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The ECB Blog

A European view on central banking and the economy

The ECB Blog offers new insights on the economy and central bank policies based on our data, analysis and research - for the euro area and beyond. Posts are authored by ECB staff and Executive Board members.

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15 January 2025

Exploring an uncertain future with the help of scenarios

Central banks project future developments based on past data patterns and a set of assumptions. Crises can change economic structures, complicating this forecasting. The ECB Blog explains how scenario, risk and sensitivity analyses address the new uncertainty.

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