangible asset investments with additional cash reserves, whereas indirectly affected firms reduced tangible investments and cash holdings. This divergence aligns with both real-options and reference-dependent risk preferences theories, reflecting the option to wait before investing and the shift in business fundamentals relative to the pre-disaster reference points.
- JEL Code
- G30 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→General
G31 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Capital Budgeting, Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies, Capacity
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
- 12 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3230Details
- Abstract
- Using U.S. and Euro area data, we document that (i) the pass-through of energy prices to inflation is state-dependent - stronger when supply chain uncertainty is elevated – and (ii) in such states, energy prices become more informative about logistical conditions. We develop a model in which firms combine energy and a specialized input transported through a capacity-constrained transportation network. When congestion binds, energy remains available in local markets at a premium, whereas the specialized input is subject to delivery delays. Because energy prices reflect both raw energy shocks and transportation conditions, firms treat them as noisy signals of supply disruptions and update beliefs through Bayesian learning. This signal-extraction channel increases perceived marginal costs, generating an uncertainty wedge that amplifies and propagates energy shocks. Within a general-equilibrium New Keynesian model, the mechanism raises the impact elasticity and the persistence of inflation in response to transitory energy shocks. This challenges the conventional monetary policy prescription to “look through” supply disturbances.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
- 12 May 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2026Details
- Abstract
- China’s industrial rise is a key external force influencing euro area trade, production and prices by reducing costs for euro area companies, via intermediate inputs, and increasing competitive pressures in European and global markets. Econometric analysis shows that the increase in the exposure of the euro area to intermediate goods imports from China has been positively associated with industrial production growth, whereas the increase in imports of final goods from China has tended to weigh on production. Model-based simulations can capture the increase in competitive pressures from China via sector-specific productivity shocks. The simulations suggest that, at the aggregate level, EU GDP increases in the short term, driven by positive income effects owing to cheaper imported goods and by reduced production costs resulting from cheaper imported inputs, while inflation declines.
- JEL Code
- D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F12 : International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
L25 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope
L60 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Manufacturing→General
- 11 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3229Details
- Abstract
- We revisit the debate on the effectiveness of central bank communication on exchange rates, contrasting a skeptical view, which holds that communication neither moves exchange rates nor influences them in the desired direction, with an optimistic view that it does. Using nearly 100 official ECB statements on exchange rates made during its monetary policy press conferences since 2002, we show that the ECB tends to mention the exchange rate when the real effective exchange rate deviates from its equilibrium value, whereas journalists’ questions are mainly responsive to the nominal exchange rate. Studying the effects of these mentions, our findings by and large support the skeptical view: after controlling for monetary policy shocks, exchange rate communication has limited immediate effects on the euro exchange rate, which fade quickly. Effectiveness is particularly limited when interest rates are at their effective lower bound.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
O24 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Development Planning and Policy→Trade Policy, Factor Movement Policy, Foreign Exchange Policy
- 11 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3228Details
- Abstract
- Transitioning to a sustainable economy and reducing air pollution hinge on appropriate economic incentives and financing conditions. The auto loan market offers a prime setting, as lenders’ credit terms can either discourage or incentivize the purchase of high-pollution vehicles. Using loan-level data, we examine how captive and independent banks adjust lending conditions in response to information and regulatory shocks affecting diesel vehicles. Exploiting the 2015 diesel emissions scandal and the introduction of local circulation restrictions, we show that lending responses differ systematically across lender types, with captive banks tending to weaken, rather than reinforce, the effectiveness of environmental regulation for air pollution.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G51 : Financial Economics
Q53 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Air Pollution, Water Pollution, Noise, Hazardous Waste, Solid Waste, Recycling
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
- 11 May 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box analyses how households adjust their saving behaviour in an environment of heightened geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices. Using an empirical model together with two general equilibrium frameworks, it evaluates how adverse shocks to energy prices and consumer uncertainty could affect the saving rate, and it examines the implications for GDP growth, inflation and the distribution of consumption across households.
- JEL Code
- E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 8 May 2026
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 8 May 2026
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 8 May 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 7 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3227Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the impact of natural gas market shocks on gas market dynamics, inflation expectations and realized inflation in the Euro Area using a BVAR model. Our contribution lies in a novel identification strategy that distinguishes between various types of shocks of unprecedented detail, leverages weekly rather than monthly data, and extends the analysis to both market-based headline and core inflation expectations. We find that, although conceptually distinct, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply shocks have comparable effects on realized variables such as gas prices and actual inflation. By contrast, LNG supply shocks play a more limited role in shaping inflation expectations. Precautionary demand and industrial demand shocks also emerge as important drivers of inflation dynamics. This reflects both the forward-looking nature of precautionary shocks, which capture changes in investor sentiment, and the broader macroeconomic relevance of industrial demand shocks, whose effects extend beyond the gas market.
- JEL Code
- C50 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→General
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
Korot
| Talletuskorko | 2,00 % |
| Perusrahoitusoperaatioiden korko (kiinteä) | 2,15 % |
| Maksuvalmiusluoton korko | 2,40 % |
Inflaatiovauhti
Lisätietoa inflaatiostaValuuttakurssit
| USD | US dollar | 1.1628 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 184.36 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.87050 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9144 |
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