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2023 Q4
Inflation forecasts
Core inflation forecasts
Real GDP growth forecasts
Unemployment rate forecasts
HICP Inflation forecasts
Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat
2023 Q4 inflation forecasts
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Sep. 2024 | Sep. 2025 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean point estimate | 5.6 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Standard deviation | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Number of replies | 61 | 62 | 56 | 50 | 43 | 51 |
| Probability distributions | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Sep. 2024 | Sep. 2025 | 2028 |
| <-1.0% | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| -1.0 to -0.6% | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| -0.5 to -0.1% | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 0.0 to 0.4% | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| 0.5 to 0.9% | 0.0 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 4.9 |
| 1.0 to 1.4% | 0.0 | 4.3 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 11.6 | 10.7 |
| 1.5 to 1.9% | 0.0 | 8.3 | 18.8 | 11.5 | 18.8 | 21.3 |
| 2.0 to 2.4% | 0.0 | 16.9 | 26.9 | 20.5 | 24.3 | 27.7 |
| 2.5 to 2.9% | 0.2 | 25.6 | 18.2 | 22.4 | 15.4 | 15.9 |
| 3.0 to 3.4% | 0.8 | 21.5 | 9.0 | 16.5 | 8.5 | 7.7 |
| 3.5 to 3.9% | 2.2 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 3.8 |
| 4.0 to 4.4% | 2.2 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| 4.5 to 4.9% | 9.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| >5.0% | 85.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Core HICP inflation forecasts
Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.
2023 Q4 core inflation forecasts
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Sep. 2024 | Sep. 2025 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean point estimate | 5.1 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Standard deviation | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Number of replies | 44 | 45 | 41 | 39 | 35 | 37 |
| Probability distributions | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Sep. 2024 | Sep. 2025 | 2028 |
| <-1.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| -1.0 to -0.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| -0.5 to -0.1% | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 0.0 to 0.4% | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 0.5 to 0.9% | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 5.4 |
| 1.0 to 1.4% | 0.0 | 2.1 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 9.3 | 12.1 |
| 1.5 to 1.9% | 0.0 | 6.5 | 21.5 | 12.2 | 23.5 | 24.9 |
| 2.0 to 2.4% | 0.0 | 15.0 | 31.7 | 21.8 | 29.6 | 29.0 |
| 2.5 to 2.9% | 0.2 | 27.5 | 17.1 | 22.6 | 15.1 | 13.4 |
| 3.0 to 3.4% | 0.4 | 27.2 | 8.6 | 17.8 | 8.1 | 6.0 |
| 3.5 to 3.9% | 2.2 | 12.0 | 4.4 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 |
| 4.0 to 4.4% | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| 4.5 to 4.9% | 25.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| >5.0% | 64.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Real GDP growth forecasts
Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.
2023 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2024 Q2 | 2025 Q2 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean point estimate | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Standard deviation | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Number of replies | 63 | 63 | 57 | 53 | 46 | 47 |
| Probability distributions | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2024 Q2 | 2025 Q2 | 2028 |
| <-1.0% | 0.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 |
| -1.0 to -0.6% | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| -0.5 to -0.1% | 6.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 11.3 | 4.0 | 2.6 |
| 0.0 to 0.4% | 28.5 | 14.5 | 6.1 | 21.7 | 8.6 | 6.6 |
| 0.5 to 0.9% | 47.1 | 26.4 | 12.6 | 25.8 | 14.3 | 15.7 |
| 1.0 to 1.4% | 11.3 | 26.6 | 24.3 | 16.0 | 22.8 | 27.0 |
| 1.5 to 1.9% | 2.7 | 12.8 | 28.1 | 6.2 | 21.6 | 24.5 |
| 2.0 to 2.4% | 1.0 | 4.7 | 13.5 | 2.8 | 11.8 | 11.5 |
| 2.5 to 2.9% | 0.4 | 2.4 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 5.3 |
| 3.0 to 3.4% | 0.2 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| 3.5 to 3.9% | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| >4.0% | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Unemployment rate forecasts
The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.
2023 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Aug. 2024 | Aug. 2025 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean point estimate | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.5 |
| Standard deviation | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Number of replies | 56 | 57 | 50 | 38 | 34 | 40 |
| Probability distributions | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Aug. 2024 | Aug. 2025 | 2028 |
| <4.0% | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 4.0 to 4.4% | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 4.5 to 4.9% | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 5.0 to 5.4% | 0.9 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 5.8 |
| 5.5 to 5.9% | 2.7 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 13.2 |
| 6.0 to 6.4% | 29.2 | 23.2 | 24.9 | 22.7 | 22.9 | 24.2 |
| 6.5 to 6.9% | 53.4 | 35.1 | 28.3 | 30.6 | 25.0 | 22.3 |
| 7.0 to 7.4% | 9.4 | 21.2 | 17.0 | 19.3 | 16.4 | 14.3 |
| 7.5 to 7.9% | 2.2 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 7.9 |
| 8.0 to 8.4% | 0.7 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.9 |
| 8.5 to 8.9% | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| 9.0 to 9.4% | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| 9.5 to 9.9% | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 10.0 to 10.4% | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| 10.5 to 10.9% | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| >11.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |