Christoph Kaufmann
Macro Prud Policy&Financial Stability
- Division
Market-Based Finance
- Current Position
-
Senior Financial Stability Expert
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Financial Economics,International Economics
- Education
- 2012-2017
PhD in Economics, University of Cologne, Germany
- 2006-2012
MSc in Economics (Diplom-Volkswirt), University of Cologne, Germany
- Professional experience
- 2018-
Market-Based Finance Division, Directorate General Macroprudential Policy & Financial Stability, European Central Bank
- 2017-2018
Secretariat to the European Systemic Risk Board, European Central Bank
- 2017-2017
Fiscal Policies Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank
- 20 November 2024
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Recent episodes of widening sovereign bond spreads have led to renewed concerns about financial stability related to sovereign risk in the euro area. Against this backdrop, this box presents an empirical analysis of the shifts in financing conditions for both sovereigns and non-financial corporations, as well as changes in the sovereign bond holdings of domestic and foreign investors following a sovereign stress shock. The analysis finds that financing conditions for sovereigns and firms deteriorate after sovereign stress events, while financial and political uncertainty increase. When sovereign stress events occur, investment funds and global investors withdraw from euro sovereign debt markets, while domestic investors step in.
- JEL Code
- F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 16 May 2024
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Around 20% of euro area bank funding is provided by the non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector, mainly via market-based instruments such as bonds and repurchase agreements. The reliance on NBFI funding varies in line with banks’ business models, with some banks obtaining about a third of their funds from the NBFI sector. NBFI entities also display a strong preference for some types of funding instruments, suggesting limited substitutability across sectors and financing sources. Focusing on the repo market, we test funding substitution by euro area banks across sectors when facing a reduction in repo funds. Banks can only replace about 25% of the outflows after repo funding falls. When the outflow comes from an investment fund, banks face an even larger reduction in repo funds. These results and some recent episodes of liquidity turmoil in the NBFI sector suggest that more widespread shocks could affect the ability of banks to secure funding.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 14 May 2024
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Geopolitical risk can be a threat to financial stability and the global economy. It can adversely affect the economy and financial markets and consequently have a negative impact on the funding, lending, solvency, asset quality and profitability of banks and non-banks alike. Recent history suggests that adverse geopolitical events alone are unlikely to cause a systemic crisis, although they may act as a trigger for systemic distress if they interact with pre-existing vulnerabilities. Looking ahead, policy authorities need to monitor geopolitical risk and assess its possible consequences for financial stability. Financial institutions should apply a combination of sound risk management and business diversification to address geopolitical risk.
- JEL Code
- G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 17 January 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2892Details
- Abstract
- The euro area insurance sector and its relevance for real economy financing have grown significantly over the last two decades. This paper analyses the effects of monetary policy on the size and composition of insurers’ balance sheets, as well as the implications of these effects for financial stability. We find that changes in monetary policy have a significant impact on both sector size and risk-taking. Insurers’ balance sheets grow materially after a monetary loosening, implying an increase of the sector’s financial intermediation capacity and an active transmission of monetary policy through the insurance sector. We also find evidence of portfolio re-balancing consistent with the risk-taking channel of monetary policy. After a monetary loosening, insurers increase credit, liquidity and duration risk-taking in their asset portfolios. Our results suggest that extended periods of low interest rates lead to rising financial stability risks among non-bank financial intermediaries.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 22 November 2023
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- The smooth absorption of sovereign debt issuance by the financial sector is essential for financial stability. Newly issued government debt has been absorbed smoothly so far in 2023, despite the absence of net central bank purchases. Sovereign debt absorption patterns have been in line with empirical evidence, which suggests that investors tend to increase their bond purchases when yields rise. Non-bank investors tend to absorb less issuance in times of elevated financial market uncertainty, while accounting and leverage requirements influence the absorption capacity of banks. Higher government funding needs, especially in an environment of high market volatility, can imply rising yield levels and spreads.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
- 31 May 2023
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2023Details
