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Kezdőlap Média Kisokos Kutatás és publikációk Statisztika Monetáris politika Az €uro Fizetésforgalom és piacok Karrier
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ELŐADÁS

Az eurorendszer új mérlege felé

A mennyiségi normalizáció zökkenőmentesen halad – mondta Isabel Schnabel, az Igazgatóság tagja. Az operatív keretrendszerünk olyan tartalékellátási sorrendet határoz meg a jövőre nézve, amely a bőséges likviditást biztosító standard refinanszírozási műveletekkel kezdődik.

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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more

KONFERENCIA 2025. november 6.

Az EKB konferenciája a pénzpiacokról

Csatlakozzon hozzánk ma 9:00-től (CET) az EKB éves pénzpiaci konferenciájának első napján, ahol megjelennek a tudományos élet képviselői, a piaci szakemberek és a jegybankárok, hogy megvitassák a pénzpiacok legfrissebb fejleményeit és a jövőben megoldandó feladatokat.

Egyenes közvetítés
MONETÁRIS POLITIKA 2025. október 30.

Monetáris politikai közleményünk röviden

Melyek az új monetáris politikai közleményünk főbb pontjai, és mit vettünk figyelembe a döntés során? A vizuális közleményben mindezt tömören és közérthetően ismertetjük.

További információk
AZ EKB BLOGJA 2025. november 4.

Az euro támogatottsága megerősödik az átvétel után

Sok bolgár vegyes érzésekkel tekint a leva január 1-ji feladása elé, ami nem ritka az eurót átvevő országokban. A felmérések adatai ugyanakkor arra utalnak, hogy a támogatottság jelentősen felerősödik, ahogy az emberek elkezdik az eurót használni a mindennapokban.

