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2020 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2020 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2020 2021 2022 Dec. 2020 Dec. 2021 2024
Mean point estimate 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 68 65 52 59 56 54
Probability distributions 2020 2021 2022 Dec. 2020 Dec. 2021 2024
<-1.0% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.20.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.40.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.71.7
0.0 to 0.4% 4.3 5.0 4.9 5.9 4.94.1
0.5 to 0.9% 18.2 16.0 13.5 20.0 15.310.7
1.0 to 1.4% 45.4 35.5 27.0 37.8 31.424.7
1.5 to 1.9% 24.1 28.5 33.4 24.0 28.631.1
2.0 to 2.4% 5.3 9.0 12.0 8.1 11.415.9
2.5 to 2.9% 1.3 3.6 4.7 1.9 4.57.0
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 0.7 1.6 0.5 1.32.7
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.31.0
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2020 Q1 core inflation forecasts
  2020 2021 2022 Dec. 2020 Dec. 2021 2024
Mean point estimate 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.6
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 48 48 39 46 44 41
Probability distributions 2020 2021 2022 Dec. 2020 Dec. 2021 2024
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.10.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.20.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.70.8
0.0 to 0.4% 3.3 4.6 3.9 3.8 3.33.7
0.5 to 0.9% 22.1 18.9 14.5 21.3 16.111.4
1.0 to 1.4% 51.0 40.6 34.8 41.2 37.930.2
1.5 to 1.9% 18.8 26.3 33.0 24.3 29.832.5
2.0 to 2.4% 3.5 6.6 9.3 6.3 8.613.4
2.5 to 2.9% 0.4 1.7 2.6 1.5 2.44.7
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.71.8
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.20.7
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.10.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2020 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2020 2021 2022 2020 Q3 2021 Q3 2024
Mean point estimate 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.4
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 69 66 51 60 57 54
Probability distributions 2020 2021 2022 2020 Q3 2021 Q3 2024
<-1.0% 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.70.8
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.01.2
-0.5 to -0.1% 2.5 2.6 2.5 3.4 2.93.2
0.0 to 0.4% 9.2 7.8 7.4 10.6 8.46.8
0.5 to 0.9% 27.2 19.3 17.3 25.3 18.016.0
1.0 to 1.4% 40.1 35.3 31.7 34.4 34.828.1
1.5 to 1.9% 14.1 21.3 24.6 15.4 20.025.2
2.0 to 2.4% 3.8 7.6 10.0 5.2 7.911.0
2.5 to 2.9% 1.4 3.0 3.4 2.1 3.54.5
3.0 to 3.4% 0.5 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.61.9
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.60.8
>4.0% 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.50.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2020 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2020 2021 2022 Nov. 2020 Nov. 2021 2024
Mean point estimate 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.3
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5
Number of replies 63 62 47 55 51 48
Probability distributions 2020 2021 2022 Nov. 2020 Nov. 2021 2024
<5.5% 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.71.5
5.5 to 5.9% 0.7 1.5 2.3 1.0 1.53.1
6.0 to 6.4% 2.1 4.3 5.7 2.7 4.28.2
6.5 to 6.9% 8.8 14.3 15.8 10.9 15.716.4
7.0 to 7.4% 37.3 34.7 30.5 33.8 29.122.8
7.5 to 7.9% 35.8 24.9 23.2 32.3 25.120.2
8.0 to 8.4% 10.8 11.4 11.5 11.9 13.112.4
8.5 to 8.9% 2.8 5.2 5.7 4.4 6.56.5
9.0 to 9.4% 0.9 1.9 2.5 1.4 2.53.7
9.5 to 9.9% 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.02.2
10.0 to 10.4% 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.51.3
10.5 to 10.9% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.20.6
11.0 to 11.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.4
11.5 to 11.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.3
12.0 to 12.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0