Anna Rogantini Picco
Research
- Division
Monetary Policy Research
- Current Position
-
Senior Economist
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,International Economics
- Other current responsibilities
- 2024-
Research Affiliate, CEPR (International Macroeconomics and Finance, and Monetary Economics and Fluctuations)
- 2024-
Associate Editor, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics
- Education
- 2020
PhD in Economics, European University Institute
- 2017
European Doctoral Programme, London School of Economics
- 2015
MRes in Economics, European University Institute
- 2013
MPhil in Economic Research, University of Cambridge, Corpus Christi College
- 2012
MSc in Economics, cum laude, Università degli Studi di Firenze
- Professional experience
- 2023-
Senior Economist, Research Department, European Central Bank
- 2020-2023
Economist, Research Division, Sveriges Riksbank
- Awards
- 2019
Young Economist Best Paper Award, Unicredit Foundation
- 2013
Banca d'Italia Research Grant (Meritevole per Borsa di Studio Mortara)
- 2012
Prize Research Grant, University of Cambridge, Centre for History & Economics
- 2012
Best MSc Dissertation Prize, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze
- 15 September 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3110Details
- Abstract
- Announcing a large fiscal stimulus may signal the government’s pessimism about the severity of a recession to the private sector, impairing the stabilizing effects of the policy. Using a theoretical model, we show that these signaling effects occur when the stimulus exceeds expectations and are more noticeable during periods of high economic uncertainty. Analysis of a new dataset of daily stock prices and fiscal news in Japan supports these predictions. We introduce a method to identify fiscal news with different degrees of signaling effects and find that such effects weaken or, in extreme cases, even completely undermine the stabilizing impact of the announcements.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
- 17 March 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3038Details
- Abstract
- Are restrictions on fiscal policy necessary for monetary policy to be able to deliver price stability? When households are Ricardian, the net present value of future fiscal surpluses needs to equate the real value of government debt absent inflation. We show that when households are not Ricardian, fiscal requirements still exist but take the very different form of a limit on the debt-to-GDP ratio. The debt-to-GDP limit captures the idea that public debt cannot be so large that the wealth effect of public debt on aggregate spending can no longer be counter-balanced by interest rate hikes, however large. To implement price stability when the debt-to-GDP requirement is satisfied, monetary policy must respond to the level of public debt, not just to the inflation it creates.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 8 October 2024
- DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 26Details
- Abstract
- The change in macroeconomic conditions since the ECB’s strategy review in 2021 towards an environment characterised by above-target inflation, high interest rates, and renewed concerns about elevated government debt has been a vocal reminder of the intricate interdependencies between monetary and fiscal policies. Against this background, our paper reviews the literature on how central banks’ ability to maintain price stability is shaped by their interactions with fiscal policy and the state of the economy. According to standard models, a policy framework aimed at price stability requires suitable commitments from both monetary and fiscal authorities. When public debt burdens become too high, price stability may be at risk. The paper also draws lessons on how to mitigate such risks.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- 7 August 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2971Details
- Abstract
- Households' income heterogeneity is important to explain consumption dynamics in response to aggregate macro uncertainty: an increase in uncertainty generates a consumption drop that is stronger for income poorer households. At the same time, labor markets are strongly responsive to macro uncertainty as the unemployment rate and the job separation rate rise, while the job finding rate falls. A heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions in the labor market can account for these empirical findings. The mechanism at play is a feedback loop between income poorer households who, being subject to higher unemployment risk, contract consumption more in response to heightened uncertainty, and firms that post fewer vacancies following a drop in demand.
- JEL Code
- E12 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Keynes, Keynesian, Post-Keynesian
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
J64 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
- 2025
- International Economic ReviewMacro Uncertainty and Unemployment Risk
- 2025
- Research Handbook on InflationMonetary/fiscal Policy Mix and Inflation Dynamics
- 2023
- Journal of International EconomicsRisk Sharing and the Adoption of the Euro
- 2022
- American Economic Review: InsightsFive Facts about the Distributional Income Effects of Monetary Policy
- 2021
- Journal of MacroeconomicsUncertainty Shocks, Precautionary Pricing, and Optimal Monetary Policy