Blogbejegyzés (angol)
5 November 2025
PRESS RELEASE
Deutsch
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4 November 2025
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
Annexes
4 November 2025
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
31 October 2025
GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONS
31 October 2025
PRESS RELEASE
Deutsch
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31 October 2025
MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
Deutsch
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6 November 2025
Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the 26th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference organised by the International Monetary Fund in Washington D.C., USA
6 November 2025
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Money Markets 2025
Annexes
6 November 2025
4 November 2025
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the high-level conference on “Bulgaria on the Doorstep of the Eurozone”, jointly organised by the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance and Българска народна банка (Bulgarian National Bank)
English
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3 November 2025
Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Technological University in Dublin
30 October 2025
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Florence, 30 October 2025
9 October 2025
Interview with Piero Cipollone, conducted by Žanete Hāka-Rikarde and Priit Pokk on 29 September 2025
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (3) +
25 September 2025
Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, conducted by Francesco Ninfole on 24 September 2025
English
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Related
17 September 2025
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Anja Ettel and Holger Zschäpitz
English
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3 September 2025
Contribution by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to IMF Finance & Development Magazine
28 August 2025
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Francesco Canepa and Balazs Koranyi on 28 August 2025
4 November 2025
Many Bulgarians are still hesitant about giving up the Lev on 1 January. Mixed feelings are not uncommon in countries adopting the euro. However, survey data show that support significantly increases once people start using the euro in their daily lives.
English
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Details
JEL Code
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
Z18 : Other Special Topics→Cultural Economics, Economic Sociology, Economic Anthropology→Public Policy
20 October 2025
The economist Robert Lucas famously wrote that “Once one starts to think about economic growth, it is hard to think about anything else.” The Nobel committee seems to agree. For the second year in a row, it has chosen to honour work on economic growth. This ECB Blog post looks at the research of this year’s laureates.
Details
JEL Code
O10 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→General
17 October 2025
Banks have bought back over €60 billion of their own shares since 2020, which is a sign of the industry’s confidence. However, share buybacks can also reduce the capital banks have available for potential crises. This blog post examines how euro area banks’ share prices reacted to these buybacks.
Details
JEL Code
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
10 October 2025
Do European workers see US tariff hikes as a threat to their job security? According to an ECB survey, while most workers are fairly relaxed, those in export-oriented sectors and those with lower incomes are more worried about their jobs than before the tariff increase.
Details
JEL Code
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F16 : International Economics→Trade→Trade and Labor Market Interactions
2 October 2025
Uncertainty is a key force shaping economic conditions. This post shows that heightened uncertainty about economic policy in the United States significantly affects firm lending in the euro area. This weighs on investment and reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy.
Details
JEL Code
E00 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→General
6 November 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3145
Details
Abstract
This paper studies the effect of alternative monetary policy responses and the implementation of different fiscal policy measures to an inflationary shock in a monetary union, through the lens of a global DSGE model calibrated to the euro area. We find that a more aggressive monetary policy response mitigates the inflation surge, but has a detrimental impact on economic activity that imposes a stronger increase of public debt, reducing the fiscal policy space. We also find that some fiscal policy measures may alleviate the negative impact of the shock on households and firms, but do not significantly alter the inflation dynamics: a reduction of consumption taxes reduces inflation only temporarily, while an increase of transfers or of public investment slightly increase inflation initially, even if the latter may have a protracted negative impact. Overall, an appropriate mix of monetary and fiscal policies may be needed to ensure a swift return of inflation to target, while mitigating the impact on consumption. Targeting transfers to support constrained households has a mild impact on inflation, but may be a way to mitigate the impact on the most vulnerable with a less detrimental effect on public debt.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
6 November 2025
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 377
Details
Abstract
This paper serves as a reference guide on the effects of “standard” monetary policy shocks on output and prices, based on harmonised simulation exercises conducted across models of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), meta-analysis of existing empirical literature for the euro area, and selected works on heterogeneity and non-linearities in the monetary transmission mechanism as captured by empirical models. Our analysis starts by comparing the effects of monetary policy shocks as estimated by structural, semi-structural and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, and identifying the main sources of heterogeneity – most notably via the specification of monetary policy rules, the slope of the Phillips curve, the role of real rigidities and financial frictions, and the expectations formation mechanism. While DSGE models tend to produce sharper responses, semi-structural models often reveal more gradual and persistent effects, in line with backward-looking empirical models. The second chapter presents a meta-analysis of estimated effects based on the empirical literature, which are broadly consistent with the results obtained from the ESCB models, although differences might appear when correcting for publication bias, or accounting for different identification frameworks. The study is then complemented by selected works on heterogeneity and non-linearities in the monetary transmission mechanism as captured by empirical models. Our analysis in the final chapter shows that monetary policy transmission is heterogeneous across countries, sectors, demand components, and time. It also reveals important non-linear and state-dependent dynamics: in high-inflation periods, greater price and wage flexibility amplifies the response of inflation while dampening output effects, thereby lowering the sacrifice ratio. [...]
