Arne Gieseck
- 18 April 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2807Details
- Abstract
- This study applies a model averaging approach to conditionally forecast housing investment in the largest euro area countries and the euro area. To account for substantial modelling uncertainty, it estimates many vector error correction models (VECMs) using a wide set of short and long-run determinants and selects the most promising specifications based on in-sample and out-of-sample criteria. Our results highlight marked cross-country heterogeneity in the key drivers of housing investment which calls for country-specific housing market policies. A pseudo out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that our model averaging approach beats a battery of ambitious benchmark models, including BVARs, FAVARs, LASSO and Ridge regressions. This suggests that there is ample scope for model averaging tools in forecast exercises, notably as they also help to reduce model uncertainty and can be used to assess forecast uncertainty.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C51 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
- 22 September 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box assesses the health of the euro area non-financial corporate sector at an aggregate level during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic using the quarterly sectoral accounts. The results suggest that non-financial corporate liquidity was safeguarded at the aggregated sector level. This was mainly due to a build-up of cash buffers, as is typical for crisis periods, and the timely and extensive reactions from the monetary, fiscal and supervisory authorities. Policy interventions provided direct and indirect support to non-financial corporations and enabled firms to substantially increase their recourse to debt financing. However, non-financial corporate profitability, operating efficiency, indebtedness and vulnerabilities came under pressure, increasing the risk of a rise in firm defaults in the future.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 22 September 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020Details
- Abstract
- The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered an unprecedented increase in uncertainty. This box shows how selected measures of uncertainty have evolved during the past few months and exploits the information embedded in the measure of macroeconomic uncertainty to assess its impact on economic activity. This is done by using a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model which allows the dynamic effect of an uncertainty shock on the variable of interest to be estimated.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
D80 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→General
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
- 5 February 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This article focuses on household wealth in the euro area from a macroeconomic perspective. It describes developments in financial and non-financial wealth and their driving forces. The impact of wealth on private consumption is then discussed. It concludes with some monetary policy implications.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 17 December 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2343Details
- Abstract
- This study extends a thick modelling tool for aggregated euro area real private consumption of de Bondt et al. (2019) to the four largest euro area countries. The suite of error correction models performs well in and out of sample. The ranges and averages of estimated elasticities are, however, sensitive to the exact model specification. We also show that decomposing disposable income into labour, property and transfer income is essential for understanding and forecasting consumption. Finally, substantial crosscountry heterogeneity in marginal propensities to consume out of income and wealth components calls for caution when interpreting aggregate euro area developments.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 4 July 2008
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 90Details
- Abstract
- This study presents some stylised facts on wage growth differentials across the euro area countries in the years before and in the first eight years after the introduction of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in 1999. The study shows that wage growth dispersion, i.e. the degree of difference in wage growth at a given point in time, has been on a clear downward trend since the early 1980s. However, wage growth dispersion across the euro area countries still appears to be higher than the degree of wage growth dispersion within West Germany, the United States, Italy and Spain. Differences in wage growth rates between individual euro area countries and the euro area in the years before and in the first eight years after the introduction of EMU appear to be positively related to the respective differences between their Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) infl ation and average HICP inflation in the euro area. Conversely, relative wage growth differentials across euro area countries have been somewhat unrelated to relative productivity growth differentials. Some countries combine positive wage growth differentials and negative productivity growth differentials vis-
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
C10 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→General