The future of global trade and implications for monetary policy
10th Joint Bank of Canada and European Central Bank conference
Monday, 22 and Tuesday, 23 September 2025
Bank of Canada
Ottawa, Canada
This conference aims to bring together researchers, policymakers, and industry participants to discuss the future of global trade and implications for monetary policy. We welcome submissions of empirical and theoretical work on all aspects of the changing landscape of global trade (including its policy and political dimensions) and its implications for the design and conduct of monetary policy.
Programme
Times are local.
* indicates the presenter
- 8:30
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Registration
- 8:45
-
Welcome & housekeeping
- 8:50
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Opening remarks
Rhys Mendes, Bank of Canada
- 9:00
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Session 1: Frictions to supply-chain adjustment
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Paper 1: Tariffs, Manufacturing Employment, and Supply Chains
Joseph B. Steinberg*, University of Toronto & NBER
Discussant: Pau Pujolas*, McMaster University
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Paper 2: Frictions and Adjustments in Firm-to-Firm Trade
François Fontaine, Julien Martin*, Université du Québec à Montréal, and Isabelle Mejean
Discussant: Andrew McCallum*, Federal Reserve Board
- 10:20
-
Coffee break
- 10:40
-
Session 2: International sanctions
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Paper 3: Monetary Policy under International Sanctions
Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim, and Galip Kemal Ozhan*, IMF
Discussant: Pablo Cuba-Borda*, Federal Reserve Board
-
Paper 4: Financial Sanctions and Russian Trade
Yang Jiao*, Singapore Management University, and Shang-Jin Wei
Discussant: Ine Van Robays*, European Central Bank
- 12:00
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Lunch
- 13:30
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Keynote Speech: Industrial Policies for Multi-Stage Production
Marc Melitz, Harvard
- 14:30
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Session 3: Macroeconomic impact of tariff shocks
-
Paper 5: Tariffs and Retaliation: A Brief Macroeconomic Analysis
Stéphane Auray, Michael Devereux*, University of British Columbia, and Aurélien Eyquem
Discussant: Matthieu Darracq Pariès*, European Central Bank
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Paper 6: Making America Great Again? The Economic Impacts of Liberation Day Tariffs
Anna Ignatenko, Ahmad Lashkaripour*, Indiana University, Luca Macedoni, and Ina Simonovska
Discussant: Jing Zhang*, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
- 15:50
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Coffee break
- 16:10
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Panel discussion: Changing Global Trade Landscape and Its Implications
- Catherine Cobden, Canadian Steel Producers Association
- Kari Heerman, Brookings Institution
- Lawrence Schembri, Fraser Institute
- 17:40
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End of first day
- 18:00
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Reception and dinner (by invitation only)
- 8:35
-
Welcome back & housekeeping
- 8:40
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Session 4: Trade and inflation in an interdependent world
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Paper 7: Heaven or Earth? The Evolving Role of Global Shocks for Domestic Monetary Policy
Kristin Forbes*, MIT, Jongrim Han, and Ayhan Kose
Discussant: Mario Crucini*, Purdue University
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Paper 8: From Border to Basket: Pass-through of U.S. Trade Policy to Consumers
Liang Bai, Torsten Søchting Jaccard, and Sebastian Stumpner*, Banque de France
Discussant: Jenny Tang*, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
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Paper 9: Trade Costs and Inflation Dynamics
Pablo Cuba-Borda, Albert Queralto, Ricardo Reyes-Heroles*, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and Mikaël Scaramucci
Discussant: Santiago Camara*, McGill University
- 10:40
-
Coffee break
- 10:55
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Keynote Speech: Economic Impact of Import Tariffs
Mary Amiti, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- 11:55
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Lunch
- 13:00
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Session 5: Implications for monetary policy
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Paper 10: Global Networks, Monetary Policy and Trade
Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Can Soylu*, Brown University, and Mohammed Yildirim
Discussant: Lu Han*, Bank of Canada
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Paper 11: The Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Tariffs
Javier Bianchi and Louphou Coulibaly*, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Discussant: Martin Bodenstein*, Federal Reserve Board
- 14:20
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Closing remarks
Matthieu Darracq Pariès, European Central Bank
-
End of conference
Organising committee
- Yuko Imura, Bank of Canada
- Kun Mo, Bank of Canada
Marie-France Paquet, Bank of Canada
- Matthieu Darracq Paries, European Central Bank
- Alistair Dieppe, European Central Bank