JEL Code
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
D58 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
5 November 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3144
Details
Abstract
Motivated by current events, this paper assesses the impact of tariff increases on bilateral greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) over the period 2016-2023. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset of announced greenfield investment projects, official FDI statistics, and bilateral product-level tariff data, we estimate a series of gravity equations to uncover key relationships. Our results show that, at an aggregate level, tariff increases are associated with a rise in greenfield FDI, consistent with the tariff-jumping hypothesis. However, this positive effect reverses for greenfield manufacturing FDI, where high-intensity tariff increases significantly deter investment. A sectoral analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity: consumer-facing industries tend to attract more investment following tariff hikes, while input-intensive sectors experience declines. Overall, our findings suggest that using tariffs to stimulate foreign manufacturing investment is a risky strategy.
JEL Code
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
F68 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Policy
5 November 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3143
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Abstract
This paper investigates whether geopolitical risk causes a reduction in bank lending. In particular, it focuses on how the increase in geopolitical risk stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected euro area bank credit supply. Matching granular supervisory and credit register data and using a panel difference-in-difference approach, the results show that banks with larger exposure to the increase in geopolitical risk cut lending significantly more than those with smaller exposure. Banks with greater exposure raised impairments despite exhibiting similar levels of credit distress to their peers, suggesting that the fall in lending was driven by uncertainty. Moreover, firms that were heavily reliant on banks with high exposure to geopolitical risk were unable to fully substitute this shortfall in credit by borrowing more from less affected banks, which significantly constrained firm investment and employment.
JEL Code
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
4 November 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3142
Details
Abstract
In recent years, projects have sought to embed distributional aspects within national accounts, with household distributional information set to feature in the next System of National Accounts. There is growing emphasis on capturing all material dimensions of welfare—income, consumption, and wealth—at both macro and micro levels within a unified framework. This paper develops distributional multidimensional accounts for income and wealth, building on the Distributional Wealth Accounts (DWA), an experimental quarterly dataset first released in January 2024 by the European System of Central Banks. The DWA integrates the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) with macro statistics on household financial and non-financial balance sheets. We use the HFCS’s micro population to estimate consistent joint income transactions for these households, enabling analysis of the joint distribution of income and wealth, including wealth by income decile. This is the first multi-country approach to cover complete income accounts to disposable income and full balance sheets on a shared household sample.
JEL Code
D30 : Microeconomics→Distribution→General
D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
4 November 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3141
Details
Abstract
We model how a central bank communicates its noisy forecasts (forward guidance) while taking into account its own uncertainty (confidence) and the public’s perception of the bank’s uncertainty (reputation for confidence). This creates a mismatch between the public and central bank’s interpretation of the bank announcement which induces the bank to communicate with partial transparency and deliberate imprecision. Moreover, with higher confidence (lower reputation) announcements are more precise. With text data from internal Fed documents and newspapers, we find communication patterns are largely consistent with the model except the Fed’s communication strategy underreacts to reputation compared to the model.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
C49 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Other
3 November 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3140
Details
Abstract
How do banks manage the behavioural maturity of non-maturing deposits (NMDs)? Using a rich and confidential dataset, we investigate how banks model deposit maturities based on internal assumptions. Although NMDs are contractually floating-rate liabilities with zero maturity, banks reallocate them across different maturity buckets using models that reflect past customer behaviour. Notably, only 20% of NMDs are treated as having zero maturity, while about 10% are assigned maturities beyond seven years. We assess whether these modelling assumptions align with banks’ deposit structures. Results show that banks with more volatile, interest rate-sensitive, and digitalised deposit bases tend to assign shorter maturities, appropriately reflecting underlying risks. However, during the recent monetary policy tightening, banks with more sensitive NMDs did not shorten assumed maturities or update models. These findings underscore the critical importance of timely and accurate calibration of NMD assumptions to support effective asset-liability management and preserve financial stability.
JEL Code
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
3 November 2025
SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
31 October 2025
LEGAL WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 23
Details
Abstract
On 9 April 2024, the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) delivered a landmark ruling in Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz and Others v. Switzerland. The ruling was handed down together with two further rulings in Duarte Agostinho and others v. Portugal and others, and in Carême v. France. The ruling marked the first time the ECtHR held that insufficient climate action by a state constitutes a violation of human rights under the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). While primarily having an impact on Switzerland as a defending State, the ruling is expected to indirectly affect the legal order of the European Union and its institutions. Moreover, the findings of the ECtHR have been reinforced by recent advisory opinions of other international courts and tribunals, in particular the opinion of the International Court of Justice, handed down on 23 July 2025. This paper first recalls the key facts and outcomes from each of the three ECtHR climate rulings and explores the key findings in greater detail. Second, the paper outlines the climate rulings of other international courts and tribunals. Thereafter, the paper explains the relevance of the KlimaSeniorinnen ruling for the Union and its institutions. First, as a matter of substance, the paper explains how the ruling carries lessons for the ambition and implementation of the climate policies of the Union and its Member States. Second, the paper goes on to explore the procedural avenues for litigants to bring an action before the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), to challenge Union policies on the basis of the ECtHR’s ruling. The paper then outlines how the ruling may be relevant to the ECB, and for the national central banks (NCBs) and national competent authorities (NCAs) within the Eurosystem and Single Supervisory Mechanism. Finally, the paper explores how the ruling may be relevant to the financial sector, insofar as it increases the risk of litigation, and risks related to the process of adjustment towards a low-carbon economy (transition risk).
31 October 2025
OTHER PUBLICATION
Annexes
31 October 2025
SURVEY ON CREDIT TERMS AND CONDITIONS IN EURO-DENOMINATED SECURITIES FINANCING AND OTC DERIVATIVES MARKETS
31 October 2025
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2025
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 71 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 29 September and 9 October 2025, business conditions improved slightly in recent months, but they remained consistent with only modest growth in activity, with the manufacturing sector still weighed down by tariffs, uncertainty and challenges to competitiveness. The employment outlook also remained relatively subdued. Price growth continued to moderate. In recent months this was mainly due to slowing price rises in parts of the services sector, while prices in the manufacturing sector remained stable in a context of weak demand and increasing import competition. Firms remained confident that wage growth would continue slowing.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
31 October 2025
SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
Annexes
31 October 2025
SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
30 October 2025
LETTERS TO MEPS
30 October 2025
DIGITAL EURO PREPARATION PHASE - PROGRESS REPORT
28 October 2025
EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
Annexes
28 October 2025
EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY - ANNEX
27 October 2025
SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREA
Annexes
27 October 2025
SAFE QUESTIONNAIRE
20 October 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3139
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Abstract
This paper studies the effects of fiscal policy announcements on household expectations. We document announcements of price-related expansionary fiscal measures in response to the cost-of-living crisis in the four largest euro area economies and exploit the exogenous timing of fiscal actions relative to household survey participation to estimate their causal effects. Following fiscal announcements, households revise their beliefs: inflation perceptions rise, and unemployment perceptions fall. The latter effect persists into short-run unemployment expectations, while inflation expectations remain unchanged and suggest households perceived inflationary pressures as temporary. These results suggest a significant signaling channel of fiscal policy, as fiscal announcements reveal information about the underlying economic conditions and the government’s commitment to stabilization. We rationalize these findings through a general equilibrium New Keynesian model extended with information frictions and an inflation-stabilizing role for fiscal policy. The model isolates the informational content of fiscal policy and shows that belief revisions are consistent with demand-driven dynamics.
JEL Code
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
17 October 2025
LETTERS TO MEPS
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14 October 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3138
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Abstract
This paper proposes a unified framework to study the permanent and transitory origins of US economic fluctuations. The model provides a reasonable account of the evolution of the economy in the post-war period and of the recent inflation episode. Overall, it constitutes a comprehensive framework to offer policy guidance and a flexible empirical counterpart to more heavily-parametrized structural models.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
13 October 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3137
Details
Abstract
This chapter of the Research Handbook of Inflation (2025) reviews the evolution and current relevance of medium-scale New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, which serve as part of the core analytical framework in central banks and academic macroeconomics. The chapter assesses their capacity to analyse inflation dynamics, monetary transmission mechanisms, and policy interventions. Despite their exclusion of crisis-specific features, canonical models such as Smets and Wouters (2007) continue to explain inflation and output dynamics in the euro area and the US, owing in part to the differentiated effects of cost-push and demand shocks and the mitigating role of monetary policy. The chapter traces advancements in the European Central Bank’s New Area-Wide Model (NAWM), highlighting extensions that incorporate financial frictions, effective lower bounds, and energy price shocks. These enhancements have strengthened the model’s forecasting performance and interpretative power, especially during periods of unconventional monetary policy and energy-driven inflation. DSGE models are shown to be particularly effective for policy counterfactuals, enabling real-time assessments of policy decisions relative to model-based optimal policy. A robustness analysis under alternative scenarios demonstrates how policy rules can be evaluated through a welfare lens, informing the design of resilient monetary frameworks. Finally, the chapter identifies key modelling challenges exposed by recent inflation episodes and advocates for richer supply-side structures and nonlinear dynamics to improve the models’ capacity to capture complex macroeconomic developments.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
C63 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computational Techniques, Simulation Modeling

Kamatlábak

Betéti rendelkezésre állás 2,00 %
Irányadó refinanszírozási műveletek (rögzített kamatláb) 2,15 %
Aktív oldali rendelkezésre állás 2,40 %
2025. június 11. Az EKB eddigi irányadó kamatai

Inflációs ráta

Bővebben az inflációról

Árfolyam

USD US dollar 1.1533
JPY Japanese yen 177.15
GBP Pound sterling 0.88070
CHF Swiss franc 0.9316
Utolsó frissítés: 2025. november 6. Devizaárfolyamok az euróval szemben