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2021 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2021 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2021 2022 2023 June 2022 June 2023 2026
Mean point estimate 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.8
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Number of replies 55 55 43 45 35 39
Probability distributions 2021 2022 2023 June 2022 June 2023 2026
<-1.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.20.5
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.60.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.2 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.41.2
0.0 to 0.4% 0.7 4.0 3.8 4.0 3.73.6
0.5 to 0.9% 2.3 11.4 11.7 11.7 11.39.7
1.0 to 1.4% 11.3 28.9 27.9 25.2 24.818.7
1.5 to 1.9% 41.0 29.6 30.1 32.4 32.029.5
2.0 to 2.4% 34.8 16.6 12.8 16.3 17.118.5
2.5 to 2.9% 7.4 4.8 7.6 4.8 6.29.9
3.0 to 3.4% 1.7 1.7 2.4 1.8 1.94.1
3.5 to 3.9% 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.62.3
>4.0% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.11.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2021 Q3 core inflation forecasts
  2021 2022 2023 June 2022 June 2023 2026
Mean point estimate 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Number of replies 42 42 36 36 30 30
Probability distributions 2021 2022 2023 June 2022 June 2023 2026
<-1.0% 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.10.4
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.20.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.41.1
0.0 to 0.4% 4.3 5.2 3.9 5.3 4.83.6
0.5 to 0.9% 22.0 20.9 13.9 20.6 17.210.3
1.0 to 1.4% 47.6 36.4 32.8 34.8 30.123.1
1.5 to 1.9% 19.7 23.7 27.0 22.5 27.230.7
2.0 to 2.4% 4.0 8.2 12.4 10.5 11.916.4
2.5 to 2.9% 0.6 2.5 5.2 3.1 4.87.1
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 0.7 2.2 0.9 1.84.1
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.52.0
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.01.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2021 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2021 2022 2023 2022 Q1 2023 Q1 2026
Mean point estimate 4.7 4.6 2.1 6.1 2.4 1.4
Standard deviation 0.7 1.4 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.4
Number of replies 56 56 43 46 36 39
Probability distributions 2021 2022 2023 2022 Q1 2023 Q1 2026
<-1.0% 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.70.9
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.61.2
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.2 1.02.6
0.0 to 0.4% 0.1 0.3 2.7 0.2 2.35.9
0.5 to 0.9% 0.2 0.7 6.2 0.3 4.316.0
1.0 to 1.4% 0.3 1.1 14.9 0.4 8.423.4
1.5 to 1.9% 0.5 1.5 20.7 0.7 15.725.5
2.0 to 2.4% 1.3 2.7 24.7 1.6 20.011.7
2.5 to 2.9% 3.1 5.6 12.8 3.3 18.47.2
3.0 to 3.4% 7.5 10.4 6.3 8.4 12.82.4
3.5 to 3.9% 22.2 26.2 4.0 10.7 9.31.3
4.0 to 5.9% 51.9 37.5 3.8 26.4 4.11.5
6.0 to 7.9% 8.8 8.6 1.8 34.0 1.40.3
8.0 to 9.9% 2.6 1.9 0.1 10.6 0.30.1
>10.0% 1.4 2.6 0.0 2.7 0.70.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2021 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2021 2022 2023 May 2022 May 2023 2026
Mean point estimate 8.1 7.8 7.5 7.9 7.6 7.2
Standard deviation 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Number of replies 50 49 39 36 29 32
Probability distributions 2021 2022 2023 May 2022 May 2023 2026
<5.5% 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.1 1.02.0
5.5 to 5.9% 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.5 1.83.6
6.0 to 6.4% 0.6 2.0 4.6 1.3 4.37.9
6.5 to 6.9% 1.3 6.8 12.3 5.8 11.015.6
7.0 to 7.4% 6.6 23.0 26.6 16.3 24.026.0
7.5 to 7.9% 33.7 30.2 27.7 28.6 22.318.8
8.0 to 8.4% 36.5 20.7 13.9 23.9 18.211.4
8.5 to 8.9% 14.3 9.4 7.2 14.2 8.45.9
9.0 to 9.4% 4.2 3.7 3.0 4.7 6.45.0
9.5 to 9.9% 1.2 1.8 1.1 2.2 1.41.7
10.0 to 10.4% 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.90.9
10.5 to 10.9% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.10.4
11.0 to 11.4% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.00.2
11.5 to 11.9% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.00.1
12.0 to 12.4% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.00.1
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.00.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.00.1
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0