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2016 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2016 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2016 2017 2018 June 2017 June 2018 2021
Mean point estimate 0.3 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.8
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 50 49 38 40 34 37
Probability distributions 2016 2017 2018 June 2017 June 2018 2021
<-1.0% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.10.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 2.3 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.50.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 17.0 2.7 1.5 4.2 1.71.0
0.0 to 0.4% 56.3 9.2 5.8 14.5 6.13.5
0.5 to 0.9% 19.0 21.6 13.4 21.0 14.68.4
1.0 to 1.4% 3.9 34.9 28.3 32.3 29.219.5
1.5 to 1.9% 0.8 21.2 30.7 17.2 28.036.2
2.0 to 2.4% 0.2 6.7 13.2 6.5 12.418.6
2.5 to 2.9% 0.1 2.1 4.7 2.3 4.97.9
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.6 1.72.9
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.61.0
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.20.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2016 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2016 2017 2018 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2021
Mean point estimate 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 51 50 38 40 34 36
Probability distributions 2016 2017 2018 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2021
<-1.0% 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.30.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.60.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.5 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.51.4
0.0 to 0.4% 1.9 4.5 4.4 6.8 4.73.7
0.5 to 0.9% 8.9 13.6 11.3 17.2 12.49.7
1.0 to 1.4% 33.4 32.0 27.8 33.5 28.722.8
1.5 to 1.9% 40.9 29.7 30.9 27.0 30.231.2
2.0 to 2.4% 11.3 12.0 15.0 8.8 14.217.9
2.5 to 2.9% 2.3 3.3 5.5 2.4 4.97.5
3.0 to 3.4% 0.6 1.0 2.2 0.9 1.73.4
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.51.3
>4.0% 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.40.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2016 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2016 2017 2018 May 2017 May 2018 2021
Mean point estimate 10.1 9.7 9.5 9.8 9.6 8.8
Standard deviation 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6
Number of replies 46 45 33 36 29 31
Probability distributions 2016 2017 2018 May 2017 May 2018 2021
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.01.3
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.22.4
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.2 0.54.1
7.5 to 7.9% 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.4 1.16.8
8.0 to 8.4% 0.8 2.2 4.9 1.6 3.511.4
8.5 to 8.9% 2.6 5.0 10.5 4.6 10.919.7
9.0 to 9.4% 3.7 15.5 22.4 16.2 21.523.8
9.5 to 9.9% 21.4 32.7 28.5 30.2 29.517.0
10.0 to 10.4% 48.9 27.4 17.2 27.9 18.88.3
10.5 to 10.9% 17.4 11.3 8.5 12.6 8.73.5
11.0 to 11.4% 3.8 2.9 3.0 4.2 3.51.1
11.5 to 11.9% 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.00.4
12.0 to 12.4% 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.30.2
12.5 to 12.9% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.20.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0