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2024 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2024 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2024 2025 2026 June 2025 June 2026 2029
Mean point estimate 2.4 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.0
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 56 56 48 44 37 46
Probability distributions 2024 2025 2026 June 2025 June 2026 2029
<-1.0% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.30.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.00.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.9 2.01.0
0.0 to 0.4% 0.5 1.6 2.9 2.1 3.72.5
0.5 to 0.9% 1.0 4.4 5.8 5.1 7.06.5
1.0 to 1.4% 3.2 11.1 11.5 13.5 13.613.1
1.5 to 1.9% 10.5 24.2 23.8 21.7 24.222.5
2.0 to 2.4% 39.9 31.8 29.1 25.1 22.526.3
2.5 to 2.9% 32.0 13.7 12.6 15.9 12.014.3
3.0 to 3.4% 7.8 6.2 6.5 8.0 5.96.8
3.5 to 3.9% 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.83.5
4.0 to 4.4% 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.71.6
4.5 to 4.9% 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.90.7
>5.0% 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.50.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2024 Q3 core inflation forecasts
  2024 2025 2026 June 2025 June 2026 2029
Mean point estimate 2.7 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 40 40 37 34 28 31
Probability distributions 2024 2025 2026 June 2025 June 2026 2029
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.10.1
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.80.5
0.0 to 0.4% 0.2 0.4 1.7 0.5 1.91.7
0.5 to 0.9% 0.3 2.3 4.5 2.1 4.55.3
1.0 to 1.4% 1.6 7.6 10.8 10.7 10.912.5
1.5 to 1.9% 5.2 21.2 24.6 22.4 24.326.0
2.0 to 2.4% 21.7 35.1 31.0 30.6 30.228.1
2.5 to 2.9% 43.6 18.9 14.8 18.0 13.814.8
3.0 to 3.4% 20.6 8.8 6.5 9.0 7.46.6
3.5 to 3.9% 4.9 3.6 3.3 4.3 3.72.7
4.0 to 4.4% 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.41.0
4.5 to 4.9% 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.60.5
>5.0% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.30.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2024 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2024 2025 2026 2025 Q1 2026 Q1 2029
Mean point estimate 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 56 56 48 49 38 41
Probability distributions 2024 2025 2026 2025 Q1 2026 Q1 2029
<-1.0% 1.3 2.0 1.2 4.7 1.82.4
-1.0 to -0.6% 2.2 1.6 1.4 2.3 1.81.1
-0.5 to -0.1% 4.7 3.2 2.9 4.0 3.73.0
0.0 to 0.4% 18.5 6.0 6.1 9.3 7.27.2
0.5 to 0.9% 44.1 12.5 11.5 17.9 12.414.7
1.0 to 1.4% 20.3 30.2 27.4 26.5 25.926.7
1.5 to 1.9% 5.4 26.2 28.3 20.2 23.824.0
2.0 to 2.4% 2.0 11.1 12.6 8.8 14.011.8
2.5 to 2.9% 0.7 4.3 5.2 3.4 5.64.9
3.0 to 3.4% 0.3 1.6 1.9 1.3 2.21.8
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.00.9
>4.0% 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.61.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2024 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2024 2025 2026 May 2025 May 2026 2029
Mean point estimate 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.4
Number of replies 49 48 42 36 31 36
Probability distributions 2024 2025 2026 May 2025 May 2026 2029
<4.0% 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.5 1.11.2
4.0 to 4.4% 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.11.1
4.5 to 4.9% 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.5 2.22.1
5.0 to 5.4% 1.6 3.5 4.0 3.3 4.46.0
5.5 to 5.9% 4.8 8.6 11.6 8.9 12.616.0
6.0 to 6.4% 36.3 31.9 31.3 29.8 29.624.5
6.5 to 6.9% 38.8 32.3 26.3 31.4 25.620.7
7.0 to 7.4% 10.9 12.8 12.7 13.5 11.311.7
7.5 to 7.9% 3.4 5.0 5.3 6.1 6.27.0
8.0 to 8.4% 1.4 1.9 2.6 2.3 3.03.9
8.5 to 8.9% 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.42.2
9.0 to 9.4% 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.71.5
9.5 to 9.9% 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.40.9
10.0 to 10.4% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.20.5
10.5 to 10.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.20.4
>11.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0