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Thomas Werner

Monetary Policy

Division

Capital Markets/Financial Structure

Current Position

Head of Division

Fields of interest

Financial Economics,Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

Email

thomas.werner@ecb.int

Education
1999

Ph.D in Economics, Technical University of Darmstadt, Germany

Professional experience
2004-

European Central Bank

2000-2004

Economist, Deutsche Bundesbank

1993-2000

Research Associate and Lecturer, Department of Economics at Technical University Darmstadt and University of Frankfurt

30 October 2017
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2106
Dissecting long-term Bund yields in the run-up to the ECB's Public Sector Purchase Programme
English
Details
Abstract
Starting in summer 2014, markets began to build up expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) would embark on large-scale sovereign bond purchases. The ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) was eventually announced on 22 January 2015 and purchases started in March. Both during the run-up phase to the PSPP announcement day and for the day itself, German government bond yields declined significantly. Using an affine term structure model, we evidence that the yield declines are almost fully attributable to a decline in the term premium as opposed to the expectations component. This speaks in favour of the conjecture that the PSPP transmits to long-term yields mainly via a portfolio re-balancing channel rather than a (policy rate) signalling channel. The results prove robust against changing the number of factors in the model, the estimation sample and the estimation approach.
JEL Code
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
13 March 2017
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2033
The inflation risk premium in the post-Lehman period
English
Details
Abstract
In this paper we construct model-free and model-based indicators for the inflation risk premium in the US and the euro area. We study the impact of market liquidity, surprises from inflation data releases, inflation volatility and deflation fears on the inflation risk premium. For our analysis, we construct a special dataset with a broad range of indicators. The dataset is carefully constructed to ensure that at every point in time the series are aligned with the information set available to traders. Furthermore, we adopt a Bayesian variable selection procedure to deal with the strong multicollinearity in the variables that potentially can explain the movements in the inflation risk premium. We find that the inflation risk premium turned negative, on both sides of the Atlantic, during the post-Lehman period. This confirms the recent finding by Campbell et al. (2016) that nominal bonds are no longer "inflation bet" but have turned into "deflation hedges". We also find, and contrary to common beliefs, that indicators of inflation uncertainty alone cannot explain the movements in the inflation risk premium in the post-Lehman period. The decline in the inflation risk premium seems mostly related to increased deflation fears and the belief that inflation will stay far away from the monetary policy target rather than declining inflation uncertainty. This in turn would suggest that central banks should not be complacent with low or even negative inflation risk premia.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G17 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Financial Forecasting and Simulation
30 March 2010
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1162
Inflation risks and inflation risk premia
English
Details
Abstract
This paper investigates the link between the perceived inflation risks in macroeconomic forecasts and the inflation risk premia embodied in financial instruments. We first provide some stylized facts about the term structure of inflation compensation, inflation expectations and inflation risk premia in the euro area bond market. Latent factor models like ours fit data well, but are often criticized for lacking economic interpretation. Using survey inflation risks, we show that perceived asymmetries in inflation risks help interpret the dynamics of long-term inflation risk premia, even after controlling for a large number of macro and financial factors.
JEL Code
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
24 April 2009
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1045
The term structure of equity premia in an affine arbitrage-free model of bond and stock market dynamics
English
Details
Abstract
We estimate time-varying expected excess returns on the US stock market from 1983 to 2008 using a model that jointly captures the arbitrage-free dynamics of stock returns and nominal bond yields. The model nests the class of affine term structure (of interest rates) models. Stock returns and bond yields as well as risk premia are affine functions of the state variables: the dividend yield, two factors driving the one-period real interest rate and the rate of inflation. The model provides for each month the `term structure of equity premia', i.e. expected excess stock returns over various investment horizons. Model-implied equity premia decrease during the `dot-com' boom period, show an upward correction thereafter, and reach highest levels during the financial turmoil that started with the 2007 subprime crisis. Equity premia for longer-term investment horizons are less volatile than their short-term counterparts.
JEL Code
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
30 November 2007
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 830
The term structure of euro area break-even inflation rates: the impact of seasonality
English
Details
Abstract
This paper provides a toolkit for extracting accurate information about inflation expectations using inflation-linked bonds. First, we show how to estimate term structures of zero-coupon real rates and break-even inflation rates (BEIRs) in the euro area. This improves the analysis of developments in inflation expectations by providing constant maturity measures. Second, we show that seasonality in consumer prices introduces misleading and quantitatively important time-varying distortions in the calculated BEIRs. We explain how to correct for this in the estimation of the term structure, and thus provide a unified framework for extracting constant maturity BEIRs corrected for seasonality.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
16 January 2006
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 580
Bank interest rate pass-through in the euro area: a cross country comparison
English
Details
Abstract
The present paper investigates the pass-through between market interest rates and bank interest rates in the euro area. Compared to the large interest rate pass-through literature the paper mainly improves upon two points. First, a novel data set, partially based on new harmonised ECB bank interest rate statistics is used. Moreover, the market rates are selected in a way to match the maturities of bank and market rates using information provided by the new statistics. Secondly, new panel-econometric methods are applied to test for heterogeneity in the pass-through process. The paper shows a large heterogeneity in the pass-through of market rates to bank rates between euro area countries and finally possible explanations of the heterogeneity are discussed.
JEL Code
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
1 December 2002
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 199
Time variation in the tail behaviour of bunds futures returns
English
Details
Abstract
The present paper focuses on three questions: (i) Are heavy tails a relevant feature of the distribution of BUND futures returns? (ii) Is the tail behaviour constant over time? (iii) If it is not, can we use the tail index as an indicator for financial market risk and does it add value in addition to classical indicators? The answers to these questions are (i) yes, (ii) no, and (iii) yes. The tail index is on average around 3, implying the nonexistence of the fourth moments. A recently developed test for changes in the tail behaviour indicated several breaks in the degree of heaviness of the return tails. Interestingly, the tails of the return distribution do not move in parallel to realised volatility. This suggests that the tails of futures returns contain information for risk management that complements that gained from more standard statistical measures.
JEL Code
C14 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
G13 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Contingent Pricing, Futures Pricing
2020
Journal of Banking and Finance
Dissecting long-term Bund yields in the run-up to the ECB’s public sector purchase programme
  • L. Lemke and T. Werner
2014
Developments in macro-finance yield curve modelling
Inflation compensation and inflation risk premia in the euro area term structure of interest rates
  • J.A. Garcia and T. Werner
2007
Journal of Banking and Finance
Do central banks react to the stock market? The case of the Bundesbank
  • M. T. Bohl, P. L. Siklos and T. Werner
2006
CESifo Economic Studies
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models as a tool for policy analysis
  • J. Kremer, G. Lombardo, L. von Thadden and T. Werner
2004
Journal of Futures Markets
Time Variation in the Tail Behaviour of Bund Futures Returns
  • C. Upper and T. Werner