Fieldwork
- Who conducts the fieldwork for the survey?
- When exactly are the replies of each survey round collected?
- Where can I find the survey questionnaires and how often are these fielded?
Aggregate results
- Where can I get an overview of the latest results of the CES?
- How can I access the data behind the latest aggregate results?
- How are the CES aggregate results computed (incl. treatment of outliers)?
- Why does the CES press release refer to the median perceived and expected inflation figures, whereas for all other indicators the mean is reported?
Microdata
- How can I access the microdata?
- Why do some microdata files have different publication dates? Do I need to re-download all files whenever a new microdata release takes place?
- The data behind the question/variable I am interested in are not available in the CES public microdata files. Is there a way to access data not included in those files?
Q1. Who conducts the fieldwork for the survey?
Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) fieldwork is conducted together with an external public opinion research company. The ECB appointed Ipsos Public Affairs to provide advice and manage the “What You Expect” CES panel. More information on the data collection and sample composition is available in the methodological guide.
Q2. When exactly are the replies of each survey round collected?
CES fieldwork for each survey round typically starts on the first Thursday of a given month. It usually runs for the entire month and most respondents reply in the first few days of fieldwork. All invited panellists have until the end of the fieldwork round to complete the survey. Fieldwork typically closes on the Tuesday before the new survey round starts. More information on the data collection and sample composition is available in the methodological guide.
Q3. Where can I find the survey questionnaires and how often are these fielded?
The questions included in each CES module can be found in the microdata guide. Moreover, for each module, you can consult variable names, value labels and information on the sample structure in the CES metadata file.
The CES follows a mixed modular structure, consisting of a 20-minute core survey fielded every month followed by a shorter 10-minute survey. This follow-up survey can be either of the following: a quarterly module, or one out of four annual topical modules. The four topical modules cover issues that are highly relevant for monetary policy and financial stability analysis: consumers’ housing situations and current and past labour market experiences, specific issues of interest to central banks as well as detailed accounts of consumer and household finances. More information on the structure of the survey is available in the methodological guide.
Q4. Where can I get an overview of the latest results of the CES?
The official aggregate results of the latest CES survey round are always published monthly on the CES web page. Interactive reports provide an overview of how the aggregate series behind the most relevant four topics (inflation, housing and credit, income and consumption and labour and growth) have developed over time.
In addition, a list of analytical work and articles that use CES data and are published across several ECB outlets is available in the CES insights section of the CES web page.
Q5. How can I access the data behind the latest aggregate results?
The aggregate time series behind the official CES results are published and updated monthly in the data and methodological information section of the CES web page. In the same section, you can find a guide on how these aggregate results are computed.
Q6. How are the CES aggregate results computed (incl. treatment of outliers)?
Detailed information on how the official CES aggregate results are computed can be found in the aggregate statistics guide in the data and methodological information section of the CES web page. In general, for numeric/continuous variables on perceptions or expectations, the weighted mean and/or median is computed using observations that are winsorised at the 2nd and 98th percentile of the weighted distribution of values for each survey round and country.
Q7. Why does the CES press release refer to the median perceived and expected inflation figures, whereas for all other indicators the mean is reported?
The CES press release usually refers to the winsorised mean unless otherwise specified. The reference to the median in the case of inflation perceptions and expectations is explicitly stated in the text of the press release. Since medians tend to be a more robust measure of central tendency and are less influenced by outlier values than the mean, they are considered especially useful for commenting on results around inflation, where the survey replies show a greater role for such extreme observations compared with other variables. Larger movements in the median aggregate series are therefore only observed when the distribution of inflation expectations shifts substantially. In addition, owing to space constraints, only a narrow selection of indicators can be discussed in the press release. Nevertheless, both the mean and the median of headline series are considered relevant statistics for the analysis of CES results, and are thus included in the reports on latest results published on the CES web page, as well as in the underlying aggregate datasets available in the data and methodological information section.
Q8. How can I access the microdata?
CES microdata are published in anonymised form as public use files and are updated every quarter (usually in January, April, July and October). Check out the data and methodological information section of our web page for more details on how to access the microdata files and the terms that apply to their use. Additional microdata from the four CES annual topical modules covering topics such as housing, the labour market, central banking and consumer finances are available as microdata files in the CES in depth section. More information on the variables included in the microdata is available in our microdata guide.
Q9. Why do some microdata files have different publication dates? Do I need to re-download all files whenever a new microdata release takes place?
CES microdata files are updated every quarter. Typically, only the latest files (i.e. from the current year) are amended with the most recent data points. The background file, which includes information on household characteristics for all respondents, is always updated too. However, sometimes larger extensions of the variables covered in the microdata files take place. In these cases, all microdata files (including those from past years) are updated.
From the publication date of each file, you can check if a file has been updated and therefore needs to be re-downloaded to obtain the latest version of available microdata.
Q10. The data behind the question/variable I am interested in are not available in the CES public microdata files. Is there a way to access data not included in those files?
External researchers can access CES microdata through the public use files available on the CES web page. The CES team continually strives to expand the range of variables available in these datasets and regularly updates their content to deliver timely data to all users. Some variables are not included in the public use files due to their experimental nature or because they are still being tested and/or validated. We are committed to accommodating CES users’ needs and to disseminating high-quality data for research purposes.
Please note also that, owing to statistical disclosure and confidentiality risks, some variables cannot be shared with the wider public. For the same reason, some of the included variables are bottom-/top-coded or recoded from continuous values into bracket ranges (for additional information, please see the microdata guide).
For any further questions not mentioned in the FAQ section, please contact the ECB CES team: ECB-CES@ecb.europa.eu.