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2020 Q2

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2020 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2020 2021 2022 Mar. 2021 Mar. 2022 2024
Mean point estimate 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.7
Standard deviation 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 54 53 38 43 33 38
Probability distributions 2020 2021 2022 Mar. 2021 Mar. 2022 2024
<-4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-4.0 to -3.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-3.5 to -3.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-3.0 to -2.6% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-2.5 to -2.1% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.00.0
-2.0 to -1.6% 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.10.1
-1.5 to -1.1% 1.7 0.6 0.6 1.6 0.70.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 6.5 1.8 1.0 3.2 1.00.7
-0.5 to -0.1% 14.8 4.2 3.2 5.8 3.21.6
0.0 to 0.4% 25.4 10.6 7.2 12.7 8.45.4
0.5 to 0.9% 29.5 20.7 16.5 20.9 17.111.9
1.0 to 1.4% 14.3 28.5 26.7 26.6 30.321.3
1.5 to 1.9% 5.2 18.4 27.8 16.0 23.130.8
2.0 to 2.4% 1.2 9.4 11.0 7.5 10.416.7
2.5 to 2.9% 0.3 3.9 3.6 3.2 3.46.3
3.0 to 3.4% 0.1 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.52.8
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.71.3
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.30.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2020 Q2 core inflation forecasts
  2020 2021 2022 Mar. 2021 Mar. 2022 2024
Mean point estimate 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.6
Standard deviation 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 37 37 29 33 25 27
Probability distributions 2020 2021 2022 Mar. 2021 Mar. 2022 2024
<-4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-4.0 to -3.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-3.5 to -3.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-3.0 to -2.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-2.5 to -2.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.00.1
-2.0 to -1.6% 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.00.2
-1.5 to -1.1% 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.50.4
-1.0 to -0.6% 2.2 1.4 0.9 1.6 0.80.9
-0.5 to -0.1% 5.3 3.6 2.2 5.4 2.41.7
0.0 to 0.4% 17.0 12.4 10.0 12.9 8.86.6
0.5 to 0.9% 37.1 24.8 20.1 26.7 23.516.5
1.0 to 1.4% 26.3 33.4 32.8 30.7 30.323.2
1.5 to 1.9% 8.0 15.8 21.3 13.4 20.626.6
2.0 to 2.4% 2.3 5.8 7.7 5.0 7.613.9
2.5 to 2.9% 0.4 1.4 2.9 1.9 3.45.7
3.0 to 3.4% 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 1.32.6
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.51.0
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.30.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2020 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2020 2021 2022 2020 Q4 2021 Q4 2024
Mean point estimate -5.5 4.3 1.7 -2.8 2.8 1.4
Standard deviation 2.1 2.4 0.4 3.0 1.3 0.3
Number of replies 53 52 37 42 40 34
Probability distributions 2020 2021 2022 2020 Q4 2021 Q4 2024
<-15.0% 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.00.0
-15.0 to -13.1% 1.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.10.0
-13.0 to -11.1% 3.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 0.10.0
-11.0 to -9.1% 7.3 0.1 0.0 2.7 0.10.0
-9.0 to -7.1% 15.8 0.1 0.0 8.1 0.10.0
-7.0 to -5.1% 25.6 0.1 0.0 13.0 0.10.1
-5.0 to -3.1% 28.0 0.2 0.3 21.6 0.10.4
-3.0 to -1.1% 11.0 1.0 0.5 15.6 0.30.9
-1.0 to -0.6% 3.7 1.4 0.8 7.8 0.61.2
-0.5 to -0.1% 2.2 2.2 1.6 5.3 1.02.5
0.0 to 0.4% 0.5 3.2 5.4 5.1 2.66.4
0.5 to 0.9% 0.1 4.3 11.8 5.8 5.415.4
1.0 to 1.4% 0.1 7.4 21.8 3.4 9.926.2
1.5 to 1.9% 0.0 9.5 23.3 3.0 14.323.7
2.0 to 2.4% 0.0 8.8 19.3 2.2 15.313.0
2.5 to 2.9% 0.0 6.4 8.0 1.7 16.65.4
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 10.2 3.7 1.3 11.72.3
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 12.7 1.6 0.1 8.51.1
4.0 to 5.9% 0.0 16.4 1.1 0.0 7.40.8
6.0 to 7.9% 0.0 9.4 0.4 0.0 3.20.3
8.0 to 9.9% 0.0 3.9 0.2 0.0 1.60.1
>10.0% 0.0 2.6 0.1 0.0 0.90.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2020 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2020 2021 2022 Feb. 2021 Feb. 2022 2024
Mean point estimate 9.4 8.9 8.4 9.6 8.7 7.7
Standard deviation 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.7
Number of replies 49 48 37 38 31 32
Probability distributions 2020 2021 2022 Feb. 2021 Feb. 2022 2024
<5.5% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.10.9
5.5 to 5.9% 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.41.9
6.0 to 6.4% 0.4 0.5 1.4 0.7 1.95.6
6.5 to 6.9% 0.6 1.4 3.3 1.2 3.213.5
7.0 to 7.4% 2.8 5.0 10.0 3.3 9.019.2
7.5 to 7.9% 8.8 13.0 18.2 6.1 13.719.1
8.0 to 8.4% 10.9 15.1 17.2 9.8 15.514.0
8.5 to 8.9% 13.7 16.2 17.3 12.0 17.89.4
9.0 to 9.4% 17.0 17.6 10.7 15.7 10.17.8
9.5 to 9.9% 13.5 11.0 6.7 12.5 10.14.2
10.0 to 10.4% 9.5 7.2 5.0 10.0 4.12.3
10.5 to 10.9% 6.5 4.6 4.5 10.8 4.11.2
11.0 to 11.4% 6.6 4.0 2.4 5.2 3.20.3
11.5 to 11.9% 3.2 1.7 1.3 3.7 4.90.2
12.0 to 12.4% 2.0 1.1 0.6 2.4 1.20.1
12.5 to 12.9% 1.3 0.8 0.2 4.1 0.50.0
13.0 to 13.4% 2.0 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.20.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.10.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.00.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0