- Abstract
- Foreign investors have a significant footprint in euro area government bond markets, but this has fallen since the Eurosystem launched its asset purchase programmes. Against this background, this box analyses the role and behaviour of global and domestic investment funds in euro area government bond markets. The results indicate that after global risk shocks, domestic investment funds tend to turn to euro area government bonds, while global funds cut back their exposures. Moreover, after events that lead to spreads widening among euro area government bond markets, global investment funds tend to play a stabilising role in euro area government bond markets since they typically increase their exposure to medium or lower-rated euro area government bonds.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 30 May 2023
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2023Details
- Abstract
- Banks are connected to non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector entities via loans, securities and derivatives exposures, as well as funding dependencies. Linkages with the NBFI sector expose banks to liquidity, market and credit risks. Funding from NBFI entities would appear to be the most likely and strongest spillover channel, considering that NBFI entities maintain their liquidity buffers primarily as deposits and very short-term repo transactions with banks. At the same time, direct credit exposures are smaller and are often related to NBFI entities associated with banking groups. Links with NBFI entities are highly concentrated in a small group of systemically important banks, whose sizeable capital and liquidity buffers are essential to mitigate spillover risks.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 16 November 2022
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2022Details
- Abstract
- The euro area insurance sector and its relevance for real economy financing have grown significantly over the last two decades. This box examines the effects of higher interest rates on the size and composition of euro area insurers’ balance sheets, as well as the implications of these effects for financial stability. The results suggest that the size of insurers’ balance sheets decreases materially after a monetary tightening. Such tightening also induces shifts in asset holdings, which lead to a reduction in credit, liquidity and duration risk-taking. Medium-term financial stability risks in the insurance sector could therefore decline amid rising interest rates.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 2 August 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2695Details
- Abstract
- The investment fund sector, the largest component of the non-bank financial system, is growing rapidly and the economy is becoming more reliant on investment fund financial intermediation. This paper builds a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with banks and investment funds. Without regulation, investment funds hold insuÿcient amounts of liquid bank deposits and must sell bonds when hit by large redemptions. Even when accounting for side effects related to a reduction of deposits held by households, a macroprudential liquidity requirement improves welfare by reducing bond liquidation and by increasing macroeconomic resilience to financial shocks as in March 2020.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 12 October 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2605Details
- Abstract
- We examine the transmission of monetary policy via the euro area investment fund sector using a Bayesian vector autoregressions framework. We find that expansionary shocks are associated with net inflows and that these are strongest for riskier fund types, reflecting search for yield among euro area investors. Search for yield behaviour by fund managers is also evident, as they shift away from low yielding cash assets following an expansionary shock. While higher risk-taking is an intended consequence of expansionary monetary policy, this dynamic may give rise to a build-up in liquidity risk over time, leaving the fund sector less resilient to large outflows in the face of a crisis.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 21 September 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 270Details
- Abstract
- The financing structure of the euro area economy has evolved since the global financial crisis with non-bank financial intermediation taking a more prominent role. This shift affects the transmission of monetary policy. Compared with banks, non-bank financial intermediaries are more responsive to monetary policy measures that influence longer-term interest rates, such as asset purchases. The increasing role of debt securities in the financing structure of firms also leads to a stronger transmission of long-rate shocks. At the same time, short-term policy rates remain an effective tool to steer economic outcomes in the euro area, which is still highly reliant on bank loans. Amid a low interest rate environment, the growth of market-based finance has been accompanied by increased credit, liquidity and duration risk in the non-bank sector. Interconnections in the financial system can amplify contagion and impair the smooth transmission of monetary policy in periods of market distress. The growing importance of non-bank financial intermediaries has implications for the functioning of financial market segments relevant for monetary policy transmission, in particular the money markets and the bond markets.
