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Noëmie Lisack

7 February 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Estimates of the natural interest rate for the euro area: an update
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024
English
Details
Abstract
The natural rate of interest is defined as the real rate of interest that is neither expansionary nor contractionary. r* is unobservable and its estimation is fraught with a host of measurement and model-specification challenges. A wide range of estimates obtained from a suite of models and approaches suggests that cyclical measures of euro area r* have been edging higher recently. Yet slow-moving estimates anchored to long-run economic trends are unlikely to have risen measurably.
JEL Code
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy