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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more
ΣΥΝΕΝΤΕΥΞΗ
25 Σεπτεμβρίου 2025
Οι δυνατότητες καινοτομίας του ψηφιακού ευρώ
Η πλατφόρμα καινοτομίας για το ψηφιακό ευρώ έφερε κοντά πανεπιστήμια, εταιρείες χρηματοοικονομικής τεχνολογίας (fintech), νεοφυείς επιχειρήσεις (start-up) και επιχειρήσεις λιανικής, δηλώνει το μέλος της Εκτελεστικής Επιτροπής Piero Cipollone στη Milano Finanza. Τα αποτελέσματα ήταν πολύ ενθαρρυντικά και θα ακολουθήσει ένας δεύτερος γύρος πειραματισμών.
Διαβάστε τη συνέντευξη του Piero Cipollone
ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΟ ΔΕΛΤΙΟ
25 Σεπτεμβρίου 2025
H EKT εκδίδει το Οικονομικό Δελτίο
Αυτή η έκδοση παρουσιάζει τις οικονομικές και νομισματικές πληροφορίες στις οποίες στηρίζονται οι αποφάσεις πολιτικής του Διοικητικού Συμβουλίου. Δημοσιεύεται οκτώ φορές τον χρόνο, δύο εβδομάδες μετά από κάθε συνεδρίαση για θέματα νομισματικής πολιτικής.
Διαβάστε το νέο τεύχος
ΤΟ ΙΣΤΟΛΟΓΙΟ ΤΗΣ ΕΚΤ
25 Σεπτεμβρίου 2025
Πληθωρισμός των τιμών των ειδών διατροφής στη ζώνη του ευρώ
Ο συνολικός πληθωρισμός έχει ομαλοποιηθεί, αλλά ο πληθωρισμός και οι τιμές των ειδών διατροφής παραμένουν σε υψηλό επίπεδο. Σε άρθρο στο ιστολόγιο της ΕΚΤ εξετάζονται πιο προσεκτικά τα αίτια και οι συνέπειες των επίμονα υψηλών τιμών των ειδών διατροφής.
Διαβάστε το ιστολόγιο της ΕΚΤ- 25 September 2025
- MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 24 September 2025
- MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREA
- 24 September 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 23 September 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 23 September 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 18 September 2025
- BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (MONTHLY)
- 17 September 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 17 September 2025
- Keynote speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Resilience Conference hosted by De Nederlandsche Bank
- 17 September 2025
- Slides by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at ABI Executive Committee meeting
- 17 September 2025
- Welcome address by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at 10th ECB Annual Research Conference joint with Stanford’s Hoover Institution on ‘The Next Financial Crisis?’
- 15 September 2025
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, 'Conversations pour demain' on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of Institut Montaigne in Paris, France
- 15 September 2025
- Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the European Investment Bank Chief Economists’ meeting
- 25 September 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, conducted by Francesco Ninfole on 24 September 2025
- 17 September 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Anja Ettel and Holger Zschäpitz
- 3 September 2025
- Contribution by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to IMF Finance & Development Magazine
- 28 August 2025
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Francesco Canepa and Balazs Koranyi on 28 August 2025
- 26 July 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, conducted by Miha Jenko on 10 July 2025
- 25 September 2025
- While overall inflation has normalised and currently lies at the ECB’s 2% medium-term target, food inflation is higher. To put a meal on the table, consumers pay roughly a third more than before the pandemic. This ECB Blog looks at the causes and consequences for monetary policy.Details
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 22 September 2025
- A small group of banks is crucial for the smooth functioning of euro area sovereign bond markets. They buy bonds from issuing governments and sell them on to final holders. To play this role, they need sufficient resources, especially capital. This blog examines potential signs of strain in the intermediation process.Details
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 16 September 2025
- A field experiment indicates that direct communication with ECB visitors better anchors their inflation expectations. Visitors with little knowledge of monetary policy are particularly likely to align their expectations with the ECB’s inflation target after speaking to central bankers.Details
- JEL Code
- E69 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Other
- 1 September 2025
- Economic uncertainty has been elevated recently due to geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions. This blog post investigates whether, and how much, high economic uncertainty affects monetary policy transmission in the euro area.
- 27 August 2025
- Services are playing a growing role in global trade. The ECB Blog shows that this trend has been driven by a decline in non-tariff trade barriers. The euro area has benefited more than other regions and is highly competitive in the services sector.
- 25 September 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3122Details
- Abstract
- This study introduces a novel approach to dictionary-based sentiment analysis that extracts valuable insights from economic newspaper articles in the euro area without requiring article translation. We develop sentiment indices that accurately measure economic, labour, and inflation perceptions in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain using native-language texts. The aggregation of these country-specific sentiments provides a reliable indicator for the euro area as a whole, demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach in several nowcasting and forecasting experiments. This translation-free method significantly reduces resource requirements, facilitates easy replication across various languages, and enables daily updates. By eliminating the translation bottleneck, our approach emerges as one of the most timely and cost-effective economic measures available, offering a powerful tool for monitoring and forecasting business cycles in the multilingual context of the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
- 25 September 2025
- DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 27Details
- Abstract
- How large are the distributional effects of monetary policy in the euro area? Does heterogeneity matter for monetary policy? We answer these questions based on the results of research projects conducted at the ECB under the aegis of a dedicated research task force. A monetary policy easing causes a temporary reduction in consumption inequality; this is the case for both conventional and unconventional monetary policy. Accounting for heterogeneity at the household level provides a new perspective on the policy transmission mechanism, but it doesnot fundamentally alter our views of aggregate dynamics. Heterogeneity across firms appearsto provide useful information to explain and forecast aggregate variables.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 25 September 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN
- 25 September 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This article uses a suite of macroeconomic models to assess the economic impacts of an increase in euro area defence spending. Multipliers of government purchases average just below 1, and there is notable model uncertainty. Pressures on HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) inflation increase only gradually over time. An analysis of the transmission channels suggests that private sector expectations of higher future interest rates and taxes may substantially reduce fiscal multipliers. As regards the distributional consequences of increased spending, we find mild cross-country spillovers and markedly different effects on consumption across the wealth distribution.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 25 September 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box describes the Eurosystem liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations in the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods of 2025, from 23 April to 29 July 2025.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 25 September 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Manufacturing activity in the euro area rebounded in early 2025, while services activity slowed, marking a reversal of the trends observed in the previous two years. This box analyses the role of frontloading effects and trade policy uncertainty in driving recent production dynamics. It argues that manufacturing benefited temporarily from frontloading ahead of US tariff measures, while services were more directly affected by rising trade policy uncertainty. In particular, hard data reveal that manufacturing subsectors with higher exposure to the United States (e.g. pharmaceuticals) exhibited larger fluctuations around the April tariff announcements. Moreover, survey data indicate that business services, which are closely linked to business investment, have been more sensitive to uncertainty than consumer services. Looking ahead, if trade policy uncertainty were to remain high, it could continue to weigh on services and more visibly affect manufacturing as frontloading effects fade, yet the recent EU US trade agreement is expected to reduce uncertainty.
- JEL Code
- E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 25 September 2025
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 134Details
- Abstract
- In surveys with information provision experiments, researchers can observe how people change beliefs, and sometimes also actions, after having been confronted with information. This article interprets information provision experiments from the perspective of the theory of rational inattention, discussing what survey findings tell us about economic behaviour outside the survey and deriving implications for central bank communication. One implication is that there may be a weak response from individuals to certain kinds of real‑world policy communication even though they respond strongly during an information provision experiment.
- JEL Code
- D8 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
D9 : Microeconomics→Intertemporal Choice
E7 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
- 24 September 2025
- LETTERS AND RESPONSES
- 24 September 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Despite payment digitisation, euro banknote demand remains robust and has sharply intensified during crises. This article examines the role of cash as a safe haven and contingency instrument during four diverse crisis episodes in the euro area (the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the April 2025 Iberian blackout and the Greek sovereign debt crisis), each differing in shock type (health, geopolitical, infrastructure, sovereign debt) and geographical scope (euro area-wide, regional and national). We combine descriptive analysis of monthly and daily currency data with Bayesian causal impact models using daily net issuance and automated teller machine (ATM) withdrawals. This allows us, for the first time in this context, to statistically attribute significant public demand surges to specific shocks. The results highlight that the unique attributes of cash – its tangibility, offline functionality and status as a direct central bank liability – become paramount during stress, across different types of crises and geographies, fulfilling specific roles in each case. We argue that, beyond individual utility, cash provides crucial system-wide benefits such as payment redundancy and decentralised liquidity. These findings underscore the importance of policies ensuring continued access to cash and recognising its fundamental contribution to economic stability and crisis preparedness.
- JEL Code
- E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
H12 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Crisis Management
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
- 24 September 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2025Details
- Abstract
- The level of attention paid to inflation affects people’s inflation expectations and, in turn, price and wage-setting decisions. This box puts forward a measure of inflation attention based on a substantial corpus of newspaper articles from the largest euro area countries. The measure is derived from the proportion of articles that contain inflation-related keywords. The indicator spiked during the recent high inflation period, reflecting an increased focus on price developments. Although inflation attention has eased since, this decrease has been more gradual than the decline in inflation itself, mirroring trends observed in consumers’ inflation perceptions. Attention remains relatively high, particularly with regard to food price developments, which could have implications for how future inflation shocks affect inflation expectations and propagate through the economy.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
- 24 September 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3121Details
- Abstract
- This paper assesses the environmental performance of sustainability-related investment funds compared to conventional ones across three dimensions: financed activities, portfolio carbon footprint, and investment in firms with ambitious science-based targets. We identify ESG funds using Morningstar (MS) strategies, the Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation’s Article 8/9 classification, and funds’ self-naming. We find that the greenest funds invest more in low-carbon sectors, but their carbon footprints are comparable to conventional funds. Also, MS Low-Carbon and Art.8 funds tend to invest in the same sectors as conventional funds but target less polluting firms. Overall, results reveal inconsistencies between ESG labels and outcomes, highlighting the limited role these funds currently play in financing the transition to a net-zero economy.
- JEL Code
- C58 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
Q56 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Environment and Development, Environment and Trade, Sustainability, Environmental Accounts and Accounting, Environmental Equity, Population Growth
- 24 September 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3120Details
- Abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have complicated macroeconomic forecasting and policymaking due to unprecedented disruptions in supply chains and energy markets, suggesting a new macroeconomic regime. However, we are unable to reject the null hypothesis of no structural break in March 2020. We then examine whether these shocks have increased post-COVID-19. Their sizes were initially elevated, but then have been gradually returning to pre-pandemic levels. The linear and nonlinear models reveal that supply chain disruptions cause persistent increases in expected inflation and headline goods prices, while energy supply shocks have a transitory inflation effect. The nonlinear model shows that real GDP is adversely affected by supply shocks in low growth periods.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 23 September 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3119Details
- Abstract
- This paper introduces the European Central Bank’s Multi Country model (ECB-MC), a coherent macroeconomic framework designed to support economic forecasting and policy analysis within the Eurosystem. The ECB-MC captures the economic dynamics of the five major economies in the euro area – Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands – which account for more than 80 percent of the euro area total GDP. By incorporating detailed structural features and data-driven insights, the model provides the main reference for the ECB’s staff macroeconomic projections, acting as a disciplined tool for forecasting, enabling scenario, risk and sensitivity analyses, and giving a framework to understand the transmission channels of various economic shocks. The paper offers a detailed account of the structure, the estimation and the model properties, and provides a primer on the potential uses of the ECB-MC in the Eurosystem macroeconomic projections.
- JEL Code
- C3 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables
C5 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- 23 September 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3118Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines whether firm-specific cyclical and idiosyncratic risk profiles influence corporate bond spreads and the transmission of monetary policy. I extend the standard excess bond premium (EBP) framework of Gilchrist & Zakrajšek (2012) to allow investors’ required compensation for default risk to vary with firm-level risks. Incorporating these effects reveals that a significantly larger share of a monetary policy shock’s impact on credit spreads is driven by changes in default risk compensation (as opposed to the EBP). In particular, for firms with more cyclical risk, up to one-fourth of the additional spread widening following a contractionary monetary policy shock reflects higher expected default compensation, substantially more than implied by the traditional EBP. By contrast, firms with high idiosyncratic risk show no strong differential response to monetary policy shocks relative to other firms.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
- 23 September 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the vulnerability of the euro area to China’s export restrictions on rare earth elements. Rare earth elements are essential for industries such as defence, electric vehicles, energy and electronics. Disruption to their supply poses significant risks because of their extensive use in manufacturing. A significant share of the rare earth supplies to the euro area is also indirectly sourced through intermediaries, particularly US firms, which themselves depend heavily on Chinese producers. Recent export restrictions have already disrupted European industries, with the automotive sector experiencing production halts caused by critically low stock. Such dependencies expose the euro area to vulnerabilities from future supply shocks, with potential ripple effects on industrial output and inflation.
- JEL Code
- F12 : International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
L14 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Transactional Relationships, Contracts and Reputation, Networks
- 22 September 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3117Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the macroeconomic impact of substantial tariffs imposed by the second Trump administration on imports from China and the euro area and their transmission through direct and indirect channels. Using the ECB-Global 3.0 semi-structural model, we show that tariffs raise US import prices and lead to tighter US monetary policy, with the managed float of the renminbi partly offsetting adverse effects in China, while appreciation of the dollar undermines US export competitiveness. In the euro area, euro depreciation provides limited output support but intensifies imported inflation and triggers additional policy tightening. We assess the sensitivity of these results to key assumptions, such as the global amplification of inflation via dominant US dollar invoicing, partial trade diversion, and alternative monetary policy frameworks that attenuate monetary tightening and output contraction. Quantitative assessments of tariffs enacted up to 26 May 2025 and of an escalation scenario indicate significant global output losses and heightened inflationary pressures, requiring widespread policy rate increases. Further escalation of the trade conflict magnifies these effects. These findings quantify the economic cost of tariff related trade disputes and highlight the challenges central banks face in navigating the trade off between price stability and growth.
- JEL Code
- F12 : International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- 22 September 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3116Details
- Abstract
- Europe’s lack of energy independence raises concerns about its vulnerability to external energy shocks, such as Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This paper examines how energy shocks impact firm-level investment, comparing European and US firm responses. Using global oil supply news shocks, S&P’s Compustat data, and a local projections approach, the study reveals that European firms significantly cut capital and R&D expenditures after an oil shock, unlike US firms. The disparity is primarily driven by financially constrained firms in energy-intensive sectors. Additionally, differences in capital market structures play a role, as European firms relying more on market-based financing reduce investment by less. Lastly, our analysis confirms that the US shale revolution was a contributing factor in shaping Europe’s relative vulnerability. These findings highlight the need for national and EU policies to securethe energy supply, lower prices, and deepen capital markets, enhancing resilience and future competitiveness amid energy volatility.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 22 September 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Since the pandemic, working from home has become more common. According to 2025 data, around 20% of employees in the euro area have a hybrid working pattern, i.e. they work from home between two and four days per week. Although a substantial share of workers (44%) work from home at least one day per week, most workers would not be willing to accept a pay cut in exchange for hybrid working possibilities. However, those employees who value being able to work from home would be willing to forgo up to 8.7% of their wages for this option. This suggests that remote working flexibility can play a role in attracting and retaining workers, especially when labour markets are tight.
- JEL Code
- J28 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Safety, Job Satisfaction, Related Public Policy
J33 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Compensation Packages, Payment Methods
- 22 September 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Recent trade tensions and tariff announcements are significantly influencing the behaviour and expectations of European consumers. As revealed by the June 2025 Consumer Expectations Survey, consumers expect tariffs to drive up inflation, weaken household finances and dampen economic growth. In response, consumers are reducing overall spending or switching away from US products. While lower-income households are likely to cut back on spending, high-income households are more likely to substitute goods. These findings highlight the tangible impact of trade tensions and uncertainty introduced by tariffs on inflation and growth expectations, consumer behaviour and, possibly, broader economic developments.
- JEL Code
- D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
- 18 September 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3115Details
- Abstract
- In this paper, we empirically investigate how suitability concerns detected by the SSM in the fitness and propriety of management body appointees impact the performance of European banks in the period 2014-2023. We provide evidence that management body appointees where the assessment of the supervisory authorities raised concerns, had a negative impact on the bank’s future performance. The negative effect can be attributed to appointees where the supervisory assessment revealed such severe concerns that ancillary measures were imposed. These results outline the importance of the SSM’s work for safeguarding the quality of bank’s corporate governance and suggest that the Supervisors seem to be effective in pointing out those appointees that exhibit severe concerns. In addition, we find that the designation of female appointees by supervised entities increased the bank’s performance sustainably. This result indicates that stimulating diversity, in terms of gender, in the management bodies of banks positively contributed to bank performance.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G30 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→General
M14 : Business Administration and Business Economics, Marketing, Accounting→Business Administration→Corporate Culture, Diversity, Social Responsibility
Επιτόκια
| Διευκόλυνση αποδοχής καταθέσεων | 2,00 % |
| Πράξεις κύριας αναχρηματοδότησης (σταθερού επιτοκίου) | 2,15 % |
| Διευκόλυνση οριακής χρηματοδότησης | 2,40 % |
Ρυθμός πληθωρισμού
Περισσότερα για τον πληθωρισμόΣυναλλαγματικές ισοτιμίες
| USD | US dollar | 1.1739 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 174.70 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.87480 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9344 |
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