- JEL Code
- E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
- 19 May 2021
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2021Details
- Abstract
- During the March 2020 market turmoil, investment funds shed assets on a large scale. But was this selling commensurate with the outflows they faced or was it much larger? This box finds evidence for the latter, highlighting that the less regulated non-UCITS funds tended to engage in more procyclical selling and cash hording than UCITS funds. While it can be rational for fund managers individually to sell assets in excess of current outflows when uncertainty about future redemptions is high, such cash hoarding can be detrimental to the stability of financial markets from a macroprudential perspective. The findings discussed in this box suggest that macroprudential regulation of the fund sector could help to mitigate procyclical behaviour.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 19 May 2021
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the response of the investment fund sector to monetary policy shocks and the implications for financial stability. As the fund sector grows, so does its importance for the funding of economic activity and the transmission of monetary policy. But excessive risk-taking can also have damaging effects for the wider financial system. The box shows that expansionary shocks are associated with net inflows, which are strongest for riskier fund types, reflecting search for yield among euro area investors. Risk-taking by fund managers is also evident, as they shift away from low-yielding cash assets following an expansionary shock. While higher risk-taking is an intended consequence of expansionary monetary policy, this dynamic may give rise to a build-up of liquidity risk over time, leaving the fund sector less resilient to large outflows in the face of a crisis. For this reason, macroprudential policies that help restrict risk building up in the fund sector during extended periods of accommodative monetary policy should be developed.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 17 May 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2552Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates whether the funding behaviour of euro area debt management offices (DMOs) changed with the start of the ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP). Our results show that (i) lower yield levels and (ii) PSPP purchases supported higher maturities at issuance. The former indicates a behaviour of "locking in low rates for longer", while the latter suggests the existence of an additional "demand effect" of the PSPP on DMO strategies beyond the PSPP’s effect via yields. The combined impact of the PSPP via these channels amounts to maturity extensions at issuance of about one year in our estimation.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
- 19 November 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2489Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the role of international investment funds in the transmission of global financial conditions to the euro area using structural Bayesian vector auto regressions. While cross-border banking sector capital flows receded significantly in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, portfolio flows from investors actively searching for yield on financial markets world-wide gained importance during the post-crisis “second phase of global liquidity” (Shin, 2013). The analysis presented in this paper shows that a loosening of US monetary policy leads to higher investment fund inflows to equities and debt globally. Focussing on the euro area, these inflows not only imply elevated asset prices, but also coincide with increased debt and equity issuance. The findings demonstrate the growing importance of non-bank financial intermediation over the past decade and hold important policy implications for monetary and financial stability.
- JEL Code
- F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 25 June 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2428Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we use a medium-scale DSGE model to quantitatively assess the macroeconomic stabilisation properties of a supranational unemployment insurance scheme. The model is calibrated to the euro area's core and periphery and features a rich fiscal sector, sovereign risk premia and labour market frictions. Adopting both simple policy rules and optimal policies, our simulations point to enhanced business cycle synchronisation and interregional consumption smoothing. Depending on the exact specification, the results suggest a reduction in the volatility of consumption by up to 49% at the region-level, while the cross-regional correlation of unemployment and inflation increases by up to 52% and 27%, respectively, compared to the decentralised setting. The higher degree of inter-regional risk-sharing comes at the cost of sizable fiscal transfers. Limiting such transfers via claw-back mechanisms implies a much weaker degree of stabilisation across countries.
- JEL Code
- F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
- 5 May 2020
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 10Details
- Abstract
- Stablecoins provide an alternative to volatile crypto-assets. Depending on their asset management function, they may fall under different regulatory regimes or – with certain design features – under none at all. Given their potential size, global stablecoins could pose risks to financial stability. Such arrangements need a robust regulatory framework.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 20 November 2019
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2019Details
- Abstract
- As the role of investment funds in financing the global economy has grown, so has their role in cross-border capital flows and the global financial cycle. Movements of asset prices have become more synchronised across countries since the early 1990s, indicating that a global financial cycle has emerged. US monetary policy is often considered as one of the main drivers of this cycle. Up to the mid-2000s, banks’ cross-border flows played a key role in the global synchronisation of financial conditions. Since then, portfolio flows of investment funds actively searching for yield in financial markets worldwide have increased.
- 29 May 2019
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2019Details
- Abstract
- The Eurosystem’s asset purchase programme (APP) has contributed to a portfolio rebalancing of securities holdings within the euro area. The ECB’s asset purchases, with their largest component initiated in March 2015, have compressed the yields of securities across a wide range of asset classes. In line with the portfolio rebalancing transmission channel of monetary policy, many investors responded to these lower yields by shifting their holdings towards riskier securities with higher expected returns. Non-banks, in particular, have moved increasingly into less-liquid and lower-rated bonds as well as longer-term securities in a search for yield. To the extent that a slowdown in growth or other market or policy developments lead to an increase in term or risk premia, investors may rebalance back towards safer assets.
- 16 October 2018
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2186Details
- Abstract
- We provide evidence that liquidity premia on assets that are more relevant for private agents’ intertemporal choices than near-money assets increase in response to expansionary forward guidance announcements. We introduce a structural specification of liquidity premia based on assets’ differential pledgeability to a basic New Keynesian model to replicate this finding. This model predicts that output and inflation effects of forward guidance do not increase with the length of the guidance period and are substantially smaller than if liquidity premia were neglected. This indicates that there are no puzzling forward guidance effects when endogenous liquidity premia are taken into account.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 2023
- Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
- 2023
- Journal of the European Economic Association
- 2023
- International Journal of Central Banking
- 2019
- Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
- 2017
